{
    "success": true,
    "data": {
        "id": 1564986,
        "msgid": "economist-predicts-rupiah-to-stabilise-at-rp16-800-per-us-dollar-by-year-end-1771658371",
        "date": "2026-02-20 17:36:06",
        "title": "Economist predicts rupiah to stabilise at Rp16,800 per US dollar by year-end",
        "author": "",
        "source": "ANTARA_ID",
        "tags": "",
        "topic": "Finance",
        "summary": "Permata Bank's chief economist Josua Pardede forecasts the rupiah will settle between Rp16,700 and Rp16,800 per US dollar by the end of 2026, supported by assessments from MSCI and Moody's. He noted the currency remains undervalued relative to economic fundamentals and could strengthen once external sentiment eases, whilst cautioning that interest rate transmission to the banking sector remains constrained by tight funding costs.",
        "content": "<p>Jakarta (ANTARA) - Permata Bank Chief Economist Josua Pardede has\npredicted that the rupiah exchange rate will stabilise at between\nRp16,700 and Rp16,800 per US dollar by the end of 2026.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn the short term, due to the assessment effects from MSCI and\nMoody\u2019s, we expect the rupiah exchange rate to remain relatively stable\nby the end of the year, in the range of Rp16,700 to Rp16,800,\u201d Josua\nsaid during the Economic Outlook 2026 online event in Jakarta on\nFriday.<\/p>\n<p>However, Josua argued that the rupiah currently remains at an\nundervalued level compared with economic fundamentals. He therefore\nbelieves that should market sentiment begin to ease, the rupiah has the\npotential to move back towards its fundamental value.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt is very possible for the rupiah to return to its fundamental\nlevel. Because once these external sentiment factors begin to subside,\nthe equilibrium point will return to its fundamental level,\u201d he\nsaid.<\/p>\n<p>On the domestic front, the transmission of interest rate cuts to the\nbanking sector is considered still limited. One contributing factor is\ntight funding costs resulting from competition for deposits, including\nlarge depositors who continue to demand high deposit rates. This\nsituation is seen as restraining the reduction of lending rates.<\/p>\n<p>Nevertheless, Josua assessed that banking liquidity remains well\nmaintained, supported by the placement of Excess Budget Balances (SAL),\nmeaning the transmission of interest rate cuts is expected to continue\ngradually. However, he emphasised that the speed of transmission may\ndiffer between banks due to varying liquidity conditions and risk\nappetites.<\/p>\n<p>Regarding rupiah movements, Josua advised that members of the public\nwithout direct exposure to exchange rates need not panic. He noted that\nwhilst the rupiah level around Rp17,000 per US dollar is similar to the\n1997-1998 crisis period, the context is entirely different.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat we need to bear in mind is that the conditions surrounding the\nrupiah\u2019s weakening at that time were vastly different from today\u2019s\nconditions. Our economic fundamentals are also far different,\u201d he\nsaid.<\/p>",
        "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/economist-predicts-rupiah-to-stabilise-at-rp16-800-per-us-dollar-by-year-end-1771658371",
        "image": ""
    },
    "sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
    "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}