{
    "success": true,
    "data": {
        "id": 1643707,
        "msgid": "celios-comments-on-the-threat-of-bab-el-mandeb-closure-1774867913",
        "date": "2026-03-30 16:57:02",
        "title": "Celios Comments on the Threat of Bab-el-Mandeb Closure",
        "author": "",
        "source": "TEMPO_ID_BISNIS",
        "tags": "",
        "topic": "Trade",
        "summary": "Bhima Yudhistira from Celios warns that a potential closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait poses a greater risk to global trade than a Hormuz Strait shutdown, as it handles 12% of world trade and could disrupt Indonesia's 13.4% exports to Europe. Such an event might drive oil prices to US$120 per barrel, fuelling imported inflation, pressuring fertiliser supplies, and weakening the rupiah amid rising import costs. He urges the Indonesian government to lobby for safe passage of its cargo ships, reallocate budgets for energy and fertiliser subsidies potentially costing Rp 515 trillion, enhance public transport subsidies, and accelerate the energy transition to renewables.",
        "content": "<p>Executive Director of the Center of Economics and Law Studies\n(Celios), Bhima Yudhistira, assesses that the threat of closing the\nBab-el-Mandeb Strait carries a greater risk to global trade than if the\nStrait of Hormuz were closed.<\/p>\n<p>According to him, 12% of world trade passes through this route\nbecause it is the fastest path from Asia to Europe and Africa. \u201c12% of\nworld trade passes through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait because it is the\nfastest route,\u201d he stated in a written release on Monday, 30 March\n2026.<\/p>\n<p>After the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is said to be planning to close\nanother vital trade route, namely the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. This strait\nseparates the Asian continent from Africa and connects the Red Sea with\nthe Indian Ocean.<\/p>\n<p>Bhima recalls that during the 2023\u20132024 period, disruptions in the\nBab-el-Mandeb Strait once added up to 15 days to shipping times. This\nsituation made it difficult for cargo ships to obtain insurance\nprotection and caused a surge in logistics costs for import and export\nactivities.<\/p>\n<p>He views this situation as something that needs to be anticipated\nbecause as of January 2026, Indonesia\u2019s exports to Europe accounted for\n13.4% of total exports.<\/p>\n<p>Bhima also projects that global oil prices could breach US$120 per\nbarrel if the strait is truly closed. The impact would be quicker\npressure on imported inflation through food and energy channels, felt by\nthe public.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, fertiliser raw materials that also pass through this\nroute could be disrupted, ultimately pressuring agricultural producers.\nBhima assesses that this condition could also pressure the rupiah\nexchange rate due to weakening export performance at a time when import\ncosts are rising.<\/p>\n<p>Bhima suggests that the government immediately take mitigation steps.\nFirst, lobbying the Yemeni and Iranian governments so that cargo ships\ncarrying Indonesian goods are not hindered. Second, accelerating the\nreallocation of the budget for energy subsidies and fertiliser\nsubsidies.<\/p>\n<p>He estimates that additional government spending could reach Rp 515\ntrillion, assuming that every US$1 increase in oil prices per barrel\nabove the state revenue and expenditure budget (APBN) assumptions adds a\nburden of Rp 10.3 trillion in spending.<\/p>\n<p>Third, the government is deemed necessary to increase subsidies for\npublic transportation to curb fuel consumption.<\/p>\n<p>Fourth, accelerating the energy transition, especially in the\nelectricity sector through the installation of solar panels,\nmicro-hydro, and wind power. In rural areas that still rely on diesel\nfor generators, Bhima encourages switching to alternative energy\nsources.<\/p>",
        "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/celios-comments-on-the-threat-of-bab-el-mandeb-closure-1774867913",
        "image": ""
    },
    "sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
    "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}