ASEAN needs East Asian regionalism<\/p>\n
By Eric Teo<\/p>\n
SINGAPORE (JP): The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is
\nclearly at a crossroads. Its foreign ministers met in Bangkok at
\nthe end of July for its 33rd annual meeting. This was followed by
\nthe ASEAN+3 Foreign Ministers' Meeting, bringing together the 10
\nASEAN countries, together with China, Japan and South Korea and
\nthe ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). The ASEAN-10 clearly took stock.<\/p>\n
The region is currently facing domestic tensions in most of
\nits member-countries, notwithstanding the internal discord among
\nthemselves and the mounting external pressure from outside
\nSoutheast Asia.<\/p>\n
For example, Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid has been
\nopenly challenged by legislators, hostile party leaders,
\ndisruptive elements in the Army, some Muslim circles, separatists
\nrebel representatives, student leaders and trade unionists during
\nthe recent session of the People's Consultative Assembly.<\/p>\n
Thailand's Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai faces an uncertain
\nfuture as his coalition is fast losing ground and is not certain
\nof being returned to power in the next elections, scheduled
\nbefore the end of this year.<\/p>\n
Vietnam is in a state of semi-paralysis, as its leadership
\nprepares for the next Party Congress next year. Thus major
\neconomic decisions would not be taken while waiting for the
\nupcoming leadership consolidation.<\/p>\n
Domestically, the Philippines, Loas and Malaysia seem to have
\nalso deteriorated. Bombs have recently gone off in both Manila
\nand Vientiane. The Muslim separatist movement in Southern
\nPhilippines has once again highlighted the religious tensions in
\nthe country and has put a serious damper on its economic
\ndevelopment.<\/p>\n
Laos has blamed the Hmong resistance for trying to create
\nunrest in the country and has even cast a suspicious eye at
\nThailand. Malaysia's recent tribulations with the Al Ma'unah cult
\nhas brought into focus again the discontentment of its Muslim
\nMalay majority vis-a-vis the Mahathir government which is losing
\nits grip over the Malay electorate in this country.<\/p>\n
Brunei is witnessing an unprecedented trial against a member
\nof its royal family for fraud and embezzlement, a truly
\ntraumatizing experience for this rich sultanate.<\/p>\n
Economically, ASEAN, which is recovering from the Asian
\neconomic crisis, is clearly not out of the woods. Furthermore,
\nwith the current political and social uncertainties and tensions,
\nits economic woes could be further compounded if foreign
\ninvestments are less forthcoming.<\/p>\n
Indonesia's monetary woes would not necessarily plunge
\nSoutheast Asia into another bout of financial crisis, as in 1997,
\nbut Indonesia's financial weakness and the dismal state of its
\neconomy will definitely dampen prospects for a sustainable
\nrecovery in the region.<\/p>\n
In fact, many investors have already fled Indonesia, Vietnam
\nand the Philippines, as the ASEAN region expects a major slow-
\ndown in foreign direct investments. This is while other regions
\nof the world, such as Latin America, Europe and even Northeast
\nAsia (China, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan) siphon off foreign
\ndirect investments to the detriment of ASEAN.<\/p>\n
ASEAN, as an institution, has also laid bare its fundamental
\nweaknesses just before and during the Asian financial crisis. No
\nearly warning or coordinating mechanism existed or had
\nfunctioned. ASEAN leadership was conspicuously absent during the
\ncrisis. Each ASEAN country fought for its own economic survival.<\/p>\n
With the expansion of ASEAN to 10 members, the institution is
\nclearly facing growing impotency in dealing with and coordinating
\nthe diverse political, economic and social models, wealth being
\nconcentrated in its two smallest member-countries while its three
\nbiggest states are badly fractured owing to domestic
\nuncertainties. ASEAN must change and adapt quickly, otherwise, it
\nmay become totally ineffective, irrelevant and a mere \"sunset
\norganization\".<\/p>\n
In contrast, Northeast Asia is in a more upbeat mood,
\nfollowing the successful Korean Summit from June 13 to June 15.<\/p>\n
There are increasing signs of rapprochement among the four
\ncountries in this region, although Taiwan and the Theater Missile
\nDefense issue may still create serious tensions here. The two
\nKoreas reached a historic entente in Pyongyang which was followed
\nby an emotional first mass reunification of \"divided\" families on
\nAug. 15, against a highly significant backdrop of rapprochement
\nbetween the two countries.<\/p>\n
Seoul and Tokyo are now negotiating a free trade agreement and
\nwill cohost the next World Cup together in 2002. Japan had
\nenormously helped South Korea during the Asian financial meltdown
\nand the latter has lifted cultural restrictions on Japanese
\nfilms, video games and pop music recently.<\/p>\n
Seoul has already moved closer to Beijing in preparing for the
\nlandmark Korean Summit, with China emerging as the paramount
\nintermediary between Seoul and Pyongyang.<\/p>\n
Although Japan-China relations are still plagued with the
\nscars of World War II and mutual suspicion of each other's
\nleadership role in the region, Sino-Japanese rapprochement has
\ntaken place partly stemming from the Asian financial crisis which
\nbrought to focus their mutual vulnerabilities and the \"over-
\naggressive\" American foreign policy in Asia.<\/p>\n
For example, China has acknowledged Japan's unflagging support
\nfor its entry into the World Trade Organization and Japan is
\nthankful for full Chinese backing to its \"regional currency swap
\nmechanism\", which was adopted in Chiangmai last April. There is
\ntherefore a sense of an emerging regionalism in this part of
\nAsia.<\/p>\n
To this end, ASEAN, while is painfully recognizing its own
\ninstitutional and geopolitical weakness, has acknowledged the
\nfact that the East Asian region could be much stronger and
\ninfluential in world affairs if the three major Asian powers up
\nnorth are eventually brought into the regional picture.<\/p>\n
Thus some 10 years after the failed Mahathir-inspired East
\nAsian Economic Caucus, the ASEAN+3 concept is now making headway,
\nvery much championed and encouraged by ASEAN.<\/p>\n
In fact, ASEAN leaders and their counterparts from China,
\nJapan and South Korea now meet after the annual ASEAN summits and
\ntheir foreign ministers consult after the annual ASEAN
\nministerial meetings. Furthermore the ASEAN+3 finance ministers
\nhave met in Chiangmai, Thailand, and their economic ministers
\nhave met in Yangon, Myanmar, as if to send a clear signal of
\ndefiance to the West.<\/p>\n
ASEAN's future consolidation and success may now depend on
\nrapprochement and enhanced cooperation with Northeast Asia. ASEAN
\nclearly needs a new impetus, which may ultimately come from
\nNortheast Asia. The ASEAN+3 countries should thus consolidate
\nfurther as an East Asian regionalism and perhaps even a new Asian
\nentity encompassing both Northeast and Southeast Asia could
\nemerge in the future!<\/p>\n
The writer is council secretary of the Singapore Institute of
\nInternational Affairs.<\/p>",
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