Asia-Pacific facing change<\/p>\n
By Juwono Sudarsono<\/p>\n
The following article is based on a paper presented at the
\nfirst annual conference of the Asia Pacific Center for Security
\nStudies, U.S. Pacific Command, Hawaii, Sept. 4 to 6, 1995.<\/p>\n
HONOLOLU, Hawaii, U.S.A.: What are the linkages between
\neconomic growth and military security? In what ways can the ASEAN
\nRegional Forum (ARF) complement and advance the APEC process?
\nWhat impacts do innovations in military technology have on the
\ntwo processes?<\/p>\n
Twenty years ago the cold war defined the issues in relatively
\nclear-cut terms. Analysts and policy makers talked about the
\nAmerican, Soviet and Chinese strategic triangle. Japan was the
\njunior partner in the alliance with the United States, the anchor
\nthat developed and sustained what later became known as the East
\nAsia miracle.<\/p>\n
The Asia Pacific region today contains the world's only
\nsuperpower (the United States), a state that if it so choose
\ncould readily become one (Japan), and one that by 2010 at the
\nlatest should achieve similar status (China). If things go well
\npolitically and economically, Russia will complete the strategic
\nquadrangle by 2015.<\/p>\n
For the moment, the United States remains the preeminent
\nPacific power, the only global and regional balancer. America's
\nrole is pivotal for the future course of economic growth in this
\nregion for the simple reason that it alone possesses the four
\ndimensions of military power: strategic nuclear, conventional,
\nlow intensity and information warfare capabilities.<\/p>\n
The 1991 Gulf war was salutary in that for the first time
\nadvanced sophisticated information warfare was employed to enable
\nrapid, widespread and devastating attacks on military and
\ncivilian infrastructure. The uses of computer micro-processors,
\nlogic bombs, high speed communications and sophisticated sensors
\nin conjunction with the long-prepared air-land battle strategy
\ndesigned for the inner NATO theater lifted the concept of total
\nwarfare to a higher plane.<\/p>\n
The military lessons of the Gulf War have since been
\nintensely studied in Asia and the Pacific, particularly in China.
\nAs economic growth in the region advances and the need to secure
\nenergy resources become more acute, tension levels will increase
\nthe possibility that combined strategic, conventional, low-
\nintensity and info-war strategies will be employed in conjunction
\nwith diplomatic claims and disputes over trade, investment and
\nfinancing rules.<\/p>\n
Nations which must sustain growth rates of 8 to 10 percent for
\nthe next decade must calibrate their energy needs and link that
\nstrategy with appropriate use of military technology commensurate
\nwith the region's specific characteristics.<\/p>\n
The South China and East China Seas lines of communication
\nwill be crucial for Japan's economic viability. That in turn
\nimpinges the U.S. and Japan alliance structure, which affects the
\nmilitary balance in the Korean peninsula.<\/p>\n
The fragility and sensitivity of the North Korea nuclear
\nweapon build-down through the October 1994 framework agreement
\nattests to the delicate nature of combining nuclear,
\nconventional, low intensity and info-war strategies. The Spratly
\nislands dispute is both too delicate and too intricate a subject
\nto be resolved purely through diplomatic means. Every percentage
\ngrowth rate that an Asia Pacific nation must sustain must
\nultimately affect the security and energy needs of its immediate
\nand far flung neighbors. Depending on the situation, forward
\nbased strategies through pre-positioning and selective theater
\nforces will have to be combined with a viable economic deterrence
\ncapability.<\/p>\n
In the decades ahead, that deterrence must include the uses of
\nelectromagnetic pulses, microbe and computer viruses, logic bombs
\nand advanced electronic-based psychological operations capable of
\ndismantling radar, surveillance, phone and communications
\nsystems. These technologies may be employed in tandem with
\neconomic warfare in disrupting banking and financial systems.
\nAir, sea and rail traffic and logistical systems can also be
\neffectively compromised.<\/p>\n
That is why there is urgent need for the ARF and APEC tracks
\nto converge and develop a framework of geopolitical and geo-
\neconomic confluence which matches economic and business
\ncommitments with military and technological imperatives. Despite
\nadvances in sophisticated technology, there are limits to what
\ntechnology can achieve in controlling human subjective will as
\nopposed to destroying infrastructure.<\/p>\n
For the nations involved in the APEC and ARF processes, the
\nreal challenge of meshing economic and military technological
\nchange is that localism, nationalism, regionalism and globalism
\nare advancing simultaneously across all nations and economies in
\nthe region.<\/p>\n
Dr. Juwono Sudarsono is Vice Governor of the National
\nResilience Institute, Jakarta.<\/p>",
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