Coal prices remained unmoved. According to Refinitiv, coal prices\nclosed at US$139.3 per tonne on Monday (6\/4\/2026), remaining\nstagnant.<\/p>\n
The stagnation in coal prices is due to a tug-of-war of factors. On\none hand, many countries are once again hunting for coal due to the\nsurge in oil prices. However, demand in several countries is\nweakening.<\/p>\n
Vietnam has proposed increasing coal production capacity by up to 15%\nto maintain energy supplies amid rising global uncertainties.<\/p>\n
Vietnam\u2019s Ministry of Agriculture and Environment has proposed\nallowing domestic coal producers to increase production by a maximum of\n15% above licensed capacity.<\/p>\n
This proposal arises amid escalating geopolitical tensions,\nparticularly in the Middle East, which continue to disrupt the global\nenergy market. Key transport routes such as the Strait of Hormuz face\npotential risks, triggering concerns over supply disruptions.<\/p>\n
Domestically, electricity demand continues to rise, while efforts to\nsecure imported fuel still face uncertainties due to market volatility,\nlogistical constraints, price pressures, and supply risks.<\/p>\n
The ministry also proposes adjusting mineral mining permits to allow\nan increase in coal production capacity by a maximum of 15% from\nexisting licensed capacity.<\/p>\n
The ministry states that domestic coal remains a crucial base energy\nsource, essential for maintaining the stability of the electricity\nsystem, supporting industrial production, and ensuring national energy\nresilience.<\/p>\n
If approved, this policy is expected to help meet coal needs for\npower plants and major industries, while strengthening energy\nresilience.<\/p>\n
Additionally, this policy would enable more optimal utilisation of\nexisting mine capacities\u2014including equipment, technology, workforce, and\ninfrastructure\u2014thus improving efficiency and accelerating the conversion\nof capacity into actual production.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s Market Cooling<\/p>\n
China\u2019s coal market is once again showing unusual dynamics. Amid weak\nseasonal demand, declining stocks at ports are acting as a buffer to\nprevent prices from falling further.<\/p>\n
The latest data shows that thermal coal stocks at northern China\u2019s\nports have continued to decline in recent times. This decline is not\ndriven by a surge in demand, but by supply-side disruptions.<\/p>\n
One main factor is the disruption in distribution, including\nmaintenance on major rail lines transporting coal from mines to ports.\nThis situation has reduced the supply entering the ports.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, coal demand is in a weak phase. China is currently\nin a transitional period, not the peak electricity consumption season\nlike summer or winter.<\/p>\n
As a result, purchases by power plants tend to be limited, while\ntrading activities are also relatively quiet.<\/p>\n
However, interestingly, coal prices are not experiencing a sharp\ndecline. The drop in port stocks serves as a \u201cbuffer\u201d that holds back\ndownward price pressure.<\/p>\n
This means that although demand fundamentals are weak, supply\nlimitations keep prices stable.<\/p>\n
The current market conditions reflect a tug-of-war between supply and\ndemand. Demand is weakening due to seasonal factors, while supply to\nports is disrupted by logistical issues.<\/p>\n
This combination results in a somewhat stagnant market. Prices lack a\ncatalyst for significant increases but are not weak enough for sharp\ndeclines.<\/p>\n
A similar phenomenon is seen in China\u2019s coking coal market. The\nmarket shows mixed signals between supply disruptions and weak\ndemand.<\/p>\n
On one side, there is tightening supply in several regions due to\nmine inspections, accidents, and temporary operational halts.<\/p>\n
However, on the other side, demand from downstream industries such as\nsteel mills and coke producers is weakening. This reflects steel sector\nactivities that have not fully recovered.<\/p>\n
Additionally, market sentiment is pressured by weakening futures\nprices, making market participants tend to hold back on purchases.<\/p>\n
In theory, supply disruptions should push prices up. But in the\ncurrent conditions, weak demand is more dominant.<\/p>\n
As a result, coking coal prices are unable to strengthen\nsignificantly and tend to move stagnantly, even with a weakening\nbias.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/coal-prices-dead-global-market-forces-divided-1775616742", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }