Be prepared to become a good loser next Monday<\/p>\n
Leng C. Tan, Jakarta<\/p>\n
Quentin Tarantino, the director of movies like Pulp Fiction
\nand Kill Bill, once said that the most interesting time in
\nHollywood is when they do not know what works anymore. That is
\nwhen directors take chances. And taking a chance is what a
\nsubstantial number of Indonesian voters seem to be doing, as
\nreflected in the continued appeal and popularity of Susilo
\nBambang Yudhoyono. The essence of his popularity can be reduced
\nto this obvious fact: He is the embodiment of people's hope for
\nreform and change, however misguided that may be, it was the case
\nfor previous administrations.<\/p>\n
But therein lies the appeal of democracy: You have the chance
\nfor a peaceful change of government. If you are unhappy with the
\nperformance of the current government, it can be voted out of
\noffice come the electoral day of reckoning. It has been said that
\nthe Megawati government is \"defined by underachievement\". A
\nlitany of grouses can be heard that not enough was done to help
\nthe common people get by. Perhaps a new leader can. Indeed
\nSusilo's campaign motto is Bersama Kita Bisa (Together We Can).<\/p>\n
But can they? Much has been made of the fact that any Susilo
\ngovernment will have difficulty passing reform bills through the
\nlegislature since his party has only 55 legislative seats. The
\npolitical parties with the largest legislative presence, the
\nGolkar Party and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle
\n(PDI-P), can block the passage of bills proposed by the minority
\nPresident. Such a scenario where the executive branch wrestles
\nmightily with the legislative branch cannot be dismissed. Who
\nwill prevail in such a tussle? Will the military come to the aid
\nof the former Army general turned president in the case of a
\ngridlock to help him stare down the opposition?<\/p>\n
But all need not be lost if one looks at what the Argentine
\nPresident Nestor Kirchner did when he took office on a shaky
\nmandate last year after defeating (by default) Carlos Menem in
\nthe runoff. He was able to make changes that did not require the
\nsupport of Congress or the courts. \"Presenting himself as a
\ncommon man fighting against corruption and injustice, he has
\nappealed directly to the public for support. The strategy worked.
\nKirchner has tackled a reform agenda with the fiery ardor of an
\nindependent\" (Newsweek, July 7, 2003).<\/p>\n
So, there is little likelihood of a honeymoon period in a
\nSusilo presidency because the first hundred days will be critical
\nin establishing himself as the new statesman of Indonesia, one
\nwho rules in the public interest and not just another politician-
\nturned-president. In this way, by transforming his popularity
\nstakes into cumulative political capital, Susilo can then \"teflon
\ncoat\" his government and shield it from opposition attack.<\/p>\n
Given the political forces amassed by Megawati's PDI-P with
\nGolkar et al., this juggernaut has meant that a Susilo victory is
\nno longer a forgone conclusion. Once this so-called Nationhood
\nCoalition's political machine kicks in, there is no telling the
\nfate of Susilo's political destiny. Never mind what an NGO
\n\"democracy salesman,\" who has been criss-crossing the
\narchipelago, told me of Susilo's immense popularity wherever he
\nwent. Never mind the rumor that according to the sultan of Jogja,
\nthe wahyu is coming our way. Between divine revelation and
\npolitical machines (a seeming euphemism for money politics), who
\ndo you think will prevail in this material world?<\/p>\n
That is not all. Arrayed against Susilo are the country's
\narmed forces. Despite a pledge of political neutrality, the
\nscenario is more complex: The dominant forces are the Army (its
\ntop brass) and the Police, both of which are said to be for Mega
\n(recall the al-Zaytun affair as well as reported cases in
\nBanyumas and Medan). Then, there is the civil service, where
\nstate officials are also supposed to be neutral, but the scenario
\nagain favors the incumbent.<\/p>\n
This can perhaps be seen as the \"natural\" advantages of an
\nincumbent. Witness Megawati's recent visit to West Nusa Tenggara
\nwhere she handed over government grants worth Rp 17 billion for
\ncommunity development at the district level across the province.
\nSuch gestures are being replicated throughout the archipelago.<\/p>\n
Such practices are par for the course and not something that
\nSusilo can easily, or legally, counter. On the other hand, given
\nthe mood for change in this country that is cutting across party
\nlines and religious divides, this is not something that Mega can
\neasily counter either.<\/p>\n
Still Susilo's commanding lead over Mega is slowly being
\nchipped away by the forces aligned with her, principally the
\nTaufik (T1 -- as in Terminator 1) Kiemas political machinery and
\nAkbar Tandjung (T2 -- as in Terminator 2)\/Golkar machinery. Mega
\nis not yet the lost cause that some have made her out to be. Last
\nweek's polling survey by Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicated showed that
\nthe gap had closed rather significantly, with 41.3 percent for
\nSusilo and 34.6 percent for Mega. Indeed, one notable commentator
\nhas also opined in this newspaper: \"The race is too close to
\ncall\". His comment carries some weight because of his brother's
\nposition on Susilo's campaign team.<\/p>\n
That is a good thing. According to democracy theorists, this
\nis a prerequisite before elections can be considered authentic:
\nThe winner should be unpredictable. But whether that is really a
\ngood thing in emerging democracies like Indonesia is not so clear
\nas it can give rise to the losing candidate contesting the
\nvalidity of the election results, with the ensuing instability.
\nThis happened in the Philippines and it took some worrisome time
\nbefore Gloria Arroyo was finally declared the winner. This too
\nhappened in the United States with both Al Gore and George Bush
\nin the 2000 elections but America is an established democracy and
\ncan withstand the fallout of the tussle better than emerging
\ndemocracies like Indonesia can.<\/p>\n
It is to be expected that the losing side would not take the
\ndefeat well. The former general Wiranto tried to contest the
\nvalidity of the election results in the first round of the direct
\npresidential contest but was unable to furnish evidence to back
\nup his charges.<\/p>\n
It is here that politicians should learn from the PAN leader
\nAmien Rais who took his electoral defeat in the first round
\ngraciously. Or they can take a leaf from Akbar Tandjung, who took
\nhis defeat at the Golkar convention stoically and did not
\nchallenge the validity of the voting results. He knew the rules
\nof the game and abided by them.<\/p>\n
So, however close the margin between victory and defeat in the
\ncoming second round of the presidential elections, it is hoped
\nthat both candidates would accept the election results, whatever
\nthe outcome. To do otherwise is really a case of sour grapes. In
\nshort, be a good loser.<\/p>\n
So, let us hope for a convincing win by either side or there
\nmay be trouble ahead. Brace yourself while the Indonesian
\nelectorate decides who to vote for on Sept. 20. Will they take a
\nchance with Susilo, who has promised new and better leadership,
\nor with Megawati, who has promised better stewardship of the
\ncountry? Democracy seems a rather \"chancey\" thing but Tarantino
\nis right: It has been a \"most interesting time\" in Indonesia
\nfollowing the elections with bated breath.<\/p>\n
The writer is a Visiting Fellow at Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicated,
\nJakarta and can be reached at cheeleng@cps-sss.org<\/p>",
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