Can a 'Perry process' defuse North Korea?<\/p>\n
Yoichi Funabashi, The Asahi Shimbun, Tokyo<\/p>\n
The time is not yet ripe for creative initiatives such as
\nCarter diplomacy and the Perry process.<\/p>\n
I recently interviewed Stanford University professor William
\nPerry, who served as former United States President Bill
\nClinton's secretary of defense.<\/p>\n
Soon after leaving as defense secretary in 1997, he was put in
\ncharge of dealing with the North Korean missile crisis as the
\nClinton administration's North Korean policy coordinator. He led
\ndifficult negotiations and advanced the "Perry process" to
\nstabilize U.S.-North Korea relations. On the wall of his office
\nhangs framed "words of appreciation" from bipartisan members of
\nCongress.<\/p>\n
Four years later, we are facing another nuclear crisis over
\nNorth Korea's secret nuclear development program using enriched
\nuranium. What is the aim of the North's nuclear program?<\/p>\n
"We can't be sure of what their intentions are," Perry said,
\n"but I think ... they are seriously pursuing a nuclear weapon
\nprogram. That is, they are seriously heading toward becoming a
\ndeclared nuclear state, which could include nuclear testing and
\nwould include the serial production of nuclear weapons." Over and
\nabove this, he added, North Korea may seek to emulate Pakistan.<\/p>\n
As far as North Korea's clandestine nuclear program is
\nconcerned, it appears Perry was also left in the dark. He said he
\nwasn't aware of such information while he was policy coordinator.
\nThe U.S. side, Perry says, always suspected North Korea was doing
\nsomething behind their back, and once went as far as carrying out
\nan inspection in the mountains (of Kumchangri), though to no
\navail.<\/p>\n
It is difficult to conceal the plutonium project because of
\nthe huge facilities required. But such is not the case with
\nenriched uranium, which doesn't require such facilities. Perry
\nalso noted, "... it is possible that in the first few years it
\nsimply was an experimentary laboratory program, and that the
\ndecision to go into production on it has happened only recently."<\/p>\n
If nothing is done to contain the situation, it could develop
\ninto a military conflict.<\/p>\n
Perry stressed that the U.S. must immediately begin serious
\ndialogue with North Korea to settle the nuclear problem. Although
\na solution may be a long time in coming, he said, North Korea
\nshould freeze its nuclear program and the U.S. should refrain
\nfrom taking military action.<\/p>\n
The administration of George W. Bush maintains the problem
\nshould be discussed in a multilateral forum, not simply bilateral
\ntalks between the U.S. and North Korea, since the issue concerns
\ninternational society as a whole.<\/p>\n
Perry, however, said the U.S. should not hold to such a
\nstance. The Bush administration is demanding that North Korea
\ngive up its nuclear development program "immediately,
\ntransparently and completely." But Perry believes that may be
\ndifficult and advocates a more realistic approach, such as asking
\nfor a North Korean promise to "freeze" nuclear development.<\/p>\n
Perry also objected to the argument within the Bush
\nadministration to abolish the Korean Peninsula Energy Development
\nOrganization (KEDO).<\/p>\n
Spawned after the 1994 U.S.-North Korea Framework Agreement,
\nKEDO is a multilateral project to help boost North Korea's energy
\nsupply that took off under the joint initiative of Japan, the
\nU.S. and South Korea. In exchange for removing a nuclear threat,
\nthe project promises to provide North Korea with light-water
\nnuclear reactors.<\/p>\n
In short, the aim of KEDO is to neutralize a nuclear threat
\nwith nuclear energy. Under the agreement, the U.S. was obliged to
\nprovide North Korea with heavy oil during the construction of the
\nreactors, but it recently cut off shipments.<\/p>\n
Perry said that was a mistake. The termination of heavy oil
\nsupply, he said, aggravated the nuclear crisis and gave North
\nKorea an excuse to resume nuclear development.<\/p>\n
It is better to keep KEDO intact as a forum to encourage U.S.-
\nNorth Korea dialogue, Perry argues. In the future, however, it
\nwould be more reasonable to convert KEDO into a supply source of
\nnon-nuclear, rather than nuclear, energy, he said.<\/p>\n
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter's visit to Pyongyang
\neventually led to the settlement of the 1994 North Korean nuclear
\ncrisis. Can a similar approach be taken again to bring the
\nsituation under control?<\/p>\n
Carter played a useful role, Perry said. But his success owed
\nto the firm stand of the U.S. government, which showed its
\nreadiness to take military action as a last resort, Perry
\ncontends. The U.S. dispatched aircraft carriers to surrounding
\nwaters and deployed Patriot missiles to South Korea. The Japanese
\nprime minister allowed the use of U.S. military bases in Japan
\nshould force have proved necessary.<\/p>\n
Carter diplomacy, Perry said, was effective because Japan, the
\nU.S. and South Korea cooperated. At that time, the U.S. refrained
\nfrom harshly threatening North Korea. Diplomacy sometimes
\nrequires "a little coercion, a little threat of military force."
\nAt the same time, Perry stressed, it also requires creativity.<\/p>\n
The U.S. government is too obsessed with preparing for an
\nIraqi attack to seriously deal with North Korea's nuclear threat.
\nIts diplomacy lacks both coercion and creativity. I ended the
\ninterview feeling vexed that the time is not yet ripe for
\ncreative initiatives such as Carter diplomacy and the Perry
\nprocess.<\/p>\n
Soon after my meeting with Perry, I was told by a Chinese
\nCommunist Party diplomatic source that he recently obtained
\n"reliable information from a North Korean source."<\/p>\n
According to the source, "If the Bush administration plans to
\nsend either Carter or Perry as a special envoy to North Korea,
\nPyongyang is willing to meet him."<\/p>",
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