China and the U.S.: Implications for SE Asia<\/p>\n
By Karim Raslan<\/p>\n
KUALA LUMPUR (JP): The Republican administration has taken the
\nhigh road with China. Reversing the Clinton White House's more
\naccommodating approach and egged on by aging Cold War warriors
\nsuch as Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfield, Bush has telegraphed
\nhis disregard for China's traditional concerns -- Tibet and
\nTaiwan -- by allowing Taiwanese President Chen Sui Bian to make a
\nstop over in New York and meeting with the Dalai Lama in person.<\/p>\n
With the two global giants engaged in an awkward game of
\nbrinkmanship, the implications for Southeast Asia are worrying.
\nMoreover last month's IMF bail-out of long-time NATO-ally Turkey
\nand the continued mishandling of Indonesia by the IMF and World
\nBank underlines American strategic thinking.<\/p>\n
Essentially, Washington D.C. is saying that the world's third
\nlargest democracy and therefore Southeast Asia (because the fate
\nof both are intimately intertwined) are dispensable. Of course a
\nbipolar world does offer certain advantages. Malaysia, for
\nexample can maintain its \"gadfly diplomacy\" in this environment.<\/p>\n
However, escalating tensions may force us to choose between
\nChina or the United States and that would be very painful. The
\nideal scenario for us is a situation where we can play the two
\nbehemoths off against one another.<\/p>\n
Whatever the case, the long-term trend points towards a
\ndecrease in American power as China grows to occupy what it has
\nlong considered to be its rightful place in Asia-Pacific. The
\nnations of Southeast Asia must adapt to China's mounting economic
\nand political influence: We have no choice.<\/p>\n
Certain countries -- the Philippines -- with their strong
\nAmerican relations and exposure to China's territorial claims in
\nthe South China Sea will find this development difficult to
\nmanage. On the other hand Burma -- firmly ensconced within the
\nChinese ambit -- will barely notice the rise in tension.<\/p>\n
Frankly there is nothing we can do to lower the temperature.
\nWe are merely observers in a contest that will determine
\nleadership in the Asia Pacific. Our views are of no consequence
\nin either Beijing or Washington D.C. So rather than waste time
\nbemoaning the situation we should prepare for our own survival.<\/p>\n
There are five strategies that Southeast Asia should adopt in
\nthe present environment. Firstly, the Association of Southeast
\nAsian Nations must be strengthened; secondly we have to adopt an
\nimpartial position as between the two behemoths whilst seeking to
\nbalance their influence by encouraging Japan, Europe and\/or India
\nto participate and engage in regional affairs; thirdly, we must
\nbe mindful of China's primary strategic concerns -- viz the
\nintegrity of its sovereign territory; fourthly, we have to
\nrealize that the Americans with their remarkably immature,
\nignorant and emotional political elite and irresponsible media
\nare subject to weird oscillations in foreign policy; fifthly,
\nthat our respective Chinese communities hold the key to our
\nengagement with Beijing.<\/p>\n
Firstly, ASEAN is much maligned. However the gathering contest
\nwill force us to revisit the regional institution. Now, more than
\never, there will be an even greater appreciation of ASEAN's
\npotential. We cannot squander this opportunity.<\/p>\n
Furthermore it should be remembered that trade and economics
\nare a crucial part of geo-politics. As such Singapore's bilateral
\nFree Trade Agreements do present a serious challenge to ASEAN
\nunity. Member states must remember that no one will be able to
\nnegotiate the impending diplomatic storms on their own.<\/p>\n
We must learn to act in concert especially vis-a-vis the two
\nbehemoths. Interestingly the first foreign forays for both Thai
\nPrime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra and Filipino Vice President,
\nGuinguona have been within the region (to Malaysia, in fact). We
\nhave to rebuild ASEAN and prepare ourselves for the impending
\nconfrontation over the Spratlys with China and human rights with
\nthe U.S.<\/p>\n
Secondly we have to develop a dispassionate and unemotional
\nmanner when handling the two giants because they will be erratic
\nand confrontational. It goes without saying that we cannot afford
\nto allow ourselves to be dependent on either one militarily,
\neconomically or strategically. Southeast Asia is now overly
\nreliant on the American export market. This must change. We have
\nto diversify our partners by buttressing our relations with
\nJapan, Europe and now India both politically and economically.<\/p>\n
Significantly the Japanese are now talking about amending
\nArticle 9 of their Constitution (enshrining their pacificism and
\nnon-aggression). This is to be encouraged. The Japanese must play
\na more responsible role in the region. They cannot continue
\nbehind a US shield. Similarly the Europeans -- especially the
\nSpanish, Italians, French and Germans -- must be courted
\naggressively. Their growing irritation with the Americans will
\nmake this process relatively straight-forward.<\/p>\n
Thirdly, we must never forget that China sees Taiwan and Tibet
\nas integral parts of their territory. This is not expansionism,
\nnor is it a Greater China ploy. As the economy grows and
\nprosperity increases, nationalism (replacing Marxism or Maoism)
\nhas become the source of the Communist party's legitimacy.<\/p>\n
The totemic idea of Zhongguo with its impressive cultural and
\nlinguistic heritage will become all-powerful. American moves to
\nencircle and contain China will outrage domestic public opinion
\nand Southeast Asia cannot afford to be seen as a party to
\nAmerica's attempts to block China's manifest destiny. The fall-
\nout for us will make the demonstrations after the bombing of the
\nChinese Embassy in Belgrade look like a tea party.<\/p>\n
Fourthly, Southeast Asia also has to be wary of the remarkable
\nstupidity and ignorance of the American political elite and their
\nparochial media. As public discourse in the U.S. continues to
\nplummet in terms of quality and discernment, the foreign policy
\ndebate will fall a victim of pollsters and knee-jerk, right
\nwingers from the think-tanks that have proliferated in Washington
\nD.C.<\/p>\n
Witness the lack of consistency and continuity in policy
\ntowards South Korea's \"Sunshine Policy\". The dumbing down of
\npolitics means that such weird and unpredictable oscillations
\nwill become the norm rather than the exception.<\/p>\n
Finally, each of the nations of Southeast Asia contain
\nsizable ethnic Chinese communities. We must ensure that the Hua
\nchiao (overseas Chinese) are more fully integrated into society
\nbecause they will provide a crucial conduit in terms of business,
\nculture and political insight into the workings of Beijing and
\nShanghai. At the end of the day Southeast Asia must acknowledge
\nhistory and geography.<\/p>\n
There have been centuries of interaction between the Middle
\nKingdom and the region, stretching back to the days of the Nanhai
\ntrade, Admiral Cheng Ho, the Malacca Sultanate, Annam, Siam and
\nChampa.<\/p>\n
The cultural bonds are deep and enduring, and we ignore them
\nat our peril.<\/p>\n
The writer is a Kuala Lumpur-based lawyer and columnist.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/china-and-the-us-implications-for-se-asia-1447893297", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }