Non-subsidised fuel (BBM) prices have the potential to either\ndecrease or remain unchanged as of 1 August 2026. This projection aligns\nwith the average decline in global crude oil prices, even though the\nRupiah exchange rate has come under renewed pressure from the US Dollar.\nThese two factors are the primary determinants for the direction of\nnon-subsidised fuel price adjustments domestically.<\/p>\n
According to Refinitiv data, the average price of Brent crude in July\n2026 stood at US$83.87 per barrel, a slight decrease of 0.67% compared\nto the June 2026 average of US$84.43 per barrel. Meanwhile, the average\nprice of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at US$78.65 per barrel in\nJuly, down 3.56% from the June average of US$81.55 per barrel.<\/p>\n
Global oil price movements throughout July 2026 were quite volatile.\nAt the start of July, prices remained low as markets began to shed the\nrisk premium of the US-Iran war. The easing of tensions in the Middle\nEast and the reopening of shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz reduced\nconcerns regarding oil supply disruptions from the Gulf region. However,\noil prices rose again in the second half of July as markets closely\nmonitored supply risks following persistent tensions in the region.\nBrent briefly breached the US$100.69 per barrel level on 25 July 2026,\nwith WTI also rising to US$92.19 per barrel on the same day. Despite\nthis late-month surge, the monthly average still showed a decline due to\nthe significantly lower prices seen at the beginning of the month.<\/p>\n
Concurrently, the Rupiah remained under pressure throughout July.\nAccording to Refinitiv, the Rupiah weakened by 0.64% from the start of\nthe month to Friday (31 July 2026), reaching a position of\nRp17,990\/US.O<\/em>n<\/em>a<\/em>m<\/em>o<\/em>n<\/em>t<\/em>h<\/em>l<\/em>y<\/em>a<\/em>v<\/em>e<\/em>r<\/em>a<\/em>g<\/em>e<\/em>b<\/em>a<\/em>s<\/em>i<\/em>s<\/em>,\u2006t<\/em>h<\/em>e<\/em>R<\/em>u<\/em>p<\/em>i<\/em>a<\/em>h<\/em>a<\/em>l<\/em>s<\/em>o<\/em>s<\/em>h<\/em>o<\/em>w<\/em>e<\/em>d<\/em>p<\/em>r<\/em>e<\/em>s<\/em>s<\/em>u<\/em>r<\/em>e<\/em>,\u2006a<\/em>v<\/em>e<\/em>r<\/em>a<\/em>g<\/em>i<\/em>n<\/em>g<\/em>R<\/em>p<\/em>17,\u2006986.95\/U<\/em>S<\/em><\/span>\nin July, a 0.59% depreciation compared to the June average of\nRp17,880.68\/US$.<\/p>\n Regarding the August 2026 fuel prices, the government determines fuel\nprices based on a specific formula. The two main variables used are the\naverage global oil price and the Rupiah exchange rate, given the high\ndemand for imported oil. Based on the Decree of the Minister of Energy\nand Mineral Resources Number 19 K\/10\/MEM\/2019, the formula uses the\naverage publication price of the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) in\nUSD\/barrel. The period used for determining the current month\u2019s price\nranges from the 25th of two months prior to the 24th of the previous\nmonth.<\/p>\n During this reference period, the average Brent price was US$81.02\nper barrel, an 8.66% decrease compared to the previous reference period\n(25 May to 24 June 2026) of US$88.70 per barrel. A decrease was also\nobserved in WTI, which averaged US$76.29 per barrel, down 10.85% from\nthe previous period\u2019s US$85.58 per barrel. This decline in average oil\nprices provides room for lower domestic oil import costs.<\/p>\n However, the average Rupiah from 25 June to 24 July 2026 was at\nRp17,957.64\/US,\u2006w<\/em>e<\/em>a<\/em>k<\/em>e<\/em>n<\/em>i<\/em>n<\/em>g<\/em>b<\/em>y<\/em>0.55<\/span>.\nThis condition means that while there is room for non-subsidised fuel\nprices to drop, the margin is not entirely wide. The decline in oil\nprices provides downward momentum, while the weakening Rupiah limits the\nextent of the reduction.<\/p>\n Therefore, non-subsidised fuel prices have the potential to decrease\non 1 August 2026, though the possibility of prices being held steady\nremains open. The chance of prices being maintained arises from two\nconsiderations: first, the Rupiah remains under pressure and has\nbreached the Rp18,000\/US$ level; second, oil prices rose sharply at the\nend of July, even if the average for the reference period is down.\nAdditionally, the government and business entities may consider domestic\nprice stability, especially since non-subsidised fuel prices underwent\nseveral adjustments in June 2026.<\/p>\n Notably, Pertamina previously adjusted non-subsidised fuel prices in\nearly July 2026. As of 1 July 2026, adjustments primarily affected\nPertamax Turbo and non-subsidised diesel. In Jakarta, Pertamax Turbo RON\n98 dropped to Rp19,300 per litre from Rp20,750 per litre. Non-subsidised\ndiesel also saw decreases, with Dexlite falling to Rp19,700 per litre\nfrom Rp23,000, and Pertamina Dex dropping to Rp21,150 per litre from\nRp24,800. Meanwhile, Pertamax RON 92 remained unchanged at Rp16,250 per\nlitre, and Pertamax Green 95 remained at Rp17,000 per litre. Subsidised\nfuel prices also remained unchanged, with Pertalite at Rp10,000 per\nlitre and subsidised Solar at Rp6,800 per litre.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/calculating-fuel-prices-for-1-august-2026-will-they-rise-or-fall-1785491807",
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"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
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