Commentary: Why is UMNO calling for an \u2018immediate\u2019 GE? Look at the\nmaths<\/p>\n
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim can buy time if he can resist\nhis deputy\u2019s push for an immediate general election. But he still needs\na solution, says Asian studies professor James Chin.<\/p>\n
HOBART, Australia: Last weekend\u2019s general assembly was not a routine\nparty gathering of the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO). It\nwas a declaration of intent.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe time has come for GE16 to be held immediately,\u201d said Ahmad Zahid\nHamidi, UMNO president and deputy prime minister to Mr Anwar Ibrahim.\nMalaysia\u2019s next general election (GE16) would be the moment to \u201creclaim\nthe mandate to lead\u201d.<\/p>\n
Two state polls on the peninsula have likely boosted Mr Zahid\u2019s\nconfidence. UMNO-led coalition Barisan Nasional (BN) swept 48 of 56\nseats in Johor in July and 18 of 36 seats in Negeri Sembilan in\nAugust.<\/p>\n
But are two state wins enough for UMNO to want that national contest\nbrought forward?<\/p>\n
BETTING ON MALAY CONSOLIDATION<\/p>\n
UMNO is seeing another lesson here: That a collaboration with Parti\nIslam Se-Malaysia (PAS), whether formal or tacit, has clear potential as\nan electoral machine in GE16. Together, BN and PAS formed a\nsupermajority with 25 seats in Negeri Sembilan.<\/p>\n
At the general assembly, Mr Zahid called for a \u201cgrand collaboration\u201d.\nPAS leaders were invited to the meeting. Pakatan Harapan (PH) leaders\nwere not.<\/p>\n
The packaging was familiar. For me, the grand collaboration is a\nrebrand of the old Muafakat Nasional alliance between UMNO and PAS.<\/p>\n
Even though Mr Zahid ruled out the possibility of a Muafakat 2.0 just\nmonths ago, he spoke last weekend of tafahum siyasi \u2013 a political\nunderstanding that would not merge parties or erase identities but stop\nMalays from clashing with one another.<\/p>\n
The substance is the same: Malay-Muslim consolidation first, everyone\nelse later. The difference this time is that non-Malay parties appear to\nbe welcome to join the grand collaboration, with UMNO in charge.<\/p>\n
PAS likely sees partnership with BN as its best shot to be part of\nthe federal government and is willing pay the price of playing junior\npartner to UMNO.<\/p>\n
HOW THE MATHS WORKS OUT<\/p>\n
UMNO has not behaved like a partner anxious to preserve a coalition.\nThe party has been openly undermining the unity government by\ncooperating with PAS to avoid splitting the vote in Johor and Negeri\nSembilan, while still sitting in federal Cabinet.<\/p>\n
At UMNO\u2019s meeting, it openly dared Anwar to sack the party from\ngovernment and call for early general elections. It is the behaviour of\na party preparing the ground to take over the next government.<\/p>\n
The arithmetic is brutal and simple. Looking at the combined\nperformance of PAS and BN from the 2022 general election, they could\neasily win about 100 parliamentary seats in GE16.<\/p>\n
That is short of the 112 simple majority needed to take Putrajaya on\ntheir own, but GE15 was widely recognised as a poor showing for BN. If\nthe political winds have indeed changed and favour a \u201cMalay Tsunami\u201d, a\nunited UMNO-PAS ticket could even win about 120 seats outright.<\/p>\n
UMNO is also hoping to recapture some lost Malay ground, after\nspending nearly a full term governing alongside the Democratic Action\nParty (DAP), which is a component party of Mr Anwar\u2019s PH coalition.\nLarge parts of the Malay electorate still do not trust the DAP in\nfederal government.<\/p>\n
Mr Anwar, at least in public, insists UMNO remains part of the unity\ngovernment under him. That posture looks less like strategy than\npolitical paralysis.<\/p>\n
A deputy prime minister can call for immediate polls and dare the\nprime minister to kick his party out, and the latter\u2019s reply is that the\ngovernment is still intact. The best explanation for Mr Anwar\u2019s\nbehaviour is that he believes even if re-elected, he still needs and can\nget Mr Zahid to support him.<\/p>\n
SHORING UP EAST MALAYSIA SUPPORT<\/p>\n
Even if the calculus adds up on the peninsula, UMNO still has a\nproblem in East Malaysia.<\/p>\n
The dominant coalitions \u2013 Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) in Sarawak and\nGabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) in Sabah \u2013 do not want a Putrajaya with PAS\nas a central partner. They are not comfortable with PAS\u2019s religious\nambitions and rhetoric.<\/p>\n
At the party\u2019s annual congress in Kelantan on Sep 5, PAS president\nAbdul Hadi Awang said that non-Muslims should be confined to Cabinet\nportfolios dealing with implementation rather than policy formulation,\nwhich must be led by a Muslim minister. That is not the language of a\ncoalition partner East Malaysia can accept.<\/p>\n
It gives Mr Anwar an opportunity to secure backing from Sabah and\nSarawak. But that means he has to deliver on the commitments under\nMalaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63).<\/p>\n
Among the key demands are a larger share of oil and gas revenue and\n35 per cent of seats in Parliament. Sabah also wants the issue of its\nentitlement to 40 per cent of federal revenue derived from the state\nthat has been unfulfilled for nearly five decades.<\/p>\n
Those are not small asks. They are the price of a political insurance\npolicy.<\/p>\n
On Saturday (Sep 12), after chairing a meeting on MA63\nimplementation, Mr Anwar said that the federal government has consented\nto increasing parliamentary representation from Sabah and Sarawak. He\nalso said that Sarawak may get a federal revenue sharing arrangement in\nthe same spirit as the one struck with Sabah.<\/p>\n
Whether there can be any meaningful progress on these issues before\nGE16 remains to be seen, but it sends a clear signal to East Malaysian\nvoters.<\/p>\n
BUYING TIME<\/p>\n
Faced with all these pressures, the best course of action for Mr\nAnwar might be to delay GE16 for as long as he can. The current\nparliament\u2019s five-year mandate ends in December 2027, making the\nelection constitutionally due by February 2028.<\/p>\n
Even then, courting East Malaysia can only carry Mr Anwar so far. It\ncannot substitute for Malay votes. If indeed the UMNO-PAS pact lasts\nuntil GE16 and pays off with an outright majority, they would not even\nneed the East Malaysian seats to form government.<\/p>\n
Mr Anwar can buy some time by resisting<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/commentary-why-is-umno-calling-for-an-immediate-ge-look-at-the-maths-1789599033", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }