E-commerce once promised a simple equation: the easier it is for the\npublic to shop, the wider the opportunity for anyone to sell. The era of\nmassive discounts, free shipping, cashback, and aggressive platform\nexpansion drove extraordinary growth in digital trade.<\/p>\n
However, entering 2026, that equation is becoming increasingly\ncomplex. Consumers are becoming more price-sensitive, while merchants\nface competition, platform fees, promotions, advertising, logistics, and\ntaxation obligations. Amidst these changes, e-commerce faces its next\ntest: can digital growth continue to generate healthy economic value for\nconsumers, merchants, platforms, and the state?<\/p>\n
This does not mean Indonesia\u2019s e-commerce is in decline. The e-Conomy\nSEA 2025 report by Google, Temasek, and Bain estimates Indonesia\u2019s\ndigital economy will approach US$100 billion in Gross Merchandise Value\n(GMV) by 2025, with e-commerce accounting for approximately US$71\nbillion.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, other estimates suggest a need for a more critical\nreading of aggregate figures. Momentum Works, using a different\nmethodology and scope, noted that Southeast Asian e-commerce GMV grew by\n22.8 per cent to US$157.6 billion in 2025. While Thailand and Malaysia\nsurged by 51.8 per cent and 47.6 per cent respectively, Indonesia,\ndespite remaining the largest market, grew by only 2.2 per cent to\nUS$57.7 billion.<\/p>\n
These differing estimates serve as a reminder that the health of\ne-commerce cannot be judged by a single figure. The strategic question\nhas shifted: it is no longer about how much transaction volume grows,\nbut rather who derives value from that growth and how sustainable that\nvalue creation is.<\/p>\n
Large GMV, but whose margin?<\/p>\n
GMV is important for understanding market scale. However, GMV is not\nGDP, nor is it a merchant\u2019s net income. The one hundred thousand rupiah\npaid by a consumer does not all go into the merchant\u2019s pocket.<\/p>\n
Between the selling price and net receipts lie the cost of goods\nsold, platform service fees or commissions, promotions, advertising,\nlogistics, returns, and taxes. This is where what can be called the\n\u2018Merchant Margin Squeeze\u2019 emerges: traders are squeezed between\nprice-sensitive consumers on one side and rising costs of selling on the\nother.<\/p>\n
From the consumer perspective, the room to raise prices is narrowing.\nThe Consumer Confidence Index fell from 120.9 in May to 117.8 in June\n2026. While the figure still shows optimism, the decline signals\nincreasing household caution. Consumers do not necessarily stop\nshopping; they become more diligent in comparing prices, switching\nbrands, seeking promotions, or delaying purchases. This is one facet of\nthe \u2018middle-class squeeze\u2019.<\/p>\n
From the merchant perspective, the cost of selling is no longer just\nabout the cost of goods and shipping. Merchants must manage platform\nservice fees, promotional programmes, advertising to gain visibility,\nreturns, and various additional services.<\/p>\n
The structure and magnitude of these costs vary by platform, product\ncategory, and the specific programmes joined. Therefore, the issue is\nnot whether a marketplace is \u2018expensive\u2019 or \u2018cheap\u2019, but rather the\ntotal cost required to generate a single profitable transaction.<\/p>\n
These pressures are now meeting changes in taxation mechanisms. Since\n1 August 2026, Blibli, Shopee, Tokopedia, and Lazada have begun\ncollecting Article 22 Income Tax (PPh Pasal 22) at a rate of 0.5 per\ncent of a merchant\u2019s gross turnover, in accordance with PMK 37\/2025.<\/p>\n
It is important to underline that this is not a new tax, but rather a\nchange in the collection mechanism to simplify administration and create\na level playing field with conventional trade. Individual merchants with\nan annual turnover of up to Rp500 million are still not subject to\ncollection, provided they meet the turnover declaration\nrequirements.<\/p>\n
However, from the perspective of merchant economics, the direct\ncollection of tax makes the reduction in revenue more visible. A 0.5 per\ncent rate may seem small, but it is based on gross turnover, not\nprofit.<\/p>\n
For merchants with thin margins, the accumulation of platform fees,\npromotions, advertising, logistics, returns, and taxes can widen the gap\nbetween turnover and profit. This is the paradox of modern e-commerce:\ntransactions can increase even as merchant profitability is under\npressure.<\/p>\n
A warning from China<\/p>\n
China provides a warning signal. In the first half of 2026, the\ncountry\u2019s retail sales grew by only 1.3 per cent, while online retail\nsales of goods and services still increased by 5.2 per cent. This means\nthat digital channels continue to grow amidst much weaker aggregate\nconsumption.<\/p>\n
Indonesia is certainly not China. Economic structures, public income,\nand the stage of digital market development differ. However, the lesson\nis vital: high digital penetration does not make e-commerce immune to\npurchasing power pressures. When demand growth slows, competition may\nshift from creating new markets to fighting for the same consumers\nthrough price and promotion.<\/p>\n
Indonesia actually possesses significant capital to avoid this trap.\nDigital payment infrastructure is developing very rapidly. In the second\nquarter of 2026, digital payment volume reached 16.07 billion\ntransactions, growing by 36.88 per cent annually; QRIS transactions\nsurged by 100.12 per cent. The challenge is ensuring that this ease of\npayment is accompanied by the ability of business actors to obtain\nadequate economic value.<\/p>\n
Therefore, the digitalisation of MSMEs must move from onboarding\ntowards upgrading and profitability. Having a marketplace account is not\nthe end of digital transformation. MSMEs truly move up the value chain\nwhen technology improves productivity, product quality, market access,\ndata literacy, financing, and ultimately, business margins.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/as-e-commerce-slows-down-time-to-build-a-healthier-ecosystem-1788170304", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }