Consensus builds in OPEC on steady output; no deal yet on next leader<\/p>\n
Maher Chmaytelli
\nAgence France-Presse
\nVienna<\/p>\n
A consensus is building within OPEC to maintain its oil
\nproduction ceiling until at least early next year at Thursday's
\nmeeting, but the 11-nation cartel remains divided over who will
\nbe its next secretary general.<\/p>\n
The oil ministers of Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Libya, the
\nUnited Arab Emirates (UAE) and Venezuela have said they prefer
\nOrganization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to keep its
\n24.5 million barrels per day (bpd) ceiling unchanged for now, and
\nOPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia seems satisfied with the status quo.<\/p>\n
These countries said OPEC should hold another meeting between
\nJanuary and March next year to review the market situation.<\/p>\n
Oil prices since June have stayed close to the upper limit of
\nthe 22-28 dollar per barrel price band targeted by OPEC, and
\noften hovered above it, with demand now driven by the winter
\nseason in the northern hemisphere and high economic growth in the
\nUnited States and China.<\/p>\n
\"I don't think there is a need for a change in quotas... we
\nprobably have to meet again before March,\" Libyan Oil Minister
\nAbdulhafid Zlitni said.<\/p>\n
Algeria has said OPEC, which controls about one third of the
\nworld's crude oil supply, should contemplate lower production
\nonly in the second quarter, as seasonal demand decreases.<\/p>\n
Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil expected demand in the
\nsecond quarter to be lower by 1.5 million bpd from its current
\nlevel, and non-OPEC crude oil production to increase by more than
\none million bpd.<\/p>\n
But he stopped short from predicting an OPEC cut in production
\nin the second quarter. \"I don't know, we should see how much we
\nare producing first,\" he told reporters here.<\/p>\n
A decision to maintain output would run against the wishes of
\nthe International Energy Agency (IEA), which represents consumer
\nnations. This body has been calling regularly for an increase in
\nsupply.<\/p>\n
But OPEC officials have argued that high prices have been
\ncaused by political worries, mainly linked to Iraq, and not to a
\nlack in supply.<\/p>\n
On the administrative front, the 11-nation cartel has yet to
\nagree on a name to fill the top administrative job at the
\norganization's headquarters in the Austrian capital.<\/p>\n
Iran, Kuwait and Venezuela have fielded candidates,
\nrespectively Hadi Nejad Hosseinian; Adnan Shihab-Eldin, who is
\nOPEC's director of research; and Alvaro Silva Calderon, the
\nincumbent secretary general.<\/p>\n
Iran has said it would stand by its candidate and not give
\nsupport for any other country's aspirant.<\/p>\n
\"If they (the other members) don't vote for Iran's
\ncandidate... there is no reason Iran should vote for others,\" Oil
\nMinister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh has said.<\/p>\n
Industry sources said if the cartel fails to reach a
\nconsensus, it could resort to alphabetical order, and in this
\ncase Iran would emerge as winner.<\/p>\n
Another way out would be to ask the oil minister of the
\ncountry which will take over the presidency in 2004, Indonesia,
\nto serve as the acting secretary general until an agreement is
\nreached.<\/p>\n
Iran provided OPEC's first secretary general in 1961, and
\nKuwait the third, in 1965.<\/p>\n
Both countries are arguing that it is time for them to have
\nthis position again, and industry sources say Kuwait has the
\nbacking of fellow Gulf Arab monarchies Qatar, UAE and Saudi
\nArabia.<\/p>\n
Analysts say that Venezuela's candidacy responds to a quest
\nfor international prestige on the oil scene by President Hugo
\nChavez, who had been challenged earlier this year by the oil
\nworkers of his own country.<\/p>\n
The position of secretary general does not interfere in
\nprinciple with policy making which remains in the hands of the
\nministers, but can influence the efficiency of the cartel.<\/p>\n
\"Having a good secretary general, someone who has good
\nrelations with all members, enables the organisation to react
\nquickly to events,\" said Ruba Husari, an expert with the New
\nYork-based Energy Intelligence Group.<\/p>",
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