Czarnikow sees lower RI sugar output in 1995<\/p>\n
LONDON (Reuter): Indonesia's 1995 sugar production should fall
\nto around 2.30 million tons of sugar from 2.46 million last year
\ndue to the effects of a severe drought, trade house C.Czarnikow
\nsaid in its latest report.<\/p>\n
This would imply a statistical shortfall of some 700,000 tons
\nafter consumption was discounted, Czarnikow said.<\/p>\n
"Due to the severe drought experienced in Indonesia earlier in
\nthe year, production estimates for 1995 are seen to be slipping
\nback to somewhere in the region of 2.30 million tons, relative to
\nthe 2.46 million during 1994," the report said.<\/p>\n
It estimated 1995 consumption at around three million tons.<\/p>\n
"However, considerable efforts appear to have been made by
\nauthorities in addressing the supply shortfall, as some 300,000
\ntons of imports are widely reported to have been contracted."<\/p>\n
Last month the Indonesian state commodities regulator said
\n1995 sugar output was expected to total 2.438 million tons.<\/p>\n
The Indonesia Sugar Association has forecast 2.22 million tons
\nbut admitted this was based on data available at end-August.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the London-based International Sugar Organization
\n(ISO), worried over rising world sugar output, has warned
\nproducing countries against consequences of oversupply, its top
\nofficials said.<\/p>\n
"I'm a little bit worried, if you look into plans everybody
\nhas," ISO executive director Peter Baron told Reuters in an
\ninterview.<\/p>\n
Sugar conference<\/p>\n
Baron was in Delhi to attend a three-day international
\nconference on sugar.<\/p>\n
"India wants to become the biggest producer, the Thais are
\nshowing figures which are phenomenal. Indonesia will improve,
\nCuba will increase again, the Australians are under long-term
\nexpansion plans," he said.<\/p>\n
ISO officials estimated 1995\/96 (October\/September) world
\nproduction at 119.5 million tons and consumption at 117 million
\ntons, leaving a surplus of 2.5 million tons.<\/p>\n
"There is still a lot of consumption potential in developing
\ncountries but...their purchasing power is limited," Baron said.<\/p>\n
ISO officials expect sugar prices to come under pressure in
\nthe first quarter of calendar 1996 because of over-supply.<\/p>\n
"I think countries will have to think where to sell their
\nsugar in four to five years and what kind of markets they
\nenvisage," Baron said.<\/p>\n
He said import markets were not expanding at the same pace as
\nproduction.<\/p>\n
"Do countries, when they expand their capacities, take into
\nconsideration what could happen in three or four years if
\neverybody increases production," Baron said.<\/p>\n
"We give them warnings. It is not in the interests of
\nexporters and it is not in the interests of importers. Volatility
\nof markets is harmful to both sides," he said.<\/p>",
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