ASEAN should expand the ARF<\/p>\n
By A.K.P. Mochtan<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): As if eluding the prevailing trend toward
\nmultilateralism in the Asia-Pacific region, trilateral ties
\nremain dominant and critical to strategic and security equations
\nin Northeast Asia. As testified by the visit of Japan's Premier
\nRyutaro Hashimoto to Beijing last week, balance and stability in
\nNortheast Asia precariously depend on the trilateral relations
\ninvolving China, Japan and the US.<\/p>\n
Such a pattern of relations brings several important
\nrepercussions to Southeast Asia, especially ASEAN. First, on the
\nconceptualization and implementation of cooperative security in
\nthe Asia-Pacific region, particularly the one being purported by
\nthe ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum). Second, as ASEAN insists, on the
\neffort to assert ASEAN leadership in the ARF process and
\nactivities, namely through the application of the ASEAN-
\nexperience and the ASEAN-way.<\/p>\n
The main question is whether an ASEAN-driven ARF is
\nappropriate and if it is able to contribute to the promotion of
\nsecurity cooperation in Northeast Asia. Of particular importance
\nis whether the ARF can actually facilitate confidence building
\nmeasures in that crucially important corner of the Asia-Pacific
\nregion.<\/p>\n
This is certainly a formidable challenge. In the first place,
\nthe triangular relations among China, Japan and the US are highly
\ndynamic, and, unfortunately, rarely smooth or harmonious.
\nDistrust and suspicion vis-a-vis each others security and
\nstrategic intentions linger on, deeply permeated into their
\nrespective mind sets. This is illustrated by Beijing's harsh
\nreaction toward the interim report on the new guidelines of
\nJapan-US Defense Cooperation last June. The deep seated distrust
\noften leads to a "reject first" attitude to practically all new
\ninitiatives.<\/p>\n
Second, a regional consultative arrangement for the area is
\nconspicuously missing. Unlike Southeast Asia, the Northeast Asian
\nregion lacks a dialogue and consultation mechanism, especially
\none that is inclusive and aims at discussing strategic and
\nsecurity issues. New initiatives therefore typically start at the
\nbilateral level, and not uncommonly, unilateral.<\/p>\n
Third, the problems and issues of the Northeast Asian region
\nare complex. Most of them are also irrelevant to Southeast Asia.
\nThis means ASEAN members tend to be indifferent toward the
\nproblems and issues in Northeast Asia.<\/p>\n
Finally, there is the question whether ASEAN has sufficient
\nclout to expand its influence over Northeast Asia.<\/p>\n
In sum, the character of the problems and issues in Northeast
\nAsia -- and hence the approach and arrangements to resolve them
\n-- are distinctly different from the ones in Southeast Asia.
\nBecause of this, the prospect for a substantive and pro-active
\ninvolvement by an ASEAN-led ARF in Northeast Asia appears
\ndistant, even futile.<\/p>\n
These are not reasons for ASEAN to turn away from the problems
\nand issues that confront Northeast Asia, however. The situation
\nin Northeast Asia in fact provides a great opportunity to improve
\nand strengthen the ARF's mechanism and effectiveness, namely
\nthrough the introduction of new approaches, and if necessary, the
\nadoption of new principles and visions that would enrich and
\nempower cooperative security and conflict resolution mechanisms
\nin the Asia-Pacific.<\/p>\n
Toward that end, ASEAN may have to adopt a different attitude
\nvis-a-vis Northeast Asia. This would entail inclusion of new
\nprinciples of action, which may include the following:<\/p>\n
First, establish more regular and frank dialogue between
\nSoutheast and Northeast Asia, including among the Heads of State.
\nThis in essence is expanding the ASEAN-led Southeast Asian summit
\nto include leaders from Northeast Asia, particularly China, Japan
\nand South Korea. The strength of this forum is its deliberateness
\nand regularity, it is not merely by chance or proxy such as ALEM
\nor ASEM fora.<\/p>\n
Second, facilitate transparency between Southeast and
\nNortheast Asia, particularly over security and strategic matters.
\nASEAN could expand its Special SOM (which includes defense
\nofficials) to include defense representatives from China, Japan
\nand South and North Korea. The expanded special SOM could start
\nsimply as a socialization forum, with no preconceived structure,
\nagenda and outcome. As it proceeds, it will be able to increase
\nunderstanding over "Asian problems", as perceived and felt by
\nother fellow Asians. This understanding over the Asian problem
\nwould hopefully lead to a new "Asian initiative" to resolve or
\nminimize it.<\/p>\n
Finally, expand ASEAN's concerns and interests to Northeast
\nAsia by adopting sustained and deliberate engagement toward the
\nproblems and issues that confront the region. This should be done
\nformally through the ARF, which provides the distinct advantage
\nof including other major players, notably the U.S. In this
\ncontext, ASEAN may have to be flexible in implementing its self-
\nimposed ideal of asserting "ASEAN-centeredness" and acknowledge
\nthe potential constructive roles and contributions that may be
\noffered by the U.S. or other ARF members. In other words, ASEAN
\nshould be more active in soliciting the major powers' security
\nand strategic interests in Northeast Asia and be able to
\ntranslate and incorporate them into the ARF's activities and
\nprocesses.<\/p>\n
The ARF's -- especially ASEAN's -- attempt to address the
\nproblems and issues in Northeast Asia will predictably be
\ndifficult. For this purpose, there is no other choice but to
\nembrace it with determination, broad-mindedness and flexibility.
\nWithout these, or if ASEAN chooses to bury its head in the sand,
\nthe ARF will most probably loose its credibility and the Asia-
\nPacific region will perpetually be plagued by insecurity and
\ninstability.<\/p>\n
The writer is a political analyst at the Center for Strategic
\nand International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta.<\/p>",
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