Don't ignore election impact, says analyst<\/p>\n
By Angela Romano<\/p>\n
BRISBANE, Australia (JP): The forthcoming election will still
\ninfluence the political processes in Indonesia, even though it
\nwill have little impact on the leadership structure, a senior
\nIndonesian political analyst said Thursday.<\/p>\n
Hadi Soesastro, the director of the Centre for Strategic and
\nInternational Studies in Jakarta, said the government had
\nobserved indications of voter dissatisfaction and community
\nanger, and the nuances of the election results would be closely
\nscrutinized.<\/p>\n
Speaking to a meeting of Indonesian and Australian lecturers,
\nstudents and other intellectuals at Griffith University, Hadi
\ndisagreed with analysts, such as Indonesian sociologist Arief
\nBudiman, who argue the election will not affect Indonesia's
\npolitical situation.<\/p>\n
He agreed the election is unlikely to change the makeup of
\nIndonesia's leadership, but said the importance of the election
\nwill lie in shifts in voting patterns, such as the expected surge
\nin the number of people choosing not to vote.<\/p>\n
\"It is predicted that Golput could reach up to 15 percent,
\ncompared with 9 percent in the last general election,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Golput, or golongan putih, is the Indonesian term for
\ndiscontented voters who abstain from voting or make their vote
\ninvalid.<\/p>\n
\"Even in the villages people know what the Golput hand signal
\nmeans.\"<\/p>\n
The leadership is also sensitive to indications of a slump in
\nsupport for Golkar in key areas, with predictions that Golkar
\nmight only win 40 percent of the vote in East Java and Greater
\nJakarta.<\/p>\n
Hadi said this election period is more tense than previous
\nelections because of greater community discontent.<\/p>\n
\"In 1977 there were demonstrations and tension, but the unrest
\nwas mainly confined to students. Now it is more the people (who
\nare involved).<\/p>\n
\"I don't think the recent riots and unrest have been
\nengineered, as many people think. It is just that people are
\nangry.\"<\/p>\n
Feelings of tension are coupled with a lack of confidence
\nabout the ability of the security apparatus to control the
\nsituation, he said.<\/p>\n
Hadi said waning support for the Indonesian Democratic Party
\n(PDI) was an important social indicator. Some estimates suggest
\nthe party will not get more than 9 percent of the vote, the
\nthink-tank director said.<\/p>\n
\"Soerjadi (the new PDI chief) is still hoping that at the
\neleventh hour (ousted PDI leader) Megawati (Soekarnoputri) will
\ncome in and save the PDI by bringing her support to the party.<\/p>\n
\"On the other hand, many PDI supporters are still waiting for
\na fatwa (edict) from her or some statement that she will not
\nvote.<\/p>\n
\"The dilemma for them is that if that happens, most of the
\nvotes will go to Golkar.\"<\/p>\n
Hadi said that although the United Development Party (PPP)
\nlooks set to increase its share of overall votes, \"there is
\nsomething of an uncertainty factor that PDI votes will be
\nredirected to the PPP\".<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/dont-ignore-election-impact-says-analyst-1447893297",
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