{
    "success": true,
    "data": {
        "id": 1673607,
        "msgid": "bi-chief-outlines-3-channels-of-impact-from-us-israel-vs-iran-war-on-the-economy-1776055860",
        "date": "2026-04-13 10:56:24",
        "title": "BI Chief Outlines 3 Channels of Impact from US-Israel vs Iran War on the Economy",
        "author": "",
        "source": "CNBC",
        "tags": "",
        "topic": "Economy",
        "summary": "Bank Indonesia's Senior Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti has outlined three key channels through which the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict could affect the global economy, including Indonesia: financial channels leading to capital flight and a stronger US dollar, rising commodity prices due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions to trade and production via global supply chain issues. While direct impacts on Indonesia are moderated by inflows into government securities and stocks, the overall effects include reduced emerging market flows, higher oil prices benefiting some export commodities like coal and CPO, and potential global stagflation with slowing growth and rising inflation. BI emphasises the importance of cautious monetary and fiscal policy responses to mitigate these risks and attract domestic investment.",
        "content": "<p>Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Bank Indonesia\u2019s (BI) Senior Deputy\nGovernor Destry Damayanti has shared the impacts of the Iran versus\nIsrael and United States (US) war on the global economy, including\nIndonesia.<\/p>\n<p>BI divides the impacts of this war into three channels, namely the\nfinancial channel, commodity prices, and trade or production.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe first channel is the financial one. The point is that this\nchannel is tightening. The direct impact of Iran-Israel is not a global\nfinancial hub. The market reaction in the Middle East is limited. But\nthe indirect impact is significant because it involves the US as a\nglobal financial hub,\u201d said Destry at the Central Banking Forum 2026\nthemed \u2018Indonesia\u2019s Economic Resilience in Facing Global Exchange Rate\nVolatility\u2019, in Jakarta on Monday (14\/4\/2026).<\/p>\n<p>Destry revealed that the indirect impact from this channel includes\nrisk-off sentiment where investors avoid risks in the market, thus\nincreasing safe haven activities. As a result, this condition triggers\ncapital shifts from developing countries to advanced economies. This\ncauses the US dollar index to rise. Indonesia also feels this risk.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLike it or not, flows to advanced economies, including the US DXY\n(dollar index), are increasing. Flows to emerging markets, not just in\nIndonesia, are also decreasing,\u201d said Destry.<\/p>\n<p>Destry confirmed that Indonesia is affected by this situation, but\nthe Indonesian market still records capital inflows into Government\nSecurities (SBN), stocks, and Bank Indonesia Rupiah Securities\n(SRBI).<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFlows to emerging markets are not just to Indonesia but also\ndecreasing. In Indonesia, it is felt although there are inflows into\nSBN, a little into stocks, SRBI. But overall outflow of Rp 21 trillion,\u201d\nexplained Destry.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, the second channel is commodity prices. The direct\nimpact is on oil prices. This direct impact is because Iran blocks the\nStrait of Hormuz, which is a strategic global shipping route.<\/p>\n<p>According to BI\u2019s calculations, Destry stated that Iran\u2019s oil\nproduction is only 5%, but the Strait of Hormuz contributes 20% to\nglobal oil trade.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis increases oil prices, so oil prices three days ago had reached\na US-Iran agreement. But last night there was no agreement yet. As a\nresult, everything rises, DXY rises above 100, regional currencies in\nadvanced economies experience weakness,\u201d she explained.<\/p>\n<p>The indirect impact from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and\nrising oil prices affects other commodity prices. BI sees rises in gold,\ncoal, aluminium, and CPO prices.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cCoal has just risen because it is preparing alternative energy. CPO\nrises. The indirect impact is quite good for Indonesia because there is\ncoal, CPO, gold. The impact has two sides: oil prices rise but export\ncommodities also increase,\u201d said Destry.<\/p>\n<p>Then, the third channel is trade and production. According to Destry,\nin terms of trade, Iran\u2019s contribution to global GDP is only 1%, and its\nglobal exports-imports are below 1%.<\/p>\n<p>However, due to obstacles in the Strait of Hormuz, there is\ndisruption in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, so there is indirect impact on\nother countries, including China, Iraq, Turkey, and India, which are\nglobal production centres.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis increases shipping and logistics costs, so there is global\nsupply chain disruption. In conclusion, global commodity prices rise,\ngold, coal, nickel, agriculture also rise. The latest is plastic because\nof supply chain, ultimately leading to production decline,\u201d said\nDestry.<\/p>\n<p>From these three channels, Destry stated that global GDP or economy\nwill slow down and inflation will rise.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis is called stagflation, which is not good. Policy responses\nbecome important. Some countries\u2019 fiscal policies will be loose.\nMonetary policy that trends downward will be more cautious because now\nthere is a competition to make domestic assets attractive,\u201d she\nemphasised.<\/p>",
        "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/bi-chief-outlines-3-channels-of-impact-from-us-israel-vs-iran-war-on-the-economy-1776055860",
        "image": ""
    },
    "sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
    "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}