Bird flu outbreak impacts Asian politics<\/p>\n
Eric Teo Chu-cheow, The China Daily, Asia News Network, Beijing<\/p>\n
In Southeast Asia, avian or bird flu has infected poultry in
\nfive of the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries:
\nThailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Indonesia. A regional
\nmeeting convened by Thailand on Jan. 28 in Bangkok clearly
\nhighlighted the flu's \"regional dimension\" and the utmost
\nnecessity for regional co-operation and a regional approach in
\neradicating it.<\/p>\n
But avian flu is also affecting politics in Southeast Asia,
\ngiven that Indonesia and Thailand are holding elections in 2004
\nand 2005 respectively.<\/p>\n
Any untoward repercussions could have serious political
\nimplications for the incumbents, whose political futures might
\nnow depend on how quickly the virus is eradicated.<\/p>\n
In Malaysia and the Philippines, which are holding elections
\nthis year, authorities fear that any avian flu contamination from
\ntheir neighbors could complicate the electoral campaigns of the
\nincumbent administrations.<\/p>\n
Politically, the avian flu could be a very powerful electoral
\ntool. It has clearly created in Southeast Asia a renewed
\nawareness for good governance and especially government
\ntransparency and accountability.<\/p>\n
The buoyant Thai economy could be adversely affected,
\ndepending on how fast the flu is eradicated from the kingdom.
\nPoultry farmers, especially in the poor rural areas, have had
\nmillions of their chickens culled and are demanding more
\ncompensation and benefits.<\/p>\n
Fighting cock farms are also affected, which will likely
\nresult in huge losses for the breeders of these prized birds.<\/p>\n
Furthermore, containers of slaughtered chickens are being
\nreturned to Thai ports, resulting in huge losses for Thai poultry
\nexporters as Thailand is the world's fourth largest chicken
\nexporter.<\/p>\n
Chicken consumption has plunged and overall confidence is
\neroding in an economy that was touted as the third fastest-
\ngrowing in Asia, after China and Viet Nam, this year.<\/p>\n
A sagging economy and confidence would definitely have a major
\npolitical impact on Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's re-
\nelection bid in February 2005, should the avian flu epidemic not
\nbe quickly and effectively contained. Thaksin, who has been
\ndubbed \"Thailand's superman,\" is suddenly feeling vulnerable a
\nyear before the next election.<\/p>\n
In Indonesia, which initially resisted the mass culling of its
\naffected poultry, President Megawati Soekarnoputri finally
\nsuccumbed to pressure from the World Health Organization and
\ninternational opinion to take drastic action in order to protect
\npublic health.<\/p>\n
The move incurred the wrath of poultry farmers across the
\ncountry, ahead of crucial legislative and presidential elections
\nthis year.<\/p>\n
Public confidence is of the utmost importance to the leaders
\nand to their electoral chances. This confidence could plunge
\nshould bird-to-human contagion of the virus be confirmed in the
\ncoming weeks.<\/p>\n
Government accountability and transparency are now de rigueur
\nand form the basis for good corporate governance, thanks first to
\nthe SARS epidemic last year, followed by the current avian flu
\noutbreak.<\/p>\n
But perhaps one of the most important lessons unfolding in the
\navian flu crisis is the utmost importance and urgency of bridging
\nthe socio-economic gap between richer urban communities and
\npoorer rural ones.<\/p>\n
The rapidity of the flu epidemic has again revealed the extent
\nof poverty in rural Asia and the socio-economic cleavages in
\nAsian societies today.<\/p>\n
A controversy is already brewing in Thailand over the
\n\"injustice\" of culling chicken in the poorer rural farms, given
\nonly modest compensation, whereas poultry bred by big
\nagricultural conglomerates and those in the Bangkok periphery
\nneed only be vaccinated to be spared.<\/p>\n
In Indonesia, there were initial concerns that unfair vested
\ninterests had prevented the culling of millions of fowl,
\nespecially when poor farmers, who had their chicken mass-culled,
\nwere not financially compensated, given the nation's huge budget
\ndeficits. Agricultural Southeast Asia needs urgent and
\ncoordinated socio-economic policies.<\/p>\n
The avian flu underscores the importance of a more aggressive
\npolicy in wiping out poverty and balancing gains in society.
\nBeneath Asia's vertiginous boom still lie some \"poor\" economies
\nand marginalized societies, which not only breed diseases but sow
\nthe seeds of social unrest and political destabilization.<\/p>\n
Social policies need to be urgently designed and effectively
\nimplemented in order to safeguard stability; this is indeed the
\ntrue political dimension and reality check on the current avian
\nflu epidemic in the region.<\/p>\n
ASEAN governments and public opinion are bracing themselves
\nfor a challenging year ahead as threats of avian flu, SARS and
\nterrorism complicate politics, especially in a crucial electoral
\nyear in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand.<\/p>",
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