ASEAN's future is at stake<\/p>\n
By Jusuf Wanandi<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): At the same time that the Association of
\nSoutheast Asian Nations (ASEAN) foreign ministers met at the end
\nof last month in Bangkok, 10 experts from the original five
\nmembers had a two-day meeting to discuss its long term future.
\nWhat follows are some of the thoughts expressed during the
\ndiscussions.<\/p>\n
ASEAN was created 33 years ago to jointly deal with the
\nuncertain aftermath of the Vietnam War and to provide a forum for
\ninter-regional cooperation and the prevention of possible inter-
\nregional conflicts in the future.<\/p>\n
Thus, ASEAN has been a state-to-state cooperation par
\nexcellence, with no intentions to achieve integration and become
\na community. That is also why the principle of non-intervention
\nhas been sacrosanct and explains why foreign ministers have a
\ndominant role in ASEAN.<\/p>\n
While the stated purpose of the Association is to promote
\neconomic and social cooperation, for many years ASEAN did not
\ndevelop any of those ideas. Instead, diplomacy was supreme. It
\nwas very much a top down exercise and the public had only a
\nmarginal role.<\/p>\n
In a sense, ASEAN has achieved the basic objectives of its
\ncreation. There have been no major conflicts among ASEAN members,
\nand since the Vietnam War, stability and peace have reigned. This
\nwas partly due to ASEAN's efforts to prevent the often predicted
\nBalkanization of Southeast Asia. Indeed, this is no small
\nachievement!<\/p>\n
But what about the future? In the last 30 years there have
\nbeen a lot of changes. There have been significant internal
\nchanges within the countries and external global and regional
\nchanges, particularly in the last decade, have created extreme
\nand dramatic pressures for ASEAN as a whole and for each of its
\nmembers.<\/p>\n
The greatest impact on ASEAN has been the pressures resulting
\nfrom globalization. Its influence is all encompassing as the
\nfinancial crisis in East Asia has shown since 1997 and members
\ncannot adjust to these external pressures by themselves. Even
\ndeveloped nations cannot cope with the changes on their own. That
\nmay also be the reason why European Union members are expanding
\ntheir cooperation.<\/p>\n
The second global event affecting ASEAN was the end of the
\ncold war. That has altered the security and stability of the
\nregion and has opened new horizons in strategic developments. It
\nalso has put pressure on existing mechanisms and institutions to
\nadjust and to change or risk the possibility of perishing.<\/p>\n
Thus the big question is whether ASEAN can adjust and change
\nin the medium term and cope with those dramatic changes.<\/p>\n
It will not be easy and it seems almost impossible for ASEAN
\nto change so fundamentally given the constraints that it is now
\nfacing. Because of the financial crisis ASEAN members tend to be
\ninward looking. In addition, because of leadership changes in
\nsome of the old members, personal relations are no longer so
\ncritical for ASEAN cooperation as in the past. New members have
\nbrought difficulties of all sorts because of a difference in
\nexperiences, political systems and economic developments.<\/p>\n
Basically the old principles on which ASEAN has functioned for
\nthe last 30 years, namely a personal, non-legalistic and informal
\nsystem of cooperation between the states or their bureaucracies
\nare no longer adequate to cope with fundamental changes in ASEAN
\nand in each of its member countries.<\/p>\n
Domestic problems such as the financial crisis, drug-
\ntrafficking, environmental hazards, migration problems,
\ntransnational crimes (e.g. piracy etc.) are also regional
\nproblems. They call for regional and in some instances even
\nglobal cooperation. The new challenges no longer recognize the
\ndivide between domestic and external aspects. Therefore, ASEAN as
\na regional entity could be even more relevant if it could get its
\nact together and change in a fundamental way.<\/p>\n
To achieve that would require ASEAN members to have a common
\nvision of the future. ASEAN heads agreed on the ASEAN Vision 2020
\nalmost three years ago in Hanoi. However, ASEAN members also need
\nto develop new principles of cooperation.<\/p>\n
Based on those principles, rules have to be established to
\nguide the organization and to make the cooperation viable. Those
\nrules have to take into consideration that the many problems
\nASEAN is facing can not be solved individually.<\/p>\n
Therefore, the principle of \"non-intervention\" is passe. As a
\nlast resort, \"intervention\" could be done in a more acceptable
\nway. Examples where beneficial intervention might have worked in
\npast experiences in ASEAN are surveillance of macro-economic
\nindicators, the haze problem, and some policies on migration,
\ndrug-trafficking and transnational crime.<\/p>\n
For the implementation of the rules, institutions have to be
\nestablished. The heads should meet annually and empower this
\nmeeting as the highest decision making body. A council of
\nministers also has to be formed with the task of deciding on
\nprograms and directives. The dominant role of the foreign
\nminister in ASEAN is no longer relevant. ASEAN problems have
\nbecome all encompassing and complex, and other ministers have to
\nget involved in working out answers.<\/p>\n
The office of the Secretariat General has to be strengthened
\nand prepared for all the decisions that the council of ministers
\nand heads of ASEAN have to make. The workload of the existing
\nrotating Senior Officials Meetings has to be replaced by the
\nSecretariat with very few exceptions.<\/p>\n
Last but not least the public, think-tanks, non-government
\norganizations and society at large who have a stake in the
\ncooperation should have their say and should be allowed in some
\ninstances to take the initiatives towards ASEAN functional
\ncooperation.<\/p>\n
Can these changes be implemented? Many wise men and visionary
\ngroups have proposed modest institutional changes and failed. But
\nthe future will be different, and the challenges are huge and
\ncomplex. If ASEAN fails to change, then ASEAN will become
\nirrelevant to its members and will wither away.<\/p>\n
Those changes could be implemented over a medium term. In the
\nmeantime two priorities have to be accepted. First is the total
\nengagement of the older members with the new members of ASEAN
\nthat will also involve providing development assistance by the
\nold members to the new ones. This could be done in a triangular
\nway with financial assistance from international\/financial
\ninstitutions or from Japan. Only then can the new members
\nparticipate fully in ASEAN's programs. This is critically
\nimportant if ASEAN would like to stay united.<\/p>\n
Second, the principle of the \"coalition of the willing\" or the
\ndecision of ASEAN minus X should be introduced. As such, some
\nmembers can develop a program without the participation of others
\nat the beginning. But it should be open to them whenever they are
\nready to participate.<\/p>\n
To be able to get those changes moving, the civil societies in
\nASEAN have to participate fully in the effort and should pressure
\ntheir governments by arousing public opinion and initiate
\nprograms in respective countries. At the functional and
\nprofessional levels there is ample cooperation going on among
\nASEAN societies.<\/p>\n
Hopefully the ASEAN People's Assembly (APA) to be held for the
\nfirst time in November in Batam, in conjunction with the Informal
\nSummit in Singapore, could push for these changes that are of
\nvital importance for ASEAN's survival. APA is initiated by ASEAN
\nand the Institute of Strategic and International Studies, an
\nASEAN non-governmental organization. The Assembly is expected to
\nbring together over 300 NGO and civil society representatives as
\nwell as governments.<\/p>\n
The writer is chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Centre
\nfor Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta.<\/p>",
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