Asian growth to stay on track: UOB<\/p>\n
The growth currently under way in Asian economies is unlikely
\nto be derailed unless oil prices stay above US$40 U.S. for more
\nthan three months, a study by bank economists said on Tuesday.<\/p>\n
\"Our rough estimate is that if crude oil prices average 35
\nU.S. dollars per barrel this year versus about $30 last year,
\nAsia's growth is likely to be shaved by 0.5 and at most 1
\npercentage point,\" said the United Overseas Bank (UOB) team.<\/p>\n
The International Monetary Fund has estimated that a 10
\npercent rise in oil prices will cut Asia's growth by 0.2 of a
\npercentage point.<\/p>\n
Unless geopolitical risks escalate, the UOB analysis said oil
\nprices are expected to moderate in the $35 to $40 range.<\/p>\n
Adjusted for inflation, the study said oil prices at $40 are
\nstill only about half the levels seen during the early 1980's oil
\nshock.<\/p>\n
Asia is regarded as particularly vulnerable to an oil price
\nshock because of its reliance on imported oil and openness of its
\neconomies.<\/p>\n
The huge current account surpluses in Asia should protect
\nagainst the erosion of purchasing power, said the UOB study. The
\nstrong build-up of foreign reserves in recent years also provides
\na comfortable buffer for the trade balance.<\/p>\n
\"Barring a spike in oil prices to above $45 or a hard landing
\nin the Chinese economy,\" Asia's growth is still expected to be
\nrather strong this year, the study said. -- DPA<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/asian-growth-to-stay-on-track-uob-1447893297",
"image": ""
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"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
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