Bracing for disaster<\/p>\n
MMI Ahyani, Bandung<\/p>\n
The massive earthquake and subsequent tsunami that hit Aceh
\nand other countries sharing the Indian Ocean on Sunday, claiming
\nthousands of lives, reminds us that we truly live in a
\ngeographically hazardous area.<\/p>\n
The entire southern part of Indonesia, starting from Sumatra,
\nJava, Bali, Nusa Tenggara to Maluku and Papua and also the
\nnortheastern part of the country -- Sulawesi and North Maluku --
\nconstitute active seismo-tectonic regions. Potential volcanic
\ndangers exist at places along these lines.<\/p>\n
Geological technology has been able to map out areas
\nvulnerable to geological disasters, such as earthquakes, tidal
\nwaves, volcanic eruptions, landslides and the like. However, it
\nis still impossible to predict when these disasters will actually
\nhit. Even if a natural disaster is predicted, the accuracy rate
\nis far from satisfactory. In some cases, scientists making such
\nwrong predictions can even be charged with a criminal offense for
\n\"disrupting public order and security.\"<\/p>\n
Prior to the recent tragedy, a seismologist from the Center
\nfor Geotechnological Research and Development of the Indonesian
\nInstitute of Sciences in Bandung, Danny H. Natawidjaya, issued a
\nsoft \"warning\" in this respect during a discussion on the geology
\nof the Sunda Straits held in Bandung in December 2003.<\/p>\n
He said that based on geological research and seismic cycle
\nrecords, the possibility of an earthquake measuring 9.0 on the
\nRichter Scale around the subduction zone in the west of Sumatra
\nwas at the end of its 200-year cycle.<\/p>\n
He noted that geological research around Mentawai showed that
\nthe area was hit by major earthquakes in 1381, 1608 and 1833.<\/p>\n
Experts have paid a lot of attention to areas around Mentawai
\nand Siberut because of their history of major earthquakes that
\noccur in 200-300 year cycles.<\/p>\n
This means of course that a major earthquake could hit this
\narea sometime in the next 50 years. A number of earthquake
\nmonitoring devices have been placed around the Mentawai and
\nSiberut group of islands.<\/p>\n
Existing geological data shows that seismic activity in the
\nsubduction zone of the Mentawai island group have raised them by
\nsome 2 meters. In Mentawai alone, six global positioning
\nsatellite stations have been installed to monitor the movement of
\ntectonic lithospheric plates.<\/p>\n
Data obtained from these stations shows that the islands in
\nMentawai have moved three to four centimeters towards Sumatra
\neach year. The conclusion is that energy is continuing to
\naccumulate in this subduction zone. Over time, this accumulated
\nenergy must be released through an earthquake.<\/p>\n
Speaking here on Monday about his prediction, Danny instead
\nremarked that the recent earthquake was not one that he had
\npredicted would occur. Thus it is highly likely that another
\nsimilar quake will happen sometime in the next 50 years.<\/p>\n
Danny added that movements on the bed of the Indian Ocean can
\ncause tension on either side of the fault line.<\/p>\n
If the accumulation of tension and energy at the sides of the
\ntectonic lithospheric plates or the subduction zone becomes
\nunbearable, more fresh earthquakes may occur.<\/p>\n
Given this information the public should remain alert and
\nprepared for potential earthquakes.<\/p>\n
This is not a time for blame, though. The expensive lessons we
\nhave learnt must enlighten us to prepare for future disasters.<\/p>\n
Of no less importance is to prepare communities living in
\ndisaster prone areas with adequate knowledge.<\/p>\n
The writer is a freelance journalist based in Bandung who has
\na special interest in environmental and earth affairs.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/bracing-for-disaster-1447893297",
"image": ""
},
"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}