Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Coal prices were unchanged amid rising oil\nprices and concerns over distribution and supply disruptions.<\/p>\n
According to Refinitiv, the price of coal in trading on Tuesday\n(10\/8\/2026) closed at US$134 per ton, unmoved. Coal prices had\npreviously strengthened, supported by oil and tightening supply.<\/p>\n
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures closed up 1.3% at\nUS$83.20 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent crude, the international\nbenchmark, rose about 1.4% to US$88.91 per barrel. Oil and coal are\nsubstitute commodities, so their prices influence one another.<\/p>\n
Turkey has begun blocking a number of commercial vessels from\nentering the Black Sea en route to the Russian port of Novorossiysk.\nThis move exacerbates disruptions on two commodity trade routes already\nshaken by a series of attacks. Turkey\u2019s Directorate General of Coastal\nSafety has informed several ships that transit permits for voyages to\nNovorossiysk have not been issued, while permit applications through the\nDardanelles Strait are taking longer. Vessels heading to Ukrainian ports\nare also affected, while traffic to Bulgarian and Turkish ports\ncontinues as normal.<\/p>\n
This transit tightening compounds a sharp decline in Russian coal\nexports through southern ports. Coal export shipments by rail to ports\nreached 16.50 million tonnes in July, up 13.01% year-on-year but down\n1.58% compared to June, according to data from Metals & Mining\nIntelligence (MMI). However, shipments to southern ports plummeted\n31.18% month-on-month to 1.56 million tonnes. Conversely, the new\nnorthern port of Lavna, which has been included in the calculations,\nreceived 356,000 tonnes, surging more than 161% year-on-year and 547%\ncompared to June. The increase was partly driven by disruptions in the\nsouthern region. Ports in the Baltic region handled 2.99 million tonnes,\nor about 18% of the total shipment, a volume down 5.83% month-on-month\nbut still up 10.67% year-on-year.<\/p>\n
MMI estimates the decline in shipments through southern ports will\ncontinue into August. Rising insurance costs and an increasing number of\ncompanies refusing shipping bookings through the Black Sea are diverting\ncargo flows to other routes. Additionally, Turkey\u2019s permit restrictions\nare expected to slow the transit process and further delay vessel\nmovements. A partial recovery is expected at Baltic ports and the\nnorthern route via Murmansk and Lavna, but these routes cannot fully\nreplace the southern terminals. Moreover, longer sea voyage times will\npressure shipping profit margins.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s coal imports surged to their highest level this year in July,\nbut the increase is considered deceptive as it was largely driven by\nshort-term factors unlikely to persist. Official data shows China\u2019s coal\nimports reached 43.73 million tonnes in July, up 23% compared to the\nsame period last year. The figure also increased from 42.78 million\ntonnes in June and was almost a third higher than this year\u2019s low of\n33.1 million tonnes in April. The import spike occurred after China\ntightened mine safety inspections following an accident at a mine in\nShanxi province on 22 May that killed 82 people. Mine safety inspections\ntypically suppress production in China, the world\u2019s largest coal\nproducer. When domestic supply decreases, China increases imports to\ncover the shortfall.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s domestic coal production in June fell 9.7% year-on-year to\n380.88 million tonnes. Average daily production reached only 12.7\nmillion tonnes, the lowest since July 2025. Production likely remained\nunder pressure in July, with official data expected to be released next\nweek. However, analysts in China expect August production to return to\nnear 2025 levels. This means China\u2019s need for imported coal could start\nto decline from August. China sources coal from two main channels:\nseaborne imports and overland imports from neighbouring countries,\nmainly Mongolia and partly from Russia. Seaborne imports account for\nabout 75% of China\u2019s total coal imports, but this share has been\ndeclining in recent years as supplies from Mongolia increase,\nparticularly metallurgical coal for the steel industry.<\/p>\n
Analysts at DBX Commodities estimate China\u2019s seaborne coal imports in\nAugust will reach 31.23 million tonnes, down from 33.91 million tonnes\nin July. If realised, this would be the first decline in four months.\nThe figure may still change as additional cargo data comes in, but the\ninitial trend suggests August imports will be below July, indicating\nChina\u2019s import needs are starting to ease as mine safety inspections\nconclude. The outlook for China\u2019s coal imports and seaborne coal prices\nalso depends heavily on electricity demand. Official data shows thermal\npower generation in China rose 2.9% in the first half of 2026 compared\nto the same period the previous year. China\u2019s thermal power plants\nmostly use coal, with a small portion using natural gas. Despite the\nincrease in output, the share of thermal power in total electricity\nproduction continues to decline as China accelerates the development of\nwind and solar power plants. This signals that the surge in China\u2019s coal\nimports in July may not be a new trend. If domestic production returns\nto normal and renewable energy continues to grow, China\u2019s need for\nimported coal could weaken further.<\/p>\n
India is also reducing its reliance on coal-fired power\ngeneration.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/coal-prices-stagnate-as-turkeys-transit-blockade-and-shifting-asian-demand-loom-1786499489", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }