Australia raises East Timor stakes<\/p>\n
By Sid Astbury<\/p>\n
SYDNEY (DPA): Australian Prime Minister John Howard visits
\nBali for talks on East Timor next week in the knowledge that both
\nhe and President B.J. Habibie would like the former Portuguese
\ncolony to stay a part of Indonesia -- albeit with a level of
\nautonomy not accorded other troubled provinces like Aceh and
\nIrian Jaya.<\/p>\n
Howard's reasons for favoring integration are
\ncharacteristically pragmatic. He knows that Australia would end
\nup subsidizing the new nation. Canberra would also gather the
\nopprobrium of future Indonesian leaders for aiding and abetting
\nin the dismemberment of the republic.<\/p>\n
Howard goes into the talks promising only to \"underline our
\nconcern\" over the risk that militias armed by the Indonesian
\nmilitary will tip East Timor into the sort of civil strife that
\npreceded the arrival of Indonesian troops in 1975. He has said
\npublicly that the 15,000 Indonesian troops in East Timor have
\n\"not done enough to discourage the violence and killings\".<\/p>\n
Habibie's reasons for resisting the clamor for independence
\nare equally understandable. He doesn't want to go into June's
\ngeneral election wounded by a failure to keep the country intact.
\nHe also wants to retain the support of the military, which has
\nlost 1,400 men in East Timor since it integrated in 1975. There
\nisn't a general enthusiasm among Indonesians to set East Timor
\nfree.<\/p>\n
Howard and Habibie know that the international pressure behind
\nthe independence movement, so strong just a couple of months ago,
\nhas subsided. NATO action in Yugoslavia has switched the focus of
\nattention to Europe. Among world leaders there is little appetite
\nfor intervention to ease into being a new nation of only 800,000
\npeople in a distant and remote part of the world.<\/p>\n
The bloodshed in East Timor has also helped change
\nperceptions. It's no longer possible to argue that almost all
\nEast Timorese would vote for freedom if given the opportunity to
\ndo so in a plebicite. There are thousands who, for whatever
\nreason, would not tick the secession box. The gangs now in
\ncontrol of Dili's streets are loyal to Jakarta.<\/p>\n
Changed perceptions about East Timor have emboldened the
\nmercurial Habibie to backtrack on his original promise to set
\nEast Timor free if the autonomy option is rejected. A recognition
\nthat the military and some cabinet members were against his
\nsurprise offer has also colored his thinking.<\/p>\n
Habibie agreed to the talks because Australia has become the
\nwestern world's proxy in negotiations over the future of East
\nTimor. It is incumbent on him to let foreign heads of government
\nregister their disapproval of East Timor's seeming drift into
\nchaos. Above all, he has nothing to lose by listening to Howard.<\/p>\n
Howard pushed for the talks in response to a welter of
\ncriticism that Australia has failed to influence events in East
\nTimor. Not very convincingly, Howard has declared he is \"very
\nstrongly committed\" to a United Nations-monitored consultation
\nprocess on the autonomy offer that is supposed to begin in July.
\nHe will be reaffirming that commitment in his talks with Habibie.<\/p>\n
Howard surprised many by asking to meet Habibie. His
\nforwardness may signify that Australia is ready to take the
\ninitiative on East Timor and perhaps be the first to commit
\ntroops to a United Nations-sponsored peacekeeping force.<\/p>\n
Australia has clout with Jakarta. It is the only Western
\ncountry to formally endorse Indonesian sovereignty over East
\nTimor and the only country to sign a defense pact with Jakarta.
\nChaos in East Timor would impact on Australia more than any other
\ncounty.<\/p>\n
Warns Paul Dibb, a national security specialist at the
\nAustralian National University: \"The situation that is unfolding
\nto our near north is the most important regional contingency to
\nface Australia since the end of the Vietnam war.\"<\/p>\n
But it is hard to see what Howard can tell Habibie that he
\ndoes not know already. It is not helpful to inform the president
\nthat his army is out of control or that his cabinet is in
\ndisarray.<\/p>\n
Howard is still a long way from taking action. He has rejected
\ncalls for Canberra to revoke its formal recognition of the
\nincorporation of East Timor, break off military links and cancel
\nthe Australia-Indonesia Security Agreement. And there is little
\nlikelihood of Canberra being the one to refer the East Timor
\nissue to the United Nations Security Council.<\/p>\n
But a harder line with Jakarta is expected. Just how hard
\nremains to be seen.<\/p>",
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