E. Asia Summit's birthing pains<\/p>\n
Eric Teo Chu Cheow
\nThe Straits Times
\nAsia News Network
\nSingapore<\/p>\n
At last October's meeting of ASEAN heads of government in
\nVientiane, Laos, it was announced that an East Asian Summit will
\nbe launched by Malaysia (as host of the next ASEAN Summit)
\ntowards the end of this year. Many political observers in the
\nregion proclaimed the birth of a \"new Asia\" -- breaking new
\nground in Asian integration and community building.<\/p>\n
Key among the advocates of that \"new Asia\" were Malaysian
\nPrime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and Philippine President
\nGloria Arroyo, who called for ASEAN to \"embrace China, Japan,
\nSouth Korea and India\" in a larger grouping. Such an economic
\nbloc, according to Arroyo, could then \"hold its own\" in future
\nnegotiations with the United States, Europe or other emerging
\neconomic entities.<\/p>\n
Announcing the East Asian Summit while in Vientiane, Badawi
\nsaid the decision was an ASEAN consensus, reached after Indonesia
\nformally accepted the idea to transform the \"ASEAN+3\" framework
\ninto the EAS, with possibly additional countries like India,
\nAustralia and New Zealand invited to join the new grouping.<\/p>\n
But recent indications point to differences of opinion and
\nstrategy among ASEAN members in fleshing out details of the EAS,
\nnotably in defining its future membership and the modalities of
\norganization. East Asia seems inflicted with the pains of birth.
\nWorse, it may eventually be stillborn.<\/p>\n
Sources from North-east Asia say ASEAN could not agree on
\nwhich countries should be invited to the inaugural EAS apart from
\nthe ASEAN+3 -- that is, the 10 ASEAN members, plus China, Japan
\nand South Korea.<\/p>\n
One ASEAN member also pressed for India to join the \"new\" East
\nAsia, while another surprisingly pitched for the inclusion of
\nAustralia and New Zealand. The other countries remain non-
\ncommittal and seem to advocate keeping the present ASEAN+3
\nformula.<\/p>\n
Malaysia, as the next ASEAN chair and host of the summit, has
\nyet to seek a consensus, but chances are that it will eventually
\ntilt towards a 14-member grouping, one that includes India.<\/p>\n
Besides the membership list, ASEAN could face problems
\ndefining the EAS' organizational framework. Japan has pressed for
\na system of co-chairmanship (with the chair rotating between an
\nASEAN and a non-ASEAN country) and a \"tiered\" system consisting
\nof an inner core of ASEAN+3, a second tier of relations and
\ncooperation with extra-regional players like India, Australia and
\nNew Zealand, and a third with the U.S.<\/p>\n
As of now, ASEAN is more inclined towards retaining the chair
\nfor its members (on a rotational basis). It is also disinclined
\nto introduce a tiered system, which allows non-regional powers to
\njoin the exclusive club.<\/p>\n
In fact, Indonesian diplomats say that Jakarta has some
\nreservations about launching the EAS formally. President Susilo
\nBambang Yudhoyono gave it the go-ahead while in Vientiane only
\nbecause, one, it was his first ASEAN summit, and two, he had been
\ngiven to understand that the meeting this year would be a once-
\noff affair.<\/p>\n
Jakarta fears that an EAS will mean ASEAN being \"diluted\" into
\na much bigger grouping. The center of gravity will shift away
\nfrom ASEAN, with bigger and more powerful countries in North-east
\nAsia holding clout and influence in the new grouping. Jakarta
\nwould prefer to consolidate ASEAN first, whilst continuing with
\nthe present ASEAN+3 framework. In any case, issues discussed at
\nthe EAS will be very similar to those tackled at ASEAN+3 forums.<\/p>\n
Malaysia, the main advocate of the EAS, sees in it the birth
\nof a \"new\" Asia and a lasting legacy for former Malaysian prime
\nminister Mahathir Mohamad, who first promulgated the idea of an
\nEast Asian Economic Caucus back in 1990.<\/p>\n
Underpinning Kuala Lumpur's recently renewed push is a belief
\nin a need to balance the U.S. and the European Union -- a belief
\nwhich finds receptive ears in the Chinese leadership.<\/p>\n
Even as Kuala Lumpur is pitching to host the EAS Secretariat,
\nChina is also expected to lobby hard to host the second EAS next
\nyear on Chinese soil.<\/p>\n
Japan, on the other hand, wants to keep the U.S. engaged in
\nthe region and in this new entity in some form, which explains
\nits proposed \"tiered\" system of cooperation and relations within
\nthe new EAS framework.<\/p>\n
Washington, commonly deemed \"the most influential non-Asian
\nEast Asian participant\", could prove the biggest divisive issue
\nin any attempt to forge an East Asian grouping.<\/p>\n
Sino-Japanese rivalry, already rampant and obvious, could
\nheighten over the strategic future of Washington in the region.<\/p>\n
The EAS would provide the appropriate theater for this
\nincreasing rivalry, against the backdrop of an even bigger
\nrivalry between Beijing and Washington in Asia.<\/p>\n
Of equal interest today is the firm intent of India to join
\nany East Asian grouping. As one senior Indian academic told me at
\nan India-inspired High Level Conference on Asian Integration,
\nheld in Tokyo last November, New Delhi is determined not to \"miss
\nthe first train\" of Asian integration.<\/p>\n
Saddled with a troubled neighborhood (terrorism, Kashmir, a
\nroyal coup d'etat in Nepal, growing Islamic militancy in
\nBangladesh, among other problems), India wants to avoid at all
\ncosts becoming a \"second-class member\" of Asia. So India is
\nseeking to be incorporated into the EAS' inner core -- at
\nwhatever price.<\/p>\n
So what lies ahead for the East Asian Summit?<\/p>\n
Given the emblematic issues of Washington's and New Delhi's
\nfuture roles in the \"new\" Asia, ASEAN and ASEAN+3 could be split
\nright down the middle.<\/p>\n
ASEAN, that venerable institution of 40 years, is much too
\nvaluable for regional stability to be relegated to the dustbin of
\nhistory.<\/p>\n
But, after 40 years, perhaps a search for new or additional
\npartners is not too surprising either. But what the new dance
\npatterns will be remains to be seen.<\/p>\n
The writer is the council secretary of the Singapore Institute
\nfor International Affairs.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/e-asia-summits-birthing-pains-1447899208",
"image": ""
},
"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}