Asia at a crossroad: Where is it going?<\/p>\n
By Gwynne Dyer<\/p>\n
LONDON (JP): The 'post-colonial era' in Asia is over. What's
\nnot clear yet is where Asia goes from here: into a bloody rerun
\nof 20th-century European history, or straight into a peaceful and
\ndemocratic 21st century.<\/p>\n
Soeharto's fall guarantees the democratization of Indonesia,
\nwhich means that soon every one of the former Asian 'tigers' will
\nbe a democracy. India's nuclear weapons tests have not yet been
\nechoed by Pakistan, but the nuclearization of the wider alliance
\nstructure on the Asian mainland is now almost complete. Two bold
\nsignposts for Asia's future -- but pointing in opposite
\ndirections.<\/p>\n
The nightmare scenario is easier to sketch, because we have
\nanalogies from Europe's past. When a fascist party comes to power
\nin India on a minority of votes, the parallel with Germany in
\n1933 is hard to ignore. When that new Indian government promptly
\nstarts blowing off nuclear weapons, justifying it by the alleged
\nthreat from its neighbors, the sense of deja vu is overwhelming.<\/p>\n
Speaking to India Today magazine, India's exultant Prime
\nMinister Atal Behari Vajpayee could not stop boasting: \"India now
\nhas a big bomb and is a nuclear weapons state. We will not
\nhesitate to use the bomb in self-defense...There is no question
\nof India signing the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty....The
\nbomb is not intended for peaceful purposes. Celebrations are
\nbeing organized up and down the country.\"<\/p>\n
Does he not know that the rest of the world can hear him too,
\nor does he just not care? Couldn't he at least have said that
\nIndia will only use nuclear weapons if others use them first?<\/p>\n
\"We will not hesitate to use the bomb in self-defense\" is a
\nmuch broader formulation. In fact, since every country always
\nsees all of its own wars as acts of 'self-defense' (have you ever
\nheard anybody declare that they are waging a war of naked
\naggression?), Vajpayee's statement is tantamount to saying that
\nIndia will use nuclear weapons whenever it fights. And it has
\nfought both Pakistan and China in the past (though never yet both
\nat the same time).<\/p>\n
India was alarmed recently by Pakistan's testing of a new
\n1,500-km. (1,000-mi.) nuclear-capable missile -- but India itself
\nhas already tested a comparable missile. New Delhi has also been
\nannoyed by the persistent infiltration of Pakistani-trained
\ninsurgents into Indian-controlled Kashmir, but that's not why
\nIndia went nuclear either.<\/p>\n
Vajpayee's government freely admits that it would have carried
\nout the tests during its brief stint in power two years ago, if
\nit had only had enough time. He leads a movement that sees
\nenemies everywhere, that thrives politically on confrontation
\nwith foreign devils -- and that might drag mainland Asia into a
\nnuclear war.<\/p>\n
China has long had a loose alliance with Pakistan, since both
\ncountries have territorial disputes with India. Russia, with its
\nown border dispute with China, had a loose alliance with India on
\nthe principle that 'the enemy of my friend is my friend'. These
\nfour countries are home to almost half of the human race -- and
\nif they all end up with nuclear weapons, it's much more dangerous
\nthan when only China and Russia had them.<\/p>\n
The other great power in the Asian alliance system, Russia,
\ndemocratized seven years ago, and as a result it's trying very
\nhard to extract itself from the system. All but one of Russia's
\nborder disputes with China are settled, and its relationship with
\nBeijing has improved enormously.<\/p>\n
China is showing no interest in being immolated as a by-
\nproduct of an Indo-Pakistani war either. \"We realize that nuclear
\nproliferation is a great danger,\" says Shen Jiru, author of a
\nbook called China Won't Become Mr. No that is the new standard
\ntext on international affairs for the reform wing of China's
\nruling Communist Party. \"This (Indian nuclear test) is an
\nopportunity for us to show the world that we are a responsible
\npower.\"<\/p>\n
These same reformers could, in a few years, lead the process
\nof democratization in China. If the old Soviet Union could do it,
\nif South Korea and Taiwan and now Indonesia can do it in Asia, if
\nChinese students have already tried it once on Tienanmen Square,
\nthen democracy is certainly not something unimaginable in China.
\nAnd it could even come from inside the Party: most of the leaders
\nof the drive to democratize Russia were former Communists.<\/p>\n
But so what? India has been democratic for fifty years, and
\nyet it elects a fascist government that immediately goes nuclear.
\nThis is a strategic lunacy that endangers the country's future,
\nby nuclearizing a confrontation in which India previously enjoyed
\na crushing superiority over Pakistan in conventional weapons.
\nDemocracy didn't prevent that sort of irrationality in India.<\/p>\n
No, but it does make it less likely elsewhere. History offers
\nfew examples of democratic countries going to war with each
\nother.<\/p>\n
Democracy in Russia, and the prospect of democratization in
\nChina, mean that any nuclear war in Asia is likely to be confined
\nto the Indian subcontinent. And democracy in India leaves open
\nthe possibility (at least for a while) that Indians can
\ndemocratically remove the people who are leading them straight
\ntowards hell.<\/p>",
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