Asia's dependence on senior leaders poses problems<\/p>\n
SINGAPORE (Reuters): The heavy dependence of some Asian
\ncountries on senior leaders rather than on government
\ninstitutions poses problems of succession, but few are likely to
\nface difficult transitions when these leaders die, analysts said
\nyesterday.<\/p>\n
The exception may be Indonesia, which has long vested great
\npower in President Soeharto, who is like \"a banyan tree, allowing
\nnothing to grow underneath\", said an academic who declined to be
\nnamed.<\/p>\n
On Tuesday, wild rumors of Soeharto's death, later denied,
\ncaused the rupiah to fall almost 11 percent to an historic low of
\n4,600 to the dollar. More rumors yesterday that security around
\nthe presidential palace had been tightened also hurt the
\ncurrency.<\/p>\n
Experts said political figures in Asia were viewed far beyond
\ntheir policy-making roles and were often considered the glue of
\nthe whole national structure.<\/p>\n
\"It's true of a lot of countries in the region because the
\nnational institutions are pretty weak -- legislature, judiciary,
\nmonetary and regulatory bodies,\" said Bruce Gale of the Hong
\nKong-based Political & Economic Risk Consultancy.<\/p>\n
\"What we tend to focus on instead are the individuals running
\nthe systems, so that our faith in the system doesn't depend so
\nmuch on the institutions,\" Gale said.<\/p>\n
That dependence is why the death of someone like Soeharto
\ncould create panic.<\/p>\n
\"People don't like uncertainty ... (Indonesian) succession is
\nunclear, nobody knows what is going to happen,\" said Neil Saker
\nof SocGen Crosby.<\/p>\n
Soeharto is expected to stay in power despite a call he made
\nto reevaluate his nomination for a seventh term in office,
\nanalysts said.<\/p>\n
The 1,000-member People's Consultative Assembly meets in March
\nfor the presidential vote, but few surprises are expected as he
\nhas retained a firm grip for more than 30 years.<\/p>\n
\"This is a very monolithic political system where power is
\nconcentrated in one man. He is a master at not showing his hand,\"
\nsaid Professor Jamie McKie at the school of Pacific and Asian
\nStudies, Australian National University.<\/p>\n
Malaysia's electoral system ensures a much smoother transition
\nwhen Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad retires, said Chia Woon
\nKhien, head of Asian research at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken.<\/p>\n
\"Malaysia has (Deputy Prime Minister) Anwar (Ibrahim) and
\npeople have grown to like him more and feel comfortable and
\nconfident in him,\" she said.<\/p>\n
Added Gale: \"The fact of the matter is that if Mahathir was to
\ndie tomorrow, there is a fairly well and widely accepted means by
\nwhich his successor will be determined.\"<\/p>\n
Others noted that as recently as September, Mahathir told
\nleaders of his United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) that
\nAnwar would succeed him.<\/p>\n
Mahathir, 71, has led UMNO, the dominant party in the National
\nFront coalition, for 16 years.<\/p>\n
Even less worry prevails for Singapore, analysts said.<\/p>\n
Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew has had two heart operations and
\nwas hospitalized this year for an acute respiratory tract
\ninfection, but the markets stayed calm.<\/p>\n
Lee, 73, premier from 1959 to 1990 and who is credited as the
\narchitect of modern Singapore, has passed the reins to Prime
\nMinister Goh Chok Tong.<\/p>\n
Lee remains a key adviser to Goh and his hand-picked cabinet,
\nbut Goh is clearly in charge. Experts believe the system, founded
\non Lee's probusiness, antiwelfare and law-and-order policies,
\nwill continue unfazed.<\/p>\n
Elsewhere, Thailand's constant changes in leadership pose some
\nconcerns, but analysts said King Bhumibol Adulyadej provides a
\nsemblance of stability.<\/p>\n
\"Thailand has a lot of respected statesmen and a king who can
\ncontrol the military if there is a takeover,\" Chia said.<\/p>",
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