The surge in energy commodity prices due to the war between Iran and\nIsrael and the United States (US) has left the world anxious. However,\nfor some, this price increase is a blessing.<\/p>\n
The escalation of geopolitical conflict between the US-Israel and\nIran, culminating in security disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, has\nsignificant implications for the global supply chain.<\/p>\n
The Strait of Hormuz\u2019s position as a crucial logistics route\naccommodating the distribution of world energy and major commodities\nmeans that any disruption in the area directly triggers a supply\nshock.<\/p>\n
This uncertainty creates a positive catalyst in the form of a surge\nin global commodity prices.<\/p>\n
The shift in the supply curve due to logistical barriers pushes up\nenergy prices, precious metals, and sea freight rates to premium levels.\nIn the domestic capital market, this situation provides substantial\nwindfall profits for issuers operating in related sectors.<\/p>\n
The increased operational margins recorded by several issuers on the\nIndonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) directly positively impact the valuation\nof companies controlled by several prominent conglomerates and Ultimate\nBeneficial Owners (UBO) in Indonesia. This crisis dynamic positions them\nas beneficiaries of the surge in global benchmark prices.<\/p>\n
According to Refinitiv, after a month of the Iran vs Israel-US war\nerupting, the commodity prices that surged the most were oil prices,\nfollowed by coal.<\/p>\n
The oil price surge is even higher than during the Russia-Ukraine\nWar.<\/p>\n
This commodity price surge also benefits companies and their owners.\nWith surging prices, company revenues can increase.<\/p>\n
Beyond commodities, the Iran vs Israel-US war also brings benefits to\nfertiliser commodities and companies in the shipping sector. Urea\nfertiliser prices have even skyrocketed by more than 10% since the\nwar.<\/p>\n
Drawing from commodity price movements and war impacts, several\nissuers stand to benefit, including the following:<\/p>\n
Sectoral Analysis and Commodity Price Movements<\/p>\n
Supply disruptions due to conflict escalation bring specific\nfundamental implications for each asset class. Below is a detailed\nbreakdown of the profit mechanisms obtained by each sector along with\nthe current benchmark commodity prices.<\/p>\n
Below is a holistic mapping of sectors benefiting from global supply\nchain disruptions due to the Middle East conflict, referring to updates\non issuer data and their controlling structures.<\/p>\n
Oil and Gas Sector (Migas)<\/p>\n
Current Benchmark Price: Brent crude oil price has surged to US$119\nper barrel, while WTI moves in the highest range of US$112.<\/p>\n
This maritime route is vital as it accommodates about 20% of the\nworld\u2019s oil supply. Disruptions to this route create an instant global\nsupply deficit.<\/p>\n
Upstream oil and gas producers such as MEDC, controlled by the\nPanigoro family, and ENRG under the Bakrie Group, become direct\nbeneficiaries.<\/p>\n
This benchmark price surge directly raises the company\u2019s Average\nSelling Price (ASP), widening profit margins without needing significant\nproduction volume increases.<\/p>\n
ELSA also receives positive derivative impacts if high oil prices\nencourage upstream contractors to increase capital expenditure budgets\n(capex) for exploration activities.<\/p>\n
Coal Sector<\/p>\n
Current Benchmark Price: Newcastle reference coal (ICE) moves\nmoderately in the range of US$130-140 per tonne.<\/p>\n
The coal sector\u2019s correlation to the Middle East conflict operates\nthrough an energy substitution mechanism. When the crisis pushes oil\nprices beyond industrial economic limits, manufacturing countries shift\nenergy needs to coal.<\/p>\n
With oil prices correcting back, the urgency of this substitution\ngradually eases, but this uncertainty remains a top priority as\nsubstitution is a key part of countries\u2019 energy resilience.<\/p>\n
This increased substitution demand maintains sales volumes and\nmargins for coal issuers. Alamtri Resources Indonesia (ADRO) has a\nstrong cost structure efficiency (cash cost).<\/p>\n
This condition allows the company to generate maximum free cash flow\namid high substitute energy commodity prices and it is not subject to\nthe new DMO regulations.<\/p>\n
Aluminium Sector<\/p>\n
Current Benchmark Price: London Metal Exchange (LME) reference\naluminium stabilises in the range of US$3,200-3,300 per tonne.<\/p>\n
The Gulf region is the world\u2019s aluminium smelting base due to access\nto cheap natural gas supplies. Fears of maritime blockades previously\ntriggered buying actions that pushed up aluminium prices due to\nexpectations of supply shortages.<\/p>\n
The peace declaration ensures smelter operations and logistics in the\nMiddle East run without hindrance. This supply normalisation eliminates\nthe scarcity premium on global aluminium prices.<\/p>\n
The impact on ADMR (Alamtri Minerals Indonesia) is neutral, given\nthat investor focus on this issuer remains on long-term execution of the\nsmelter facility resolution in North Kalimantan, not merely short-term\ncommodity price fluctuations.<\/p>\n
Gold Sector (Precious Metals)<\/p>\n
Current Benchmark Price: Spot gold price (XAU\/USD) consolidates in\nthe range of US$4,400-4,600 per troy ounce.<\/p>\n
In the macroeconomic landscape, gold is an absolute safe haven or\nhedging instrument when geopolitical uncertainty peaks. This escalation\nscenario automatically reduces market risk appetite from riskier assets\nto safer ones.<\/p>\n
Rising global risks trigger massive liquidity flows from financial\ninstitutions out of risky assets towards the precious metals market.\nThis basic gold price increase directly boosts asset valuations and\nprofitability projections for gold mining issuers.<\/p>\n
EMAS, affiliated with Garibaldi Thohir, and ARCI, owned by Peter\nSon<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/conglomerate-stocks-poised-to-benefit-from-the-iran-war-1774785080", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }