ASEAN's task at hand<\/p>\n
Bantarto Bandoro, Editor, 'The Indonesian Quarterly',
\nCentre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta,
\nbandoro@csis.or.id<\/p>\n
To the world's dismay and horror, 15 days later after India
\ntested its nuclear weapons on May 13, 1998, Pakistan tested their
\nown. Now the two are head to head again over Kashmir. India and
\nPakistan have fought three wars over Kashmir, and a deadly attack
\non India's Parliament last December sparked a military buildup
\nleading to fears of a fourth major conflict between rivals. Other
\nparts of the regions will also be implicated.<\/p>\n
India and Pakistan have reportedly toned down their warlike
\nrhetoric. But cross-border shelling persisted. The situation may
\nworsen if the two countries really pursue their strategic
\nambitions. The deep hostility between India and Pakistan has
\nshaped the two countries images about each other.<\/p>\n
After President George Bush announced the war on terror in the
\nwake of Sept. 11, India hoped Pakistan would withdraw its support
\nfor Pakistan-based militants. But it later found that the latter
\nhad continued to back Pakistan-based insurgents -- leading to a
\nseries of bellicose statements from India's Prime Minister Attar
\nB. Vajpayee. A physical and real war is usually preceeded by a
\nwar of statements.<\/p>\n
The clear and present danger is that the rulers of India and
\nPakistan are unconcerned of their nuclear capabilities that could
\noverwhelmed each other's population and economy. According to one
\nanalysis, if war breaks out, it will be a limited one. Yet even
\nthis has already caused international concern given the nuclear
\narsenals in both countries.<\/p>\n
Pakistan, who has fewer conventional forces than India, has
\nalways reserved the right to use nuclear weapons first. Even if
\nanything is restricted to Kashmir, India and Pakistan may feel
\nthe need to disperse their nuclear wepons to ensure that their
\nnuclear capability could not be destroyed in any surprise
\nattacks. Each of them feel that nuclear weaponry is a viable way
\nto ensure their security.<\/p>\n
A serious international effort to help ease the tension is
\nperhaps imperative.International leaders have begun urging a
\npeaceful resolution. The U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald
\nRumsfeld is scheduled to visit the subcontinent this week. The
\nvisit is aimed at seeking a pledge from both sides, that both
\nwill not even think of moving their nuclear assets.<\/p>\n
He must realize, however, that he will be dealing with the
\ncountries who have the age-long and unfinished business of
\nKashmir. The United States must be careful not to impose peace
\nonly to one party in the conflict. This would only raise
\nsuspicions that the U.S. is trying to impose its own strategic
\npreferences. Unless the core issue is touched, anything achieved
\nwill be no more than a temporary and highly fragile peace.<\/p>\n
The tension in the subcontinent and its security and political
\nimplication may go well beyond the region. The U.S.-led coalition
\nagainst terrorism will be significantly affected for several
\nreasons:<\/p>\n
1. Pakistan's conflict with India will complicate its
\nrelationship with the U.S. due to suspicions that the U.S. might
\nimpose peace more on Islamabad than on New Dehli. Pakistan might
\ntehn withdraw support for the coalition. This in a sense is also
\na security problem for the coalition;<\/p>\n
2. Some suspect that the diplomatic moves of the U.S. in the
\nsubcontinent only aims to meet its avowed objective to contain
\nChina. Were this a real American interest, the coalition against
\nterrorism will be counterproductive as this would only provoke
\nChina to strengthen its already strong strategic position in the
\nsubcontinent and draw China and Pakistan closer. This would
\ncertainly alter the strategic balance in the subcontinent.<\/p>\n
The tension between India and Pakistan is also a security
\nproblem for Southeast Asia and ASEAN. India has enjoyed its
\nposition in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) since three years ago.
\nIt is precisely because of this that the ARF cannot avoid
\ndiscussing security issues which directly involves its member.
\nThe Forum will certainly not deal in depth the core issue in
\nIndia-Pakistan conflict.<\/p>\n
But the likely involvement of nuclear weapons in the conflict
\nand its security implication will at least strengthen ASEAN's
\ncommitment to its own version of a nuclear free zone treaty.<\/p>\n
There is not much ASEAN can do to halt the possibility of a
\nwar between India and Pakistan. But ASEAN can at least utilize
\nthe coming November summit between ASEAN and India to discuss the
\nissue if it persists. Vajpayee once said that Southeast Asia was
\none of the focal points of India's foreign policy and strategic
\nconcerns.<\/p>\n
Hence ASEAN must be able to convince India that the latter's
\nrelations with ASEAN should not be sacrificed only because of its
\nhigher priority to the conflict with Pakistan. With regard to
\nSoutheast Asia, the continuing tension between India and Pakistan
\nare destabilizing in two respects.<\/p>\n
First, the security of Southeast Asia and ASEAN, in the longer
\nterm, will still be as vulnerable to a nuclear threat as it is to
\na non-conventional threat. Second, ASEAN must face the prospect
\nof a breaking down of a non-proliferation regime in the region;
\nmeaning that it will be a barrier for building regional security.
\nIn its annual meeting this July ASEAN's task is to prevent an
\narmed conflict between India and Pakistan, and to get the process
\nof settling this difficult problem back to a political path.<\/p>\n
It is in the interest of all members of the international
\ncommunity to prevent and eliminate the negative consequences of
\nthe continuing conflict. And the development of nuclear weapons
\nin both countries in India and Pakistan may not have been in the
\nbest interest of the two nations, but both nations have developed
\ntheir arsenals in response to a perceived security threat. ASEAN
\ntherefore should be part of the international efforts to help
\nease the tension. Security after all is the main concern of all
\nmembers in South and Southeast Asia.<\/p>",
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