China, India unlikely to replace US role in Middle East even as Iran\nwar reshapes dynamics: Analysts<\/p>\n
The influence of rising powers in the Middle East is unlikely to take\nthe form of the military presence traditionally associated with the\nUnited States, say analysts at the Middle East Institute\u2019s annual\nconference.<\/p>\n
SHENZHEN: Neither China nor India is likely to replace the United\nStates\u2019 longstanding role in the Middle East even as the Iran war\nreshapes regional dynamics, analysts said on Tuesday (Jun 23).<\/p>\n
Instead, the Middle East is set for a more complex balance of power,\nthey added.<\/p>\n
While rising powers are expected to remain important players, the\nexperts said their influence is likely to take different forms,\nincluding through diplomacy and economic partnerships, rather than the\nmilitary presence traditionally associated with Washington.<\/p>\n
\u201cAny expectation of new external actors playing similar roles to what\n\u2026 American or European powers have played in the past should not be\nexpected,\u201d said Kabir Taneja, executive director of Observer Research\nFoundation (ORF) Middle East, a Dubai-based policy think tank.<\/p>\n
He was speaking during a panel discussion at the Middle East\nInstitute\u2019s (MEI) annual conference. MEI is an autonomous research\ninstitute within the National University of Singapore.<\/p>\n
This year\u2019s conference was themed \u201cAfter the Iran War: The Global\nGeopolitical and Economic Fallout\u201d.<\/p>\n
In the panel titled \u201cExternal Powers and the New Middle East\nReality\u201d, experts examined what the conflict means for the influence of\nmajor powers, including the US, China and India.<\/p>\n
TESTING CHINESE ENGAGEMENT<\/p>\n
Speaking during the panel, Jonathan Fulton, an associate professor at\nZayed University, said the conflict has tested China\u2019s engagement with\nthe region.<\/p>\n
\u201cChina\u2019s had an economics-focused approach to the region that works\nduring periods of stability. It doesn\u2019t necessarily work during periods\nof turbulence,\u201d said Fulton, whose research focuses on China\u2019s relations\nwith the Middle East.<\/p>\n
China has expanded its presence in the Middle East in recent years\nthrough energy, trade, investment and diplomacy, including brokering the\nrestoration of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023.<\/p>\n
The region has become increasingly important to Beijing, with the\nMiddle East supplying about half of China\u2019s crude oil imports over the\npast decade, according to the Columbia University Center on Global\nEnergy Policy, citing its analysis of Chinese customs data.<\/p>\n
Fulton said China\u2019s presence in the Middle East grew as Beijing\nrecognised instability in the region could affect its economic and\nenergy interests.<\/p>\n
Chinese engagement became more systematic after the launch of the\nBelt and Road Initiative in 2013 - Beijing\u2019s global infrastructure and\ninvestment strategy - but remains largely focused on economic and\ndevelopment cooperation, he added.<\/p>\n
Responding to a question on whether the conflict exposed the limits\nof China\u2019s role as a security actor, another panellist, China foreign\npolicy expert Yun Sun, said the issue was not whether Beijing would play\na role, but what form that role would take.<\/p>\n
The Iran war broke out on Feb 28 after the US and Israel launched\nstrikes on Tehran, triggering retaliation and regional escalation. The\nmonths-long conflict has killed thousands, mostly Iranians, and rattled\nglobal markets.<\/p>\n
China has repeatedly called for an immediate ceasefire and a return\nto diplomacy while criticising military actions that risk widening the\nconflict.<\/p>\n
\u201cChina will not conduct military intervention \u2026 (and) does not plan\nto have military deployment in the region,\u201d said Yun, who is a senior\nfellow and director of the China Programme at the Stimson Center, a\nWashington-based think tank.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut it doesn\u2019t mean that China does not seek to play a role.\u201d<\/p>\n
The US has long been a key security partner for many Middle Eastern\ncountries, but governments in the region have increasingly sought to\nbroaden their partnerships with other powers, including China and\nIndia.<\/p>\n
Yun pointed to examples such as China\u2019s mediation between Saudi\nArabia and Iran, but added that facilitating agreements is different\nfrom guaranteeing them.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat is a categorically different role \u2026 because guarantor means\nthat you have to carry the responsibility for the implementation of the\nagreement,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
Still, Yun said Beijing has shown signs that it wants to play a\nbigger role in Middle East security affairs, pointing to its support for\nPakistan\u2019s mediation efforts between the US and Iran, and a series of\ndiplomatic engagements with the region.<\/p>\n
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has held multiple high-level talks\nwith Middle Eastern counterparts since early March, including on\nregional security issues.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt has been a deliberate design pointing to a more significant\nChinese involvement in the Middle East security, (so) that is also going\nto be a new reality for the region,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
INDIA\u2019S GROWING INTEREST<\/p>\n
As for India, Taneja from ORF Middle East said the South Asian\ncountry has sought to maintain strategic autonomy in the Middle East by\nengaging different sides, such as the Gulf states, Israel and Iran.<\/p>\n
The region is India\u2019s key economic partner, supplying much of its\nenergy needs and hosting millions of Indian nationals, particularly in\nGulf countries.<\/p>\n
\u201c(India) does not look at the Middle East as one entity or a singular\nentity, it has relationships largely led by bilateral outreach to almost\nall countries in the region,\u201d he said, adding that New Delhi\u2019s approach\nis shaped by interests ranging from energy security and economic ties to\nregional strategy.<\/p>\n
He pointed to India\u2019s relationship with the United Arab Emirates as\nan example of New Delhi\u2019s growing engagement in the region, saying\neconomic ties between both sides have gained momentum in recent\nyears.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is actual buy-in \u2026there is momentum from an economic and\nbusiness point of view,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
But Taneja said these growing partnerships should not be seen as a\nsign that India is looking to take on th<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/china-india-unlikely-to-replace-us-role-in-middle-east-even-as-iran-war-reshapes-dynamics-analysts-1782211815", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }