Big power cataclysms eased Israel out of Gaza<\/p>\n
By Bradley Burston<\/p>\n
TEL AVIV (Reuter): For many Palestinians, the 27 years that
\npassed before Israel pulled out of the Gaza Strip on Wednesday
\nfelt like forever.<\/p>\n
But the withdrawal under Israel's peace deal with its once
\ndeadly foe the PLO might have taken much longer had it not been
\nfor bedrock shifts in the roles of faraway superpowers.<\/p>\n
The U.S.-led Gulf War offensive against Iraq and the breakup
\nof the Soviet Union were crucial in turning the Israel-PLO
\nrelationship from relentless blood feud to uneasy partnership in
\nPalestinian self-rule, analysts said.<\/p>\n
An Israeli defense ministry strategic analyst said the end of
\nthe Cold War was a kind of \"declaration of independence\" that
\nallowed both Israelis and Palestinians to secretly conclude the
\npeace deal they signed in Washington in September.<\/p>\n
\"With the U.S. and post-Soviet Russia as co-sponsors of the
\nMiddle East peace process, the sides could move forward knowing
\nthat Syria, a pivotal player, would be limited in its response
\nover being 'left out' as the sides moved forward,\" he said.<\/p>\n
\"Syria, without Soviet might at its back, simply doesn't have
\nthe same crack to its whip,\" said the analyst, who declined to be
\nidentified.<\/p>\n
Joseph Alpher, director of Israel's Jaffee Center for
\nStrategic Studies, said the collapse of the Soviet Union created
\na one-superpower world that paved the way for Israeli-PLO peace.<\/p>\n
\"When the U.S. led the coalition in the Gulf War it thrust
\nitself as that single superpower into the Middle East in a way
\nunprecedented in the last 50 years,\" Alpher said.<\/p>\n
Most of the PLO's Arab allies backed Washington's move, and
\nthe organization's support for Iraq took a crippling toll.<\/p>\n
\"In siding with Iraq, the PLO emerged from the war in a
\nposition of weakness unique in its history,\" Alpher said.<\/p>\n
\"It had effectively burned its bridges with the Arab world,
\nwith (PLO Chairman) Yasser Arafat persona non grata in most Arab
\ncapitals, in Cairo, in Riyadh, certainly in Damascus.\"<\/p>\n
The PLO lost its traditional financial aid sources, mainly
\nSaudi Arabia and Kuwait, and its coffers emptied rapidly.
\n\"Clearly, this had a rather major influence on Arafat's readiness
\nto make compromises,\" Alpher said.<\/p>\n
Arafat's money woes also compromised his ability to counter a
\nrising threat to his leadership posed by Islamic militants who
\ncapitalized on anti-Western undercurrents among Palestinians.<\/p>\n
Keen to overcome then-Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Shamir's
\nhardline opposition to talking to \"PLO killer terrorists,\"
\nWashington brought muscular leverage to bear.<\/p>\n
Shamir, reminded by the administration of Israel's vulnerable
\nhigh profile as the largest single recipient of U.S. foreign aid,
\nagreed to meet Palestinians not explicitly tied to the PLO when
\nMiddle East talks began in Madrid in October 1991.<\/p>\n
\"Shamir got an offer he couldn't refuse,\" Alpher said. \"But he
\nhas made it pretty clear what his real intentions were.\"<\/p>\n
A bitter foe of ceding occupied Arab land, Shamir said after
\nhe was crushed by Yitzhak Rabin in a 1992 election he had
\nintended to drag out the peace talks for 10 years.<\/p>\n
Winds from Washington blew warmer after the poll, as Rabin
\nannounced a partial freeze on Jewish settlements and promised
\nPalestinian self-rule in the occupied lands within a year.<\/p>\n
The Bush adminstration promptly announced the granting of $10
\nbillion in loan guarantees for Israeli immigrant needs.<\/p>\n
Washington has since signaled its approval in gifts of used
\naircraft, and sales of an advanced version of the F15 warplane.<\/p>\n
The Palestinians have also begun to reap U.S. benefits from
\nthe peace deal, with the administration twisting allies' arms to
\nwring aid donations for the occupied lands.<\/p>\n
U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher, visiting the new
\nJericho self-rule zone in the West Bank on Tuesday, reiterated an
\nAmerican promise to supply Palestinians $500 million in aid over
\nthe next five years.<\/p>\n
\"The aid may prove critical to the success or failure of the
\npeace, and the real test of foreign promises to stand by the PLO
\nand the Israelis,\" said the defense ministry official.<\/p>\n
\"It's going to take more than just kind words to fashion an
\namiable divorce from what has been a long, murderous marriage.\"<\/p>\n
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