Assessing the Golkar presidential candidate<\/p>\n
Budiman Moerdijat, Consultant, Jakarta<\/p>\n
While all eyes are now on the sluggish process of election
\nvote counting, there is actually something else just around the
\ncorner that will be the deciding factor in forming a coalition in
\nthe run-up to the direct presidential election on July 5. That
\nsomething else is the Golkar convention.<\/p>\n
Golkar's convention is scheduled for April 20 during which
\nsome 560 delegates from the party's central board, regional
\nchapters and factions will elect the Golkar presidential
\ncandidate out of the last six men still standing.<\/p>\n
The candidates are party leader Akbar Tandjung, businessman
\nAburizal Bakrie, Coordinating Minister for the People's Welfare
\nJusuf Kalla, former Army's Special Forces Commander Prabowo
\nSubianto, media tycoon Surya Paloh and former Indonesian military
\ncommander General (ret.) Wiranto.<\/p>\n
With all signs pointing to Golkar as the winner of the April
\nlegislative election, it is safe to assume, at least
\ntheoretically, that whoever comes out of the Golkar convention
\nprocess has a good chance of becoming president.<\/p>\n
But the question is, who among these six Golkar candidates
\nwill be attractive enough to voters in July? And secondly, who
\namong these six will be politically attractive to other parties
\nto form a split ticket\/coalition?<\/p>\n
For the Golkar convention delegates, making the right decision
\non who would be the best person for the top job is extremely
\nimportant because it will have a major effect on both the party's
\nlong-term strategic interest and coalition scenarios in the run-
\nup to the presidential ballot.<\/p>\n
A good, clean, widely acceptable and democratically elected
\npresidential candidate would put out a convincing message that
\nGolkar's rank and file is genuinely committed to reform. In other
\nwords, a truly democratic convention is Golkar's only chance to
\nshow to the public the party is reforming and it could provide
\nmomentum for the party to make a political comeback.<\/p>\n
Naming a corrupt or controversial figure as presidential
\ncandidate, however, would likely cost Golkar its chance of
\nwinning the presidency -- ensuring the party lost the momentum of
\nreform.<\/p>\n
Having an unpopular presidential candidate could also limit
\nGolkar's options of forming a coalition with candidates from
\nother political parties. A strong candidate from another party
\nwill likely avoid entering into coalition with an unpopular
\nGolkar figure.<\/p>\n
For the first time in the history of Indonesian politics
\npublic acceptability will be the key success factor and in terms
\nof acceptability there is somebody out there who is already ahead
\nof everybody: Former coordinating minister for political and
\nsecurity affairs Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.<\/p>\n
Barring any further political developments and any political
\nmiscalculation on the part of Susilo, it is hard to imagine
\nwithin the next two or three months that anyone will emerge to
\neclipse Susilo's popularity, whose party -- the Democratic Party
\n(PD) -- has been doing extraordinarily well in the polls simply
\nbecause of him.<\/p>\n
There is one thing, however, that Susilo has been lacking --
\nsupport from a strong political party -- and this is where Golkar
\ncomes into the picture.<\/p>\n
Susilo understands very well that his party's gain in the
\nparliamentary election is too small for him to create a strong
\nand effective government. He fully realizes he can not do it
\nalone and there is no question one of Susilo's obvious options is
\nto ally himself with the likely winner of the parliamentary
\nelection, Golkar.<\/p>\n
Mindful of the public perception of him as a reform-minded
\ncandidate, Susilo is quick to indicate, however, his willingness
\nto ally himself with Golkar is not unconditional, saying he is
\nonly willing to ally with the "reformist" element within Golkar.<\/p>\n
Who would that person be?<\/p>\n
In the context of not losing the momentum of internal reform,
\nGolkar rank and file must make up their minds quickly who among
\nthe six candidates best meets this criteria.<\/p>\n
Let's focus on the front-runners, Akbar Tandjung and Wiranto.<\/p>\n
Since his acquittal of the corruption charges in February,
\nAkbar has been confident he is eligible to run for president.
\nMoreover, as Golkar party leader he has also been encouraged by
\nhis party's performance in the legislative election, a feat Akbar
\nwould likely take credit for.<\/p>\n
However, if we look at the polls, there has been a yawning gap
\nbetween Akbar's standing and Golkar's approval rating. According
\nto a poll conducted by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) in
\nMarch, 23.2 percent of the public supported Golkar, while only
\n8.4 percent of the public supported Akbar (the same poll
\nindicated 20.9 percent supported Susilo).<\/p>\n
What does this all mean? Is Akbar an asset or a liability to
\nthe party?<\/p>\n
As a first-rate tactician and a often-tested master of
\npolitical survival, Akbar must be well aware of this gap, so it
\nremains to be seen whether in the end he will decide to go for
\nbroke or step back and play a role as a kingmaker.<\/p>\n
What about Gen. Wiranto? It is hard for Wiranto to deny the
\nEast Timor incidents in 1999 and alleged human rights abuses will
\ncontinue to cast a shadow over him. Wiranto's excess baggage make
\nhim an easy target for Golkar's political opponents.<\/p>\n
Voting for Wiranto would also be strategically wrong for
\nGolkar because it is difficult to believe Wiranto will be able to
\ncompete against Susilo's popularity. The same situation applies
\nto Prabowo too.<\/p>\n
So, who is left? Kalla, Aburizal and Surya.<\/p>\n
There has been speculation that Susilo actually alluded to
\nKalla when he said he is willing to ally with Golkar reformist
\nelements. Some people called this pairing the Dream Team.<\/p>\n
But, the main drawback of this scheme is Kalla's public
\ndisclosure he is only aiming at the vice presidency. Will Golkar
\nrank and file still strongly support Kalla when they know Kalla's
\naim is only the No. 2 slot? It is going to be difficult to
\nconvince Golkar rank and file not to fight for the top slot when
\nthe official announcement of Golkar's likely victory in the
\nlegislative election is only a few days away.<\/p>\n
Golkar convention delegates are faced with a tough decision.
\nIf the choice is going to be between Aburizal or Surya, both men
\nhave to come under scrutiny. Between Aburizal and Surya, who has
\nfewer skeletons in the closet? It is also important to consider
\nwho among these two figures who can really lead Golkar toward
\nreal reform? This is a key factor delegates should consider when
\nselecting a candidate.<\/p>\n
The writer is currently working as consultant at Jakarta-based
\nPolitical Risk and Government Relations consulting firm Van
\nZorge, Heffernan and Associates<\/p>",
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