{
    "success": true,
    "data": {
        "id": 1776666,
        "msgid": "bitter-reality-for-oil-markets-no-recovery-even-if-us-iran-peace-deal-is-reached-1780282562",
        "date": "2026-06-01 08:45:00",
        "title": "Bitter Reality for Oil Markets: No Recovery Even if US-Iran Peace Deal Is Reached",
        "author": "",
        "source": "CNBC",
        "tags": "",
        "topic": "Energy",
        "summary": "Global oil markets face a permanent disruption even if a US-Iran peace deal is reached, with the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control leading to significantly reduced tanker traffic. Analysts predict only 60-70% of pre-war transit volumes, as navigation becomes politically dependent rather than freely accessible. The Red Sea crisis serves as a cautionary tale, showing how geopolitical instability can cripple trade routes for years despite ceasefire efforts.",
        "content": "<p>Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia \u2013 Global oil markets face a new reality\npost-Iran conflict, with exports through the Strait of Hormuz unlikely\nto return to normal levels. This stems from shipowners now weighing the\nrisk of sudden combat in the Persian Gulf region. Citing CNBC\nInternational report on Monday, 1 June 2026, Western commercial vessels\nare likely to hesitate traversing the Strait of Hormuz if the route\nremains under Iran\u2019s de facto control. This concern is exacerbated by\nthe requirement to coordinate with Iran\u2019s Revolutionary Guard Corps,\nrisking US sanctions violations. This bleak scenario has highly\nunpredictable consequences given the Strait of Hormuz\u2019s critical role in\nglobal energy markets. Freedom of navigation in the strait had never\nbeen seriously challenged until Iran closed the maritime route in\nresponse to the US and Israel\u2019s offensive launched on 28 February.\nIran\u2019s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the largest oil\nsupply disruption in history, pressuring the US to quickly reach an\nagreement as global economic threats escalate. Tehran appears to be\nleveraging this significant influence to strengthen its control over the\nstrait in any peace settlement aimed at ending the war. Middle Eastern\nleaders believe Iran has now fully seized control of the Strait of\nHormuz. This was stated by Amos Hochstein, former senior adviser on\nenergy and national security for former US President Joe Biden. \u2018No\nmatter what happens, Iran will control the Strait of Hormuz in the near\nfuture. What\u2019s in the agreement no longer matters. Everyone in the\nregion believes this,\u2019 Hochstein told CNBC. Oil tanker traffic through\nthe Strait of Hormuz prior to the conflict may represent the peak of\ntransit for the foreseeable future. This view was expressed by Helima\nCroft, Global Commodities Strategy Head at RBC Capital Markets. \u2018Any end\nto the conflict that allows Iran to maintain operational control and\ninfluence over the Strait of Hormuz will result in significantly lower\nflows through the waterway, in our view,\u2019 Croft stated in a client note\non Thursday. Traffic under full Iranian control is projected to rebound\nto only 60-70% of pre-war volumes. This forecast was made by Richard\nMeade, Editor-in-Chief of Lloyd\u2019s List, during a briefing on 21 May.\n\u2018This will not trigger a recession like some of the doomsday scenarios\nwe previously discussed, but it precludes a return to pre-war\nconditions,\u2019 Meade added. Meade continued that the situation creates\nsomething far more dangerous for international trade. \u2018This creates\nsomething more dangerous: a permanently divided strait where access\ndepends on political alignment rather than freedom of navigation,\u2019 Meade\nadded. Red Sea Crisis Offers Bitter Lesson The geopolitical crisis that\ncrippled shipping in the Red Sea serves as a stark example of how\npolitical instability can disrupt major trade routes far longer than\ninitially anticipated. The Iran-aligned Houthi militant group began\nattacking commercial vessels in November 2023 in response to Israel\u2019s\nwar in Gaza. Attacks commenced on 19 November with a cargo ship\nhijacking and continued with missile and drone strikes for two full\nyears. As a result, daily traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the\nmain route connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, plummeted by over\nhalf\u2014from 75 vessels on 19 November 2023 to just 31 by 30 January 2024.\nEven over two years after the incident, shipping traffic through the\nstrait has not returned to pre-crisis levels. One of the biggest lessons\nfrom the Red Sea crisis is that a group does not need a massive naval\nfleet to cause major disruptions to global maritime trade routes. This\ntheory was outlined by Tomer Raanan, a maritime risk analyst at Lloyd\u2019s\nList. Although the Houthis have not attacked ships in the Red Sea since\nlate last year, this has not been sufficient to restore shipping volumes\nto 2023 levels. This was explained by Jack Kennedy, Head of Middle East\nCountry Risk at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. It remains uncertain\nwhether the Strait of Hormuz will experience shipping paralysis similar\nto the Red Sea crisis. Commercial shipowners are forced to decide\nwhether they trust any US-Iran agreement, if solidified, to provide\nadequate security assurances for their vessels. The current ceasefire is\nlikely to persist temporarily as the Trump administration appears to\nprioritise improving commercial vessel access through the Strait of\nHormuz, Kennedy noted, citing a shift in US policy focus. However, if\nIran ultimately agrees to open the Strait of Hormuz unconditionally for\ninternational transit, traffic recovery to levels<\/p>",
        "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/bitter-reality-for-oil-markets-no-recovery-even-if-us-iran-peace-deal-is-reached-1780282562",
        "image": ""
    },
    "sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
    "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}