Asia needs economic community<\/p>\n
Akira Kojima, The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore<\/p>\n
China and other parts of Asia are embracing possibilities for
\nfurther development and the establishment of a regional community
\nin the 21st century.<\/p>\n
However, the development process is not a straight line. There
\nare uncertainties and risks involved, so strategic cooperation
\namong Asian countries is essential.<\/p>\n
The Cold War that shaped much of the last century has ended,
\nand the victory of capitalism has been confirmed. The \"end of
\nhistory\" theory attracted people's attention at one time;
\nhowever, in reality, history is being created apace, sometimes
\nbringing turmoil and chaos.<\/p>\n
Poland became a new member of the European Union (EU) this
\nspring. Speaking before a Trilateral Commission meeting early
\nthis month, when horse chestnuts were blooming all over Warsaw,
\nPolish President Aleksander Kwasniewski proudly said: \"Welcome to
\na united Europe.\" Over a long period, the EU has grown into a
\nlarge European group made up of 25 member countries sharing a
\ncommon identity, through strong political will and a philosophy
\nbased on peace and prosperity.<\/p>\n
In Asia, in contrast, nations encompass a wide variety of
\nhistoric backgrounds, cultures, ethnic groups, and religions.
\nSuch geographic divisions resulted in a lack of common philosophy
\nand identity in Asia.<\/p>\n
However, as Asian economies have been expanding rapidly,
\nparticularly since the mid-1980s, countries have been developing
\nconsiderable mutual dependencies, naturally creating a common
\nregional identity among Asian countries.<\/p>\n
Economic development is steering attention away from a past of
\npoverty and chaos towards a future of potential prosperity in
\nwhich everyone can share. As Asian countries have shifted
\nattitudes towards future-oriented approaches, many regional
\nconflicts have eased or disappeared.<\/p>\n
Serious concerns still remain regarding the Korean Peninsula
\nbut, in general, economic development is creating views focusing
\non the future, and is nurturing a cooperative approach rather
\nthan confrontation, while improving security. An Asian-style
\nsecurity model may be forming, in sharp contrast to other regions
\nwhere nations sought peace through political processes but
\nconflicts and wars between different ethnic groups and religions
\nerupted when the Cold War ended.<\/p>\n
In Asia, regional cooperation and integration has already gone
\nbeyond the level of expectation and discussion, and is already
\ndeveloping a concrete form.<\/p>\n
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has added many
\nmembers over the years and has been transformed into a
\ncooperative body for regional development. It has forged an
\nagreement to liberalize the movement of goods, services,
\ninvestment, and capital among member countries by 2020.<\/p>\n
I met Professor Richard Cooper of Harvard University at the
\nWarsaw conference. \"It is difficult to establish an Asian union
\nwithin the next 10 years,\" he said, but added that \"anything is
\npossible in 20 to 25 years\".<\/p>\n
The next 10 to 20 years of global history will feature
\naccelerating change. Mohamed Noordin Sopiee, chairman and chief
\nexecutive officer of the Institute of Strategic and International
\nStudies Malaysia, said a union of East Asian countries will
\nfeature quick progress, as opposed to the slow pace of EU
\nintegration.<\/p>\n
He focuses on the fact that economic integration is increasing
\nwith free trade agreements.<\/p>\n
China's surging growth is dominating recent international
\neconomic discussion, but the country has been a great power for
\nmany centuries in its long history.<\/p>\n
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development says
\nChina accounted for an overwhelming 29 percent of combined global
\ngross domestic product (GDP) in 1820. India was in second place
\nwith 16 percent, France was third with 5.4 percent, and the
\nUnited States was in ninth place with a mere 1.8 percent.<\/p>\n
To recover its \"two lost centuries\", China released a plan to
\nquadruple GDP by 2020. A fourth generation of increasingly
\nunorthodox senior Communist Party officials are seeking to retain
\nlegitimacy by realizing economic development, and have
\naccelerated the speed of reform and the opening of the nation to
\nthe world. Since sustained inward investment and secure export
\nmarkets are critical issues, China's foreign policy will probably
\nremain friendly to all for some time.<\/p>\n
The arrival of a new great power tends to strain international
\norder. However, it is important to smoothly integrate China into
\nthe global economy and political order. In addition, there is
\ngreat potential for the development of Asia, including China, but
\nit is not a straight path. Other countries need not be threatened
\nby China's advancement.<\/p>\n
Instead, Japan and the international society need to realize
\nthat cooperation for controlling regional uncertainties and
\ncritical situations is the way to establish an Asian-style
\ndevelopment model and security in the 21st century.<\/p>\n
The writer is chairman of the Japan Centre for Economic
\nResearch. This paper is prepared for the Nihon Keizai Shimbun
\nInternational Conference on the Future of Asia, to be held in
\nTokyo on June 3. The Straits Times is the conference's Singapore
\nmedia partner.<\/p>",
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