'Asia's 2002 rice output may be affected by El Nino'<\/p>\n
Dow Jones, Bangkok<\/p>\n
A likely return of the drought-inducing El Nino weather
\nphenomenon this year could affect rice paddy harvests in Asia,
\nthe United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization, or FAO,
\nsaid Friday.<\/p>\n
An expected recurrence of the El Nino weather condition could
\naffect paddy output in the Philippines and Indonesia, according
\nto the FAO's latest Rice Market Monitor released in Bangkok
\nFriday.<\/p>\n
The El Nino weather, known to take place once every two to
\nseven years, last hit the Asian region during 1997-98, when it
\ncaused severe drought and serious damage to agricultural
\nproduction, particularly in Indonesia, the Philippines and Papua
\nNew Guinea, the FAO said.<\/p>\n
Based on recent observations, the national Oceanic and
\nAtmospheric Administration is considering a possible return of El
\nNino next spring, although there is still considerable
\nuncertainty over its strength and amplitude, the FAO said.<\/p>\n
Excessive rain so far in Indonesia and a recurrence of the El
\nNino \"could stand in the way of the ambitious target of 53.9
\nmillion metric tons (of paddy) set by the (Indonesian) government
\nfor 2002 against the 50.1 million tons of output in 2001,\" it
\nsaid.<\/p>\n
The 2002 paddy crop is underway in the Southern Hemisphere,
\nand the harvest season has just begun in Indonesia, the FAO said.<\/p>\n
Uncertainty from the El Nino also surrounds the 2002 paddy
\nharvest in the Philippines, where its 2001 rice production was
\naffected by Typhoon Lingling in November last year, the FAO said.<\/p>\n
Amid the uncertainty of the El Nino's effect on Asian rice
\noutput, international rice trade is forecasted to grow to 23.8
\nmillion tons, from 23.4 million tons in 2001, it said. An
\nexpected increase in international rice trade this year has
\nmainly contributed to a surge in imports by China and Indonesia,
\nthe FAO said.<\/p>\n
China is expected to import nearly 1 million tons this year
\nunder its obligation to the World Trade Organization, while
\nIndonesia is expected to step up rice imports by 50% to make up
\nfor its disappointing 2001 domestic harvest, it said.<\/p>\n
An expected slump in African rice imports in 2002 appears to
\nhave capped further growth in 2002 international rice trade.
\nAfrican rice imports are expected to fall to 6.3 million tons,
\nfrom an exceptionally high 7.1 million tons in 2001, due to large
\nstocks and an anticipated rise in international rice prices, the
\nFAO said.<\/p>\n
World rice prices are continuing to recover amid gains in
\nThailand following its government's intervention in the domestic
\npaddy market coupled with strong import demand due in part to a
\ntemporary export ban by Vietnam, it said.<\/p>\n
The Vietnamese government this month, however, lifted the ban,
\nwhich had been imposed since November last year, and allowed
\nexports from the middle of February onwards.<\/p>\n
However, the Indian government's huge rice stock of around
\n24.8 million tons would encourage subsidized export prices in the
\ncountry and put pressure on the international market, the FAO
\nsaid.<\/p>",
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