Crisis situation may increase the death rate<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): Crime, natural disasters, epidemics and
\nstarvation brought on by sheer poverty could increase the rate of
\ndeath in the next five years, a demographer said Wednesday.<\/p>\n
This prediction was among the worst of four \"scenarios\"
\ndiscussed in a one-day seminar on demographic projections and
\nparameters after the economic crisis.<\/p>\n
Aris Ananta of the University of Indonesia's Demography
\nInstitute, said the number of people living below the poverty
\nline would decrease \"simply because they are wiped out by death\".<\/p>\n
These deaths would also be caused by \"wars\", he said, without
\nfurther elaboration, apparently hinting at the numerous internal
\nconflicts in the country. Maternal mortality, he also said, would
\nrise as abortions would likely increase.<\/p>\n
The worst-case scenario of prolonged economic crisis and riots
\nin the next five years could bring down participation in family
\nplanning programs from 55 percent in 1998 to 47.5 percent in the
\nyear 2003, said Maswar Noerdin, first assistant to the State
\nMinister of Population.<\/p>\n
\"We have to admit the fact that in the next five years the
\nfamily planning program will entirely depend on the political and
\neconomic situation here,\" he said.<\/p>\n
State Minister of Population Ida Bagus Oka reiterated that in
\nanticipation of this prediction, the government was subsidizing
\ncontraceptives for poor families.<\/p>\n
Oka, who also chairs the National Family Planning Board
\n(BKKBN), which organized the seminar, said, \"There is a Rp 58.6
\nbillion fund from the state budget and various foreign grants
\nallocated for this free contraceptive program.\"<\/p>\n
\"But you have to remember that we cannot possibly continue
\ngiving free contraceptives forever. We have budget limitations
\ntoo,\" he said.<\/p>\n
He also stated that the latest data from BKKBN indicates that
\nthere are more than 27 million participants in family planning
\nprograms, out of over 33 million fertile couples in the country.<\/p>\n
\"The failure to conduct family planning will lead us to be the
\nworld's sixth largest country by the year 2050,\" the minister
\nsaid.<\/p>\n
A representative of the Central Bureau of Statistics told the
\nseminar that by the end of 2003 the country would have a
\npopulation of 217.4 million people.<\/p>\n
A better scenario, Maswar said, was if the economic crisis
\ncontinued without the riots, and those couples in family planning
\nprograms only declined from 55 percent to 50 percent. Of course,
\nit would be better still if the economy was a little better, and
\nfamily planning participants remained at 55 percent.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile a researcher with the Indonesian Institute of
\nSciences, Riwanto Tirtosudarmo, spoke on political and population
\nchange. He warned that in the spirit of reform, the government
\nshould bear in mind that \"people should no longer be treated as
\nin the past.\" Population-related programs which in the past were
\ntarget-oriented \"should be changed to an approach which meets the
\nreal needs of the public.\" He did not specifically name the
\nfamily planning program, which has been a target of critics
\nsaying there was use of force in some cases in the past. (edt)<\/p>",
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