The Executive Director of the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE)\nIndonesia, Mohammad Faisal, estimates that Indonesia\u2019s inflation in\nSeptember 2026 will range between 0.1% and 0.2% on a monthly basis,\nrelatively similar to August.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf inflation in September follows, I think it will be more or less\nthe same as August. September might be between 0.1 to 0.2 per cent,\u201d\nFaisal told ANTARA in Jakarta on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded August 2026 inflation at 0.21 per\ncent month-to-month (mtm) and 3.19 per cent year-on-year (yoy). For the\ncalendar year, inflation up to August was recorded at 1.86 per cent.<\/p>\n
According to Faisal, the sources of inflationary pressure in\nSeptember are expected to be relatively similar to the previous month,\nwith food being the primary factor to watch. He noted that dry weather\nconditions caused by El Ni\u00f1o have the potential to disrupt the\nproduction of several food commodities, ultimately affecting supply.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor several food ingredients in September, because we are\nexperiencing El Ni\u00f1o, there will likely be constraints in terms of\nproduction due to the dry, hot season affecting various food\ncommodities,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Bank Indonesia (BI) noted that the volatile food group experienced\n0.88 per cent monthly inflation in August 2026, reversing from a\ndeflation of 1.68 per cent in July. This inflation was primarily driven\nby chicken meat, bird\u2019s eye chilli, and rice.<\/p>\n
On an annual basis, inflation in the volatile food group in August\nreached 4.06 per cent, up from 2.52 per cent in the previous month.<\/p>\n
In addition to food, Faisal accounted for the impact of price\nadjustments to several of Pertamina\u2019s non-subsidised fuels (BBM) that\ntook effect at the beginning of September. PT Pertamina Patra Niaga\nraised the prices of Pertamax Turbo, Dexlite, and Pertamina Dex starting\n1 September 2026.<\/p>\n
However, Faisal expects the influence of these adjustments on\nSeptember inflation to be relatively small, as the types of fuel that\nincreased in price have a more limited user base.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut in terms of the impact on inflation, it still exists, even if it\nis relatively small,\u201d he stated.<\/p>\n
With an inflation projection of 0.1\u20130.2 per cent, Faisal believes\nthat price pressures in September remain below seasonal periods that\ntend to record higher inflation, namely Eid al-Fitr and the Christmas\nand New Year period.<\/p>\n
He noted that inflation in August, September, and October has\nhistorically tended to be relatively low, although inflation\ndevelopments in these months this year are considered higher compared to\npatterns in previous years.<\/p>\n
To keep inflation under control, Faisal believes the government needs\nto prioritise addressing disruptions in food production while ensuring\nthat supply chains run smoothly.<\/p>\n
\u201cMoving forward, what needs to be addressed is the issue of food\ninflation due to production disruptions and weather factors,\u201d he\nsaid.<\/p>\n
He suggested that government focus should be directed towards\npreventing production and supply chain disruptions so that supply\npressures do not evolve into broader price increases.<\/p>\n
From a policy perspective, Bank Indonesia predicts that volatile food\ninflation will remain controlled with the support of synergy between the\ncentral and regional governments through the Central and Regional\nInflation Control Team (TPIP-TPID) and the Food Inflation Control and\nWelfare Movement (GPIPS).<\/p>\n
The 2026 inflation target set by the government is 2.5 per cent with\na one per cent deviation. With the annual inflation in August at 3.19\nper cent, Indonesia\u2019s inflation remains within the target range.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/core-estimates-september-inflation-at-0-1-0-2-per-cent-1788354670", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }