JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The decline in the Consumer Confidence Index\n(IKK) for two consecutive months in February and March 2026 is seen as\nan early warning signal that the public is beginning to restrain their\nspending pace.<\/p>\n
Based on a Bank Indonesia (BI) survey, the IKK continued to fall from\na level of 127 in January to 125.1 in February. In March, the index\nexperienced a deeper decline to 122.9.<\/p>\n
Bank Permata\u2019s Chief Economist Josua Pardede stated that although it\nhas contracted, the IKK remains well above the 100 threshold, indicating\nthat consumers are still in an optimistic zone.<\/p>\n
This should not be immediately interpreted as the public\u2019s confidence\nin the economy suddenly disappearing. Rather, it is an early warning\nsignal that society is starting to be more cautious in making\nconsumption decisions.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn other words, consumption has not slowed sharply yet, but\nconfidence in continuing aggressive spending is beginning to soften,\u201d he\ntold Kompas.com on Friday (10\/4\/2026).<\/p>\n
In February, the decline was more driven by weakening future\nexpectations, while the current conditions remained relatively strong.\nThis is evident from the increase in the Current Economic Condition\nIndex (IKE) to 115.9 and the decline in the Consumer Expectations Index\n(IEK) to 138.8.<\/p>\n
Then in March, that doubt widened to not only weakening future hopes\nbut also current consumption decisions, particularly those related to\nspending on durable goods and perceptions of job availability.<\/p>\n
This is reflected in the IKE and IEK both declining to 115.4 and\n130.4. The decline in IKE was caused by falls in the Durable Goods\nPurchase Index and the Job Availability Index, while the decline in IEK\nwas due to drops in the Income Expectations Index, Job Availability\nExpectations Index, and Business Activity Expectations Index.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo, the decline over the last two months indicates a shift in\nbehaviour from optimistic to more cautious. It has not yet reached the\nphase of sharp consumption tightening, but it has entered the phase of\nmore careful calculation,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
From a global perspective, rising uncertainty due to geopolitical\nconflicts, rising energy prices, financial market volatility, and\nlimited room for monetary policy easing are also pressuring household\nperceptions.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/consumer-confidence-index-falls-for-two-consecutive-months-early-warning-signal-as-public-begins-to-curb-1775836249", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }