East Asian economy forecast to grow 5.8 percent in 2003<\/p>\n
Agence France-Presse, Tokyo<\/p>\n
East Asian economies, excluding Japan, are forecast to grow
\n5.8 percent in 2003, the same rate as this year, as brisk
\ninvestments offset slumping exports, a government-run trade body
\nsaid here Wednesday.<\/p>\n
But the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) warned it
\nmay cut the projection if the impact of the Oct. 12 terrorist
\nattacks on Indonesia's Bali island continued to hurt Southeast
\nAsian economies, or the United States launched a military
\ncampaign against Iraq.<\/p>\n
\"The 10 economies are to mark moderate growth of 5.8 percent
\nin 2003, unchanged from this year,\" said Mitsuru Toida, director-
\ngeneral at JETRO's Institute of Developing Economies.<\/p>\n
\"Investment is expected to recover in the region next year
\nwhile exports are seen to be weaker than this year in some
\ncountries, including China.<\/p>\n
\"But the forecast will need a revision if tension in the Gulf
\nincreases or the aftermath of the terrorist attack in Bali is
\nprolonged.\"<\/p>\n
The regional economic outlook covered China, Hong Kong,
\nSingapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the
\nPhilippines, Thailand and Vietnam.<\/p>\n
Indonesia's economy is seen inching up to 3.2 percent in 2003
\nfrom 3.0 percent this year.<\/p>\n
\"In 2003, Indonesia will see investment and exports bounce
\nback to a positive increase rate of 2.4 percent and 2.8 percent,
\nrespectively,\" JETRO said in the report.<\/p>\n
\"However, private consumption and government consumption in
\n2003 will increase by slower rates.\"<\/p>\n
Steady domestic demand would help China grow 7.6 percent, just
\nslightly lower than the 7.9 percent rate expected in 2002, the
\ninstitute said.<\/p>\n
South Korea will see private spending slow, but nevertheless
\nshould achieve sound economic expansion of 5.5 percent, compared
\nwith 6.0 percent growth expected this year.<\/p>\n
Private investment will recover in Taiwan and Singapore, with
\nthese economies forecast to grow by 3.3 percent and 3.2 percent,
\nrespectively.<\/p>\n
In Hong Kong, both private investment and private consumption
\nwill increase after easing this year, but economic activity will
\nremain slow at just 1.7 percent, compared with 1.2 percent in
\n2002.<\/p>\n
Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam
\nwill expand by a combined 4.6 percent, up 0.5 percentage points
\nfrom 2002.<\/p>\n
In Thailand and Malaysia, strong exports and investment will
\nsupport growth of 5.0 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively.
\nThailand is seen to rise 4.6 percent this year, with Malaysia at
\n3.9 percent.<\/p>\n
Growth in the Philippines is projected at 4.2 percent,
\nunchanged from 2002. In Vietnam, exports will continue trending
\nupwards to fuel continued strong growth of 7.0 percent next year.<\/p>\n
In the outlook, JETRO also said the yen's exchange rate was
\nexpected to be 120 against the dollar, while the East Asian
\ncurrencies are seen to remain stable. The combined inflation rate
\nfor the region is expected to be around 1.6 percent, it said.<\/p>",
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