{
    "success": true,
    "data": {
        "id": 1805543,
        "msgid": "beware-of-leaking-hell-hitting-indonesia-researcher-reveals-the-facts-1781578251",
        "date": "2026-06-16 09:15:00",
        "title": "Beware of 'Leaking Hell' Hitting Indonesia, Researcher Reveals the Facts",
        "author": "",
        "source": "CNBC",
        "tags": "",
        "topic": "Agriculture",
        "summary": "Researchers warn that a strong El Ni\u00f1o event, potentially combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, is likely to develop in the second half of 2026, threatening severe drought in Indonesia. The combination could replicate the devastating 1997-1998 conditions, significantly reducing rainfall and increasing forest fire risks. The Indonesian meteorological agency (BMKG) has urged the agricultural sector to prepare by adjusting planting schedules and adopting drought-resistant crops.",
        "content": "<p>Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon, marked by rising\nsea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is\nforecast to arrive soon. Based on various oceanographic and atmospheric\nindicators, the tendency for an El Ni\u00f1o event to develop is occurring in\nthe second half to the end of 2026. Therefore, all parties need to\nanticipate its impacts, including in Indonesia. Professor R. Dwi Susanto\nof the University of Maryland stated that various observational data and\nclimate models show changes in Pacific Ocean conditions leading to the\nformation of El Ni\u00f1o. \u201cOne of the main indicators is the increasing heat\nreserve below the surface of the Pacific Ocean, which has the potential\nto push the movement of warm water masses eastward,\u201d said Professor R.\nDwi Susanto, quoted from a written statement on Tuesday (16\/6\/2026).\nAccording to Dwi, observational data and climate models show an\naccumulation of heat below the surface of the Pacific Ocean.\nConcurrently, Kelvin waves are beginning to push warm water masses from\nthe western Pacific towards the eastern Pacific, which is one of the\ncharacteristics of El Ni\u00f1o development. He assessed that these changes\ncan be observed through subsurface sea temperatures, sea level height,\nand wind patterns in the tropical Pacific region. Various international\nclimate prediction models also show the same tendency. \u201cIndonesia holds\nan important position in the global climate system because it is located\nin the western Pacific warm pool, the region with the warmest tropical\nsea surface temperatures in the world,\u201d he explained. Additionally,\nIndonesia is the pathway for the Indonesian Throughflow (Arlindo)\nconnecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Thus, changes in sea\nconditions in Indonesian waters can be an important indicator for\nunderstanding El Ni\u00f1o development. Monitoring sea temperatures, Arlindo\ndynamics, and shifts in atmospheric convection centres in Indonesia\u2019s\nmaritime region can help detect climate change early. Dwi further\ncautioned that El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s impact on Indonesia is not solely determined by\nconditions in the Pacific Ocean. Interaction with the Indian Ocean\nDipole (IOD) in the Indian Ocean also plays a major role in determining\nthe severity of the impact. \u201cWe cannot just look at the El Ni\u00f1o index.\nIndian Ocean Dipole conditions must also be monitored because the\ncombination of both can produce a much greater impact than if only one\nphenomenon occurs,\u201d he said. He cited the 1997-1998 event when a strong\nEl Ni\u00f1o occurred simultaneously with a positive IOD. The combination of\nthese two phenomena caused a significant decrease in rainfall and\nincreased the risk of drought and forest and land fires in various parts\nof Indonesia. According to him, the development of a positive IOD can be\nmonitored through changes in sea surface temperatures in the waters\nsouth of Java and Sumatra. Increasingly strong cooling in that region is\ngenerally associated with an increased risk of drought. Dwi added that\nseveral current prediction models show a chance of El Ni\u00f1o developing at\nthe end of 2026 with a tendency to be in the strong to very strong\ncategory. Therefore, various mitigation measures need to be prepared\nearly, including through water resource management, adjustment of\nplanting patterns, and strengthening efforts to prevent forest and land\nfires. \u201cPreparations must be made without causing panic. The important\nthing is to ensure climate information can be used as a basis for\nplanning and mitigation,\u201d he explained. The Meteorology, Climatology,\nand Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that the 2026 dry season will\ntrigger a delay in the first planting season. However, BMKG stressed\nthat farmers can still take advantage of opportunities during this long\ndry season. \u201cThe sea surface temperature anomaly in the central and\neastern Pacific Ocean has passed the neutral threshold for 5 dasarian.\nBMKG predicts that the El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon will soon be active and will\npersist until early 2027,\u201d said Ardhasena during a press conference on\nthe Development of the 2026 Dry Season in Indonesia broadcast on BMKG\u2019s\nYouTube channel. \u201cThe probability of El Ni\u00f1o intensity reaching the\nModerate category is currently 98%. And the probability of reaching the\nStrong category is currently 62%,\u201d he continued. This figure has risen,\nwhere previously the probability of a strong El Ni\u00f1o was less than 20%.\nMeanwhile, Ardhasena added, in the Indian Ocean there is a chance of a\nPositive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon occurring during the\nperiod of June-November 2026. \u201cThe El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon, as we know,\ncauses climate deviations in various parts of the world, not only in\nIndonesia, with different patterns and impacts,\u201d he said. \u201cFor the\nIndonesian region, it is affected by El Ni\u00f1o suppressing rainfall. So\nconditions are generally drier from June 2026 to January 2027. However,\nit should be noted that around October 2026 we are already entering the\nrainy season. So, this is just a general picture of El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s impact,\u201d\nArdhasena explained. Ardhasena stated that in facing this dry season,\nBMKG urges the optimisation of technical irrigation in areas that have\nirrigation systems, as well as adjusting to agricultural commodities\nthat are adaptive to dry conditions, such as horticultural crops\nsuitable for dry conditions. \u201cFacing this long dry season means the\nfirst planting season could be delayed,\u201d said Ardhasena. \u201cBut, during\nthis dry period, farmers can also adapt by planting horticultural crops\nthat are suitable during this dry period. So there are many things that\ncan still be done to face this dry season condition,\u201d he said.<\/p>",
        "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/beware-of-leaking-hell-hitting-indonesia-researcher-reveals-the-facts-1781578251",
        "image": ""
    },
    "sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
    "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}