China test warning to regional security<\/p>\n
By Harvey Stockwin<\/p>\n
HONG KONG (JP): China appears to have successfully tested a
\nnew intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) which is mobile,
\nand uses solid rather than liquid fuel as a propellant. The new
\nICBM may therefore indicate that China has taken a major stride
\ntowards the superpower status which the Beijing government still
\nofficially denies that it is seeking.<\/p>\n
News of the successful test appeared confirmed Thursday by a
\ncombination of media and official Japanese sources. Initially,
\nnews of the test broke in stories printed by the right-wing
\nJapanese daily newspaper Sankei Shimbun and by the Japanese news
\nagency Jiji Press.<\/p>\n
From these reports it merged that \"Dong Feng (East Wind) 31\"
\nICBM had been fired from a mobile launcher and was estimated to
\nhave a range of 8,000 kilometers (4960 miles). Whereas presently
\ndeployed Chinese ICBMs require liquid fuel, the DF-31 is said to
\nbe using a more sophisticated solid fuel.<\/p>\n
But whereas the Sankei Shimbun said that the DF-31 test was
\ncarried out on Monday, the Jiji report quoted Western diplomats
\nas saying that the missile was tested sometime last week.<\/p>\n
Asked about these reports the Japanese government's chief
\nspokesman, Chief Cabinet Secretary Kozo Igarashi, said that the
\nJapanese government had \"tentatively confirmed\" that the \"Chinese
\ntest took place at the end of May.\"<\/p>\n
Precisely why the Japanese are unable to be more assertive
\nregarding the test is not yet clear.<\/p>\n
Earlier, on May 25 Japan's top soldier Gen. Tetsuya Nishimoto,
\nchief of Japan's Joint Staff Council, told a press conference
\nthat he had information that China was about to test-fire a
\nballistic missile.<\/p>\n
It must be assumed that, if the DF-31 was tested at full
\nrange, the missile was fired out into the Pacific Ocean, since
\nany other direction would have been too hazardous and the test
\ncould not have taken place within China's own landmass.<\/p>\n
But if it was a Pacific test, it is extremely curious that so
\nfar the United States, with its monitoring capability, has had
\nnothing to say about it.<\/p>\n
The fact that the first news of this test originated from
\nJapan is significant, coming as it does shortly after Japan, for
\nthe first time, linked its grant aid for China to Beijing's
\nfailure to halt its underground nuclear explosions. When China
\ncarried out its latest nuclear test, within days of the
\nindefinite extension of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty,
\nJapan reacted more strongly than usual, and announced that
\nChina's grant aid would be cut as a sign of Tokyo's displeasure.<\/p>\n
When the Japanese government did not immediately announce the
\nexact amount of the cut, it was assumed that Tokyo was waiting to
\nsee if China conducted any more tests.<\/p>\n
It was speculated, at the time of the Chinese nuclear test,
\nthat the low yield of the explosion meant that China was
\nexperimenting with miniaturization of nuclear warheads for
\nmissiles. The need for such miniaturization is now made clear: a
\nmobile missile needs as small a nuclear warhead as possible.<\/p>\n
Needless to say, if the emerging facts about the DF-31 are
\nconfirmed, the mobile missile could reach all parts of
\nIndonesia's territory. It could also reach all parts of Russia,
\nand most of Europe, depending where it was deployed. It would
\nalso have the capability of reaching the west coast of the United
\nStates.<\/p>\n
At present, according to publications of the International
\nInstitute for Strategic Studies in London, China has 14 liquid
\nfuel ICBMs currently deployed on land in fixed silos. It has four
\nDong Feng 5 (DF-5) ICBMs with a range of 15,000 kilometers,
\ncapable of reaching the whole of the United States. It has ten
\nDF-4 missiles with a range of 7,000 km.<\/p>\n
Evidently the DF-5 ICBM has never been test-fired.<\/p>\n
Additionally, China's one nuclear submarine has 12 submarine-
\nlaunched ballistic missiles, with a modest range of between 2,200
\nand 3,000 km.<\/p>\n
It goes without saying that their arsenal of ICBMs is small
\ncompared with the nuclear capabilities of the United States and
\nRussia, and is less than that of France or the United Kingdom.<\/p>\n
Still, the DF-31, together with the recent nuclear test,
\nunderlines China's remorseless march towards superpower status.<\/p>\n
If the facts so far reported about the DF-31 are confirmed
\nthen it will represent a considerable advance in China's ability
\nto wage nuclear warfare, and, as such, will inevitably increase
\ngrowing regional concerns about Beijing's ultimate military-
\npolitical intentions.<\/p>",
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