Asia's top security grouping reaches critical juncture: analysts<\/p>\n
Samantha Brown
\nAgence France-Presse
\nBangkok<\/p>\n
Asia's top security grouping, formed a decade ago with a mandate
\nto help maintain regional peace and stability, has reached a
\ncrossroads, say analysts who are divided over assessing its
\nprogress.<\/p>\n
The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) meets for the 10th time next
\nweek in Phnom Penh, bringing together foreign ministers from the
\nAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its security
\ndialog partners including the United States, China and the
\nEuropean Union (EU).<\/p>\n
A medley of trying international issues pepper the forum's
\nagenda this year, including terrorism, Iraq and North Korea's
\nnuclear ambitions and the recent democracy crackdown in Myanmar.<\/p>\n
Hopes have already been dashed on one front. North Korea's
\nforeign minister Paek Nam-sun pulled out after current ARF chair
\nCambodia issued a draft for the meet that included a discussion
\nof tensions on the Korean peninsula.<\/p>\n
The abrupt cancellation illustrates the difficulties faced by
\nthe ARF in bringing key issues to the table, analysts say.<\/p>\n
\"It's very bad. It's a big loss. The ARF is being used as a
\ntool by one country to manipulate other countries. Instead of
\nsolving the problem, it is becoming part of the problem,\" said
\nPanitan Wattanayakorn, an academic from Chulalongkorn University.<\/p>\n
\"What else would you like to talk about in this region?
\nThere's terrorism and North Korea... and they can't talk, let
\nalone talk about those issues.\"<\/p>\n
Prapat Thepchatree, director of the Thammasat University's
\nCenter for International Policy Studies, said the forum has moved
\ntoo slowly since its 1994 inception.<\/p>\n
Back then its creators envisioned members working on
\nconfidence-building measures before shifting toward preventive
\ndiplomacy and then setting up a conflict resolution mechanism.<\/p>\n
\"Right now we are still struggling to move from stage one to
\ntwo. After almost 10 years of existence it's still gradually
\nmoving, and most of the time is spent dealing with the so-called
\nconfidence-building measures,\" he told AFP.<\/p>\n
\"It's at a standstill and in some sense it's going backwards.\"<\/p>\n
Others however are more sanguine and argue that expectations
\nfor the forum should not be too high.<\/p>\n
\"It's still consolidating. It will take another five years
\nmaybe for ARF members to feel confident enough to discuss
\nissues,\" said Kavi Chongkittavorn, group editor of the English-
\nlanguage Nation newspaper.<\/p>\n
\"They have spent 10 years building up comfort levels... They
\nhave built up this rapport. In that sense, there's not much in
\nterms of concrete outcomes -- but I think it is still relevant,\"
\nhe said.<\/p>\n
\"It is relevant simply because it is the only regional
\nsecurity forum for Asian countries with the participation of key
\nmajor powers.\"<\/p>\n
ARF is widely recognized as the top such grouping in the
\nregion, but it may face a competitor: the two-year old Asian
\nSecurity Conference.<\/p>\n
The annual gathering, the brainchild of the London-based
\nInternational Institute for Strategic Studies, brings defense
\nrather than foreign ministers together. It last met in Singapore
\nin May.<\/p>\n
\"They are working more closely than in the ARF and have agreed
\nnot to bring itself under the ARF umbrella,\" Chulalongkorn's
\nPanitan said.<\/p>\n
\"It could give the ARF a challenge in the longer term. Defense
\nministers are more relaxed and they have more power on security
\nissues.\"<\/p>\n
The academic added that he believed the ARF progressed
\nsufficiently in its first five years but its development has
\nsince slowed to a critical point.<\/p>\n
\"It's at a very important juncture at which it could become an
\neffective institution. They have to make a strategic move to
\nfocus on what is important to them and move way from confidence-
\nbuilding measures to something much more meaningful. At the end
\nof its first decade, the ARF has a second chance.\"<\/p>\n
ASEAN groups together Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos,
\nMalaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and
\nVietnam.<\/p>\n
Other ARF members are Australia, Canada, China, the European
\nUnion, India, Japan, Mongolia, New Zealand, North Korea, South
\nKorea, Papua New Guinea, Russia and the United States.<\/p>",
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