Demystifying Abdurrahman<\/p>\n
By Michael Vatikiotis<\/p>\n
HONG KONG (JP): Of the many stories floating around Jakarta
\nabout Gus Dur, one of them is a telling indicator of his
\nqualities as a politician.<\/p>\n
Back in 1990 Gus Dur was one of a number of Jakarta
\nintellectuals who formed a new dissident grouping known as Forum
\nDemokrasi. After several meetings it was decided to search for a
\nleader for the group. As one of the founding members, Gus Dur's
\nname was mentioned.<\/p>\n
But wait, said one member of the group. Shouldn't the leader
\nof an organization dedicated to the pursuit of democracy be
\ndemocratically elected?<\/p>\n
Gus Dur said nothing. Then, another member quickly opposed the
\nmove. His argument was that since the group was facing an
\nauthoritarian foe -- namely the military -- it should dispense
\nwith democratic niceties in order to avoid divisive squabbling
\nand focus on the struggle for democracy. Gus Dur again said
\nnothing, and was duly appointed leader of Forum Demokrasi without
\nan election.<\/p>\n
Most observers consider that Gus Dur stands for ideals --
\nspecifically democracy and religious tolerance. So when he was
\nelected president by the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) on
\nOct. 20, 1999, the country and its friends breathed a sigh of
\nrelief. Some of those who know him well held their breath in a
\nmoment of apprehension, however.<\/p>\n
It wasn't just that the man has suffered two strokes and is
\nclearly unable to do much with his failing eyesight. Neither was
\nit his mercurial and humorous personality. It was more than
\nanything his nature as a politician that was some cause for
\nworry.<\/p>\n
Good politicians do not make committed idealists. Political
\nsurvival requires flexibility and, above all, the skillful
\nmanipulation of ideas.<\/p>\n
Those who know him suspected that Gus Dur won the presidency
\nbecause of skillful manipulation and a degree of deceit. Perhaps
\na measure of luck was also involved. Other candidates either
\nlacked ability or appeal. But otherwise, given the odds, a lot of
\nit was clever politicking. Gus Dur simply outfoxed everybody else
\n-- much as he had predicted he would in the weeks before the
\nelection. Some time before the MPR Special Session, Gus Dur
\napproached a senior newspaper editor to ask him to release a
\nmember of staff -- so that she could work for him \"when I'm in
\nthe palace\".<\/p>\n
So if he is not an idealist, what kind of leader is Gus Dur,
\nand where is he taking the country and its vulnerable fledgling
\ndemocracy?<\/p>\n
Indonesian politics lacks institutional checks and balances
\nand is therefore a treacherous arena. Loyalty is fickle;
\npersonality is paramount, and patronage rules.<\/p>\n
Gus Dur has known the way things work ever since he sat at the
\nfeet of his eminent grandfather who served in Sukarno's Cabinet.<\/p>\n
In fact, he has spent his entire career in the political
\narena. He managed to steer the country's largest Muslim
\norganization, Nahdlatul Ulama, through a period of anti-Islamic
\nfeeling. He helped launch a dissident group in the 1990s that
\nmanaged to escape persecution. He championed the cause of
\ndemocracy while at the same time lending support to its most
\nardent enemy, president Soeharto.<\/p>\n
Gus Dur rose to prominence, not because of his idealism, but
\nbecause he knew how to make and break political deals. No
\nIndonesian politician has managed to threaten the government one
\nyear with a mob -- and support it's sham election campaign the
\nnext.<\/p>\n
There is another seldom-mentioned aspect of Gus Dur that
\ndisturbs some people. As much as he speaks foreign languages and
\nlikes Beethoven, Gus Dur is also a thoroughly traditional figure.
\nHe plays well to the grass roots with his manipulation of
\ntraditional symbols of power -- jocularity, spiritualism and
\nunpredictability.<\/p>\n
Like his predecessor, Soeharto, Gus Dur makes sudden twists
\nand turns on the political stage and plays divide and rule. He
\nlikes it to be known in a subtle way that he consults the spirits
\nof ancient kings -- seeking inner strength from the whole panoply
\nof Javanese icons from Muslim saints to the sultan's of Mataram
\nand Majapahit -- and even the grave of founding father Sukarno.<\/p>\n
Above all he is the quintessential dalang (puppeteer)
\npolitician -- which is all about looking as if you control
\neverything around you rather than actually doing so.<\/p>\n
All this is to say that Gus Dur is not one-dimensional -- not
\nsimply an idealist. He is more accurately a political animal with
\nkeen instincts, which means we can't take his ideals for granted.<\/p>\n
For all his support for democracy there is precious little
\nevidence in the first eight months of his leadership that the
\ninstitutions of democracy so badly needed in Indonesia have been
\nreinforced.<\/p>\n
In fact, as political foes circled him, he lashed out and
\nthreatened the mass arrest of his opponents. For all his passion
\nfor tolerance, he was unable to stop the Laskar Jihad from
\nreaching North Maluku -- and he insists on saying that warring
\nlocal communities should sort out their own problems.<\/p>\n
Supporters and sympathizers like to pin the blame for Gus
\nDur's problems on his enemies. Losers from the old regime are
\nseen as taking advantage of Gus Dur and his family to destabilize
\nthe government.<\/p>\n
Although hard to prove, that is undoubtedly so, in some
\ninstances -- but not all. Corruption has crept back into the
\npalace because Gus Dur badly needs money to build his own support
\nbase and kick-start a political machine. His National Awakening
\nParty (PKB) party came third in the June 1999 elections and other
\nparties are coalescing in opposition to him.<\/p>\n
Gus Dur admitted recently to discussing the use of state funds
\nfor political ends. This is a problem that plagues all reformist
\ngovernments in their early stages: You need a slush fund to buy
\nthe tools needed to clear out the drains.<\/p>\n
Of course, realpolitik dictates that idealism becomes the
\nfirst victim of strong leadership. Gus Dur promised in the early
\nweeks of his presidency to help former Malaysian deputy prime
\nminister Anwar Ibrahim, who is languishing in jail. Just three
\nmonths later he had embraced Anwar's persecutor, Prime Minister
\nMahathir Mohamad, and struck a deal for cheap rice. So much for
\nideals.<\/p>\n
Successful consolidation should give Gus Dur the chance to
\nexecute some of his ideas and implement his ideals. But
\nconsolidation has proved difficult because of severe economic
\nproblems and a disgruntled elite that cannot bury differences and
\nwork for the good of the country.<\/p>\n
So he has turned instead to close family members and trusted
\nfriends. They, it seems, do their best to keep the bad news from
\nreaching him -- perhaps out of consideration for his frail
\nhealth. Trusted economic advisors and Cabinet colleagues are left
\nto guess how the President has arrived at his decisions --
\nbecause he certainly has not been listening to them. A real worry
\nfor the future is that Gus Dur may be unaware of what is wrong.<\/p>\n
That's what happened to Soeharto in his final years. The
\nculture of power in Indonesia insulates the leader from criticism
\nby clothing him in warm praise. Sycophancy plagues the
\npresidential office.<\/p>\n
A senior Cabinet minister from the old regime once
\ndemonstrated that he could get his secretary to agree that the
\nsun was shining even if it was dark and wet outside.<\/p>\n
Gus Dur has also been convinced of his rectitude by the
\nplaudits he received from overseas in the first months of his
\npresidency. Foreign support is now waning in the absence of
\nresults. Predictably Gus Dur has resorted to making nationalist
\nthreats.<\/p>\n
But let's make no mistake about Gus Dur; he isn't one to rely
\non anybody. He has a long track record of distaste for alignment.
\nOn his visit to Cuba, Fidel Castro actually came to visit Gus Dur
\nin his hotel.<\/p>\n
But perhaps the saddest prospect is that Gus Dur will start
\nlosing perspective because of his physical ailments. Two
\nsuccessive strokes have made him moody and intolerant. He gets
\nangry with close family members and often looks confused in
\npublic situations.<\/p>\n
On several occasions he has appeared insensitive -- like going
\nahead with a recent overseas trip instead of visiting victims of
\nthe Bengkulu earthquake. His tendency to crack jokes in public
\ngatherings is said to be a psychological byproduct of blindness
\n-- a need to hear other people present and be assured of their
\napproval.<\/p>\n
For all these reasons it is hard to take refuge in the idea
\nthat Gus Dur is an idealist. This in turn reduces him in stature
\nand strips him of any kind of defense on moral grounds. Policy is
\ndrifting and the very same popular forces that drove Soeharto out
\nof office are mustering again. Gus Dur remains the best of a bad
\nbunch for young radicals who experienced the power of the mob in
\n1998. His political opponents are clearly concerned that his
\npremature removal would not necessarily win public support.<\/p>\n
But if the economy does not improve and the whiff of scandal
\nis not dispelled from the palace, the students will be back. A
\npity, though. Indonesia does not need another change of political
\ncourse.<\/p>\n
It took a good two decades for the rot to accumulate and
\nforeign and local support to abandon Soeharto. Sadly there is
\nalready an air of decay hanging over Merdeka Palace and many
\nforeign governments are mulling over alternatives. But expect the
\nGus Dur presidency to cling to power. Rather like the short-lived
\nreigns of later Ottoman sultans when the empire was in decline,
\neveryone can see the need for change, but worries what their
\nfuture will be once the music stops.<\/p>\n
The writer is managing editor of the Far Eastern Economic
\nReview. This article was taken from Questioning Gus Dur, a book
\nnewly published by The Jakarta Post.<\/p>",
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