Chances of Indo-Pak talks remote<\/p>\n
By Elizabeth Roche<\/p>\n
NEW DELHI (AFP): The recent flurry of statements from India
\nand Pakistan has taken the nascent peace process in Kashmir to a
\ndelicate stage, but analysts say direct talks are a remote
\npossibility.<\/p>\n
The peace process was initiated when New Delhi suspended
\ncounter-insurgency operations against Kashmiri militant groups on
\nNov. 27 for the Islamic holy month of Ramadhan.<\/p>\n
On Dec. 2, Pakistan said its troops would exercise "maximum
\nrestraint" along the Line of Control (LoC) which divides Indian-
\nand Pakistan-controlled Kashmir.<\/p>\n
Pakistan also said it was willing to enter into "meaningful
\ndialogue" with India and proposed that the All Parties Hurriyat
\nConference, the main Kashmiri separatist alliance, hold talks
\nwith Islamabad and New Delhi separately to pave the way for
\nthree-way talks.<\/p>\n
India on its part welcomed the offer of "maximum restraint"
\nbut rejected the demand for tripartite talks, although Prime
\nMinister Atal Behari Vajpayee indicated that the month-long
\ncease-fire in Kashmir could be extended.<\/p>\n
Three prominent leaders of the Hurriyat are currently in New
\nDelhi, reportedly for talks with the Indian leadership.<\/p>\n
Earlier this week, Hurriyat chairman Abdul Gani Bhat said he
\nwas ready for talks with both India and Pakistan and added that
\nthe ceasefire had generated a "propitious" atmosphere for talks
\nto solve the Kashmir issue.<\/p>\n
Analysts, however, say short term prospects for any direct
\nIndo-Pakistan dialogue are bleak.<\/p>\n
"This is posturing, especially by Pakistan under international
\npressure," said Kalim Bahadur, a professor of South Asian Studies
\nfrom New Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University.<\/p>\n
"The positions taken by the two sides, are so rigid and
\ninflexible that it is difficult to see them talking," he added.<\/p>\n
Brahma Chellaney, an analyst with the Center for Policy
\nResearch, was equally pessimistic.<\/p>\n
"I do not see any forward movement and certainly not towards
\ntalks of any kind, both sides are doing this due to international
\npressure," Chellaney said.<\/p>\n
"Peace does not work when you are under pressure
\nmilitarily ... right now I think it is the militants who are in
\ncontrol, striking targets at will."<\/p>\n
A western diplomat in New Delhi said any negotiations would be
\ncarried out in secret.<\/p>\n
"These official declarations are for public and foreign
\nconsumption. The real nitty-gritty will be sorted out behind
\nclosed doors," the diplomat said.<\/p>\n
Experts are unsure if the Hurriyat can play any meaningful
\nrole in resolving the Kashmir dispute as they are perceived to be
\npro-Pakistani.<\/p>\n
"The Hurriyat does not represent the Kashmiri people -- just
\none section of opinion," says Chellany.<\/p>\n
But Bharat Karnad, another analyst with the Center of Policy
\nResearch disagreed.<\/p>\n
"The Hurriyat says that they are ready to talk to both sides
\nso they could set the dialogue process in motion," Karnad said,
\nadding that while Pakistan could claim that the talks were
\ntripartite, New Delhi could say it was talking to the Hurriyat
\nand Islamabad separately.<\/p>\n
New Delhi is unlikely to take a decision on talks until after
\nit gauges the success of the Ramadhan ceasefire.<\/p>\n
India and Pakistan have fought two wars and a border conflict
\nover Kashmir since 1947.<\/p>\n
India accuses Pakistan of arming and training Muslim militants
\nin Kashmir. Islamabad denies the charge but extends moral and
\ndiplomatic support to the insurgency which has claimed 34,000
\nlives since 1989.<\/p>",
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