The Financial Services Authority\u2019s (OJK) Banking Sector Orientation\nSurvey (SBPO) indicates that banking sector performance remains solid,\nyet expectations among bankers regarding macroeconomic conditions have\ndeteriorated into pessimistic territory.<\/p>\n
Banking performance remains robust as reflected in the Banking\nBusiness Orientation Index (IBP), which stood at 56 in Q1 2026,\nsignalling an optimistic level. However, banking projections as measured\nby the Macroeconomic Conditions Expectation Index (IKM) plummeted into\npessimistic territory at 45.<\/p>\n
The decline is driven by predictions of currency weakness and rising\ninflation. \u201cConfidence in rising inflation rates is driven by seasonal\nfactors such as Ramadan, Eid al-Fitr celebrations and Lunar New Year\nfestivities, which increase the rise in prices of goods and services,\u201d\naccording to the OJK SBPO official release issued on Monday, 9 March\n2026.<\/p>\n
The OJK noted that the decline is also influenced by low base effects\nfrom the previous year, as electricity tariff discounts were applied\nlast year but are not being reinstated in Q1 2026. Meanwhile, the\nexchange rate is expected to weaken amid persistently high global\ngeopolitical tensions.<\/p>\n
Despite these concerns, Indonesia\u2019s economic growth is projected to\naccelerate, driven by anticipated increases in consumer spending in the\nfirst quarter of 2026. The OJK survey also showed that the majority of\nrespondents remain confident that banking sector risks in the first\nquarter can be managed and controlled.<\/p>\n
This is evidenced by the Risk Perception Index (IPR) of 57, which\nremains in optimistic territory, reflecting confidence that credit\nquality will remain sound. The Net Foreign Exchange Position (PDN)\nremains at low levels with foreign currency assets and claims exceeding\nforeign currency liabilities (long position).<\/p>\n
Liquidity risk is also expected to remain under control, driven by\nexpectations that banking liquidity instruments and third-party funds\n(DPK) will continue to grow. As projected DPK growth is expected to\nexceed projected credit distribution growth, net cash flow in Q1 2026 is\nprojected to increase. This projected increase is also consistent with\nlocal government funds beginning to flow in Q1 2026.<\/p>\n
Banking performance expectations for Q1 2026 remain at optimistic\nlevels with the Performance Expectations Index (IEK) at 67. The OJK\nconducts the SBPO quarterly to obtain insights from the banking industry\nregarding the direction of the economy, perceptions of banking risks,\nand banking business trends in the coming quarter.<\/p>\n
The survey was conducted in January 2026 involving 93 responding\nbanks, whose combined assets represent 94.17 per cent of total assets of\nuniversal banks based on data from December 2025.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/banking-sector-perception-survey-shows-mixed-outlook-on-economic-conditions-1773108750", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }