Don't write Golkar off<\/p>\n
Many political analysts have expressed second thoughts about
\nGolkar's supposed slim chance in next week's elections. With
\nvoting just a week away, the mood has switched from one of
\ndismission to one of dread that Golkar could extend its winning
\nstreak to seven consecutive polls, even with a heavily reduced
\nshare of the vote. The bottom line is that Golkar might still
\nclinch a significant tally of votes to secure the election of
\nincumbent B.J. Habibie as Indonesia's president in November.<\/p>\n
One analyst, Hermawan Sulistyo of the Research Institute for
\nDemocracy and Peace, has done his calculations of the complex
\nelection process in Indonesia. In an article in this newspaper
\nlast week, Hermawan said there is still a high chance of Golkar
\nwinning a significant number of votes in the elections. Through a
\ncoalition with other factions in the People's Consultative
\nAssembly, including the military, regional representatives and
\nsocietal group representatives, Golkar could secure the
\npresidency for Habibie in November. He said Golkar would only
\nneed to win 25 percent of the vote, a realistic target, to
\nachieve this goal.<\/p>\n
Golkar has certainly put up a fierce fight in the current
\nelection campaign period, even as it faces a growing backlash in
\nmany regions, including Jakarta. The party has continued to
\norganize open rallies in spite of threats and intimidation. On
\none occasion in Jakarta, it even deployed its own armed guards.
\nAnything the opposition did, Golkar made a point of showing it
\ncould do it too, and sometimes better. In South Sulawesi, Golkar
\nsupporters set fire to the office of the National Mandate Party
\n(PAN).<\/p>\n
With Golkar figures controlling most, if not all of the TV
\nstations in the country, and many regional radio stations, the
\nparty has access to the masses that new parties cannot reach.
\nGolkar has a massive amount of funds, probably unmatched even if
\nall the other big parties would pool their resources together.
\nGolkar can draw from this to finance its open, and also covert,
\ncampaign operations.<\/p>\n
With Golkar flexing its huge muscles in the run-up to the
\nelections, no one can write it off too easily. Having been in
\npower for more than 32 years, Golkar is not likely to take defeat
\nlying down. On the contrary, it is bent on winning the polls,
\neven at the expense of risking a confrontation with the proreform
\nforces.<\/p>\n
The question on everybody's minds today, however, is whether
\nthe election results, whatever they are, will be accepted by the
\npeople. What if Golkar wins a significant part of the vote? Given
\nthe backlash against Golkar these past few days, it is difficult
\nto envisage that this anger will stop, or that it is even
\nstoppable, if Golkar does win. The prospect of more ugly violence
\nis too dreadful to consider, but it is a possibility.<\/p>\n
But even more worrisome is the prospect of another five years
\nunder a Golkar and Habibie administration. Irrespective of their
\nclaims of having adopted reforms, the past year alone shows
\nclearly that the current administrators are anything but
\nreformists, whatever they claim to be.<\/p>\n
Some of the political reforms introduced in the last 12
\nmonths, including this election process and the greater tolerance
\nof political freedom and press freedom, were not the result of
\ngenuine policy initiatives from the government. They resulted
\nfrom strong public pressure exerted on the administration, which
\nhas no constitutional legitimacy, much less popular support. On
\nmany other points, the government has shown its anti-reform
\nstance. These include the investigations of former president
\nSoeharto's alleged corruption and other injustices committed by
\nthe military before and under the present administration.<\/p>\n
If Golkar and Habibie, with all their illegitimate claims to
\npower, have managed to slow down the reform process these last 12
\nmonths, one can be sure that an elected Golkar government and
\nPresident Habibie would stop the process completely, and even
\nreverse the process when and where it is convenient to them.<\/p>\n
There is only one thing that can prevent Golkar and Habibie
\nfrom returning to office, and that is for all the major pro-
\nreform groups to join forces. The leaders of the Indonesian
\nDemocratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), the National
\nMandate Party (PAN) and the National Awakening Party (PKB) have
\ndrawn the battle line for these elections: Reform vs. Status Quo.<\/p>\n
Megawati Soekarnoputri, Amien Rais and Abdurrahman Wahid may
\nbe ideologically separated, and are indeed competing against one
\nanother in these elections, but they know that they have a common
\nenemy to beat first: the status quo forces in the form of Golkar
\nand Habibie. They have also indicated that they are prepared to
\nforge a coalition, after the votes are counted, if that's what it
\ntakes to beat the status quo. Given that Golkar is fiercely
\nfighting to win votes, the three parties might in fact be called
\nto task to form that coalition government and spare the nation
\nfrom more suffering and misery under Golkar and Habibie.<\/p>",
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