Non-subsidised fuel prices (BBM) are likely to experience an increase\nor, at the very least, remain unchanged as of 1 September 2026. This\nprojection is based on the rising average price of global crude oil,\ncontrasted against the strengthening of the Rupiah against the US\nDollar. These two factors are the primary determinants in the direction\nof non-subsidised fuel price adjustments domestically.<\/p>\n
According to Refinitiv, the average price of Brent crude in August\n2026 stood at US$87.96 per barrel, a 4.74% increase compared to the July\n2026 average of US$83.97 per barrel. Meanwhile, the average price of\nWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at US$82.29 per barrel in August 2026,\nup 4.47% from the July average of US$78.76 per barrel.<\/p>\n
Global oil price movements throughout August 2026 were heavily\ninfluenced by geopolitical dynamics and supply from the Middle East.\nPrices initially rose as markets monitored the US-Israel-Iran conflict,\nwhich caused uncertainty regarding the smooth flow of oil through the\nStrait of Hormuz. This route is critical, as approximately 20% of global\noil supply passes through it.<\/p>\n
However, pressure on oil prices began to ease towards the end of\nAugust. Markets received news regarding the potential reopening of the\nStrait of Hormuz and additional oil flows exiting the region. While the\nrecovery of oil flows through the Strait is not yet fully stable, the\nincreased volume has led the market to assess supply risks as less\nsevere than previously feared.<\/p>\n
Additionally, oil prices faced pressure from statements by Federal\nReserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who suggested the possibility of interest\nrate hikes later this year to curb inflation. High interest rate signals\ntypically cause market concern regarding energy demand prospects, as\nexpensive borrowing costs can stifle economic activity.<\/p>\n
Despite these factors, geopolitical risks remain. Attacks on Russian\noil refineries in Ukraine continue to be a market concern due to the\npotential disruption of global petroleum product supplies. Consequently,\noil prices moved in two directions in August: rising on average due to\ngeopolitical risks, but trending downwards at month-end due to hopes for\nthe Strait of Hormuz reopening and tighter US monetary policy\nsignals.<\/p>\n
Simultaneously, the Rupiah strengthened against the US Dollar\nthroughout August 2026. Data from Refinitiv shows the Rupiah\nstrengthened by 1.32% from its late July position of Rp17,990\/US$ to\nRp17,752\/US$ during intraday trading on Monday (30\/8\/2026). On a monthly\naverage basis, the Rupiah also showed strength, averaging\nRp17,810.33\/US,\u2006a<\/em>0.98<\/span>.<\/p>\n Regarding the September 2026 fuel prices, the government determines\nprices based on a specific formula. The two main variables are the\naverage global oil price and the Rupiah exchange rate, given Indonesia\u2019s\nhigh reliance on oil imports. According to the Decree of the Minister of\nEnergy and Mineral Resources Number 19 K\/10\/MEM\/2019, the formula uses\nthe average publication of the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) in\nUSD\/barrel.<\/p>\n The reference period for the 1 September 2026 price setting is from\n25 July to 24 August 2026. During this period, the average Brent price\nwas US$87.91 per barrel, an 8.50% increase compared to the previous\nreference period (25 June to 24 July 2026), which was US$81.02 per\nbarrel. WTI also saw an increase, averaging US$82.32 per barrel, up\n7.91% from the previous period\u2019s US$76.29 per barrel.<\/p>\n This rise in average oil prices certainly puts pressure on domestic\noil import costs. However, the exchange rate provides some relief. The\naverage Rupiah during the 25 July to 24 August 2026 period was\nRp17,887.14\/US,\u2006s<\/em>t<\/em>r<\/em>e<\/em>n<\/em>g<\/em>t<\/em>h<\/em>e<\/em>n<\/em>i<\/em>n<\/em>g<\/em>b<\/em>y<\/em>0.39<\/span>.<\/p>\n This condition means that the potential adjustment for non-subsidised\nfuel prices may not be a straightforward increase. From the oil price\nperspective, there is room for an increase due to the significant rise\nin the reference period average. However, the strengthening Rupiah acts\nas a buffer, as it makes the cost of importing oil in Rupiah lighter.\nTherefore, while non-subsidised fuel prices have the potential to rise\non 1 September 2026, the possibility of prices being held steady remains\nopen.<\/p>\n As a note, Pertamina already implemented price adjustments for\nnon-subsidised fuel on 1 August 2026. In the Jabodetabek area, the price\nof Pertamax Turbo decreased to Rp18,300 per litre from Rp19,300 per\nlitre. A decrease was also seen in Pertamax Green 95, which dropped to\nRp16,600 per litre from Rp17,000 per litre, while Pertamax RON 92 fell\nto Rp15,950 per litre from Rp16,250 per litre. However, the August\nadjustment did not apply to all non-subsidised types; Pertamina Dex\nremained at the level of Rp21,000 per litre.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/calculating-fuel-prices-for-1-september-2026-an-increase-or-a-decrease-1788170384",
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"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
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