ARF bid for a more secure and stable region<\/p>\n
By Bantarto Bandoro<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) was launched
\nduring the ASEAN Post Ministerial Meeting, which aimed at
\nbuilding mutual confidence, preserving stability and ensuring
\ngrowth in the Asia-Pacific region.<\/p>\n
The ARF will convene its third meeting in Jakarta on July 23.
\nIndonesia has been consistent in rallying support for the role of
\nthe ARF in managing post-Cold War security relations.<\/p>\n
Being the host of this year's ARF meeting, Indonesia must make
\nsure that the meeting produces significant results. Indonesia
\nmust also be sensitive to the fact that regional expectations of
\nthe ARF have grown.<\/p>\n
The thinking behind the idea of the ARF when it was first
\nlaunched in Singapore in July 1993 was to establish a cooperative
\nsecurity arrangement for the Asia-Pacific region.<\/p>\n
The ARF reflected the desire of Asia-Pacific countries to
\nensure a peaceful and stable political and security environment
\nfor the region and was described as constituting an integral part
\nof the ASEAN dialog process.<\/p>\n
The first two ARF meetings were considered successful because
\nan agreement was reached to continue the process of consultation
\nand dialog on political and security issues in the Asia-Pacific
\nregion.<\/p>\n
But different Asia-Pacific countries have different
\nexpectations of, and responses to, the ARF. The developed members
\nwant quick progress toward developing concrete measures of
\nsecurity cooperation.<\/p>\n
The ASEAN states have adopted a much more gradual, informal
\nand cautious approach. These differences have raised some doubts
\nas to how soon the ARF will be able to provide solutions to
\nregional security problems.<\/p>\n
ASEAN's position on the ARF role is reflected in the statement
\nmade by Indonesia's foreign minister, Ali Alatas, that \"the ARF
\nis not meant as an instrument to solve problems and is meant as a
\nconsultative forum.\" ASEAN's position on the pace of the ARF is
\nthat the progress will be evolutionary, providing a necessary
\n\"breathing space\" for the transition from the Cold War security
\nstructure in the Asia-Pacific to its future structure.<\/p>\n
However, security issues in the Asia-Pacific region will
\nbecome even more complex, which could lead one to raise doubts
\nabout the ARF's potential as the cornerstone of cooperative
\nsecurity in the region.<\/p>\n
Gerald Segal, a senior fellow at the London-based
\nInternational Institute of Strategic Studies, asserts that events
\nin Taiwan, Korea and the South China Sea make plain that the ARF
\nhas virtually no role. He adds that it is an optimistic illusion
\nto believe that the ARF can deal with such hard security issues
\n(Far Eastern Economic Review, May 2, 1996).<\/p>\n
While some are less enthusiastic about the future role of the
\nARF, others are convinced that, though it will move forward in an
\nevolutionary manner, the ARF is the most appropriate forum for
\nregional states to discuss common security issues. The best way
\nto cope with the future instabilities in the region is for the
\nARF to put on its agenda the security issues which have the
\ngreatest global implications, such as the long-standing Korean
\nimpasse, China's intentions and nuclear weapons proliferation.<\/p>\n
The task of the coming meeting is for the ARF to break new
\nground with security-enhancing proposals. This would mean that
\nthe ARF needs to choose a faster pace than some of the more
\ncautious ARF members (notably ASEAN) would prefer.<\/p>\n
As the host of the meeting, Jakarta needs to raise the
\nawareness of ARF members, particularly ASEAN, that the forum's
\nfuture role and reputation depend not on whether it can promote
\nhealthier alternatives to deterrence-based security strategies,
\nbut on its ability to accommodate the different security
\npriorities of the developed members.<\/p>\n
Even though it is in the driving seat of the ARF, ASEAN should
\nallow the major powers to assume a leading role in managing post-
\nCold War regional security.<\/p>\n
Jakarta should also assert that, since it continues to
\nregister support for the ARF and although ASEAN's method of
\nconsensus has been accepted, the ARF's future success and role
\nshould not be judged on its utility as a consultative forum, but
\non its ability to integrate as many countries in the Asia Pacific
\nas possible into a security process favored by the majority of
\nthe members.<\/p>\n
Thus, in spite of the view that the ARF should move gradually,
\nIndonesia, through the ARF meeting, should scatter seeds that
\nenable the ARF to move faster toward becoming a mechanism or
\nprocess for conflict resolution.<\/p>\n
The ARF has been identified as the best means to promote
\ncooperative security in the Asia-Pacific region. The challenge
\nfacing the ARF is how soon the Asia-Pacific region will witness
\nreal multilateralism, bearing in the mind that not all members of
\nARF, particularly China, are ready to go for multilateralism.<\/p>\n
It is generally agreed that the best way to balance China's
\ngrowing strength is to engage it in a multilateral dialog forum.
\nBut, for some countries in the region, balancing China through
\nunilateral, bilateral or multilateral means is still a security
\noption.<\/p>\n
Multilateralism cannot automatically deter balancing behavior.
\nBut one would agree that balancing behavior will still have to be
\nregulated in order to prevent it from having negative
\nimplications on regional order.<\/p>\n
Thus, Indonesia must table norms of inter-state behavior
\napplicable to all Asia-Pacific countries. If such norms can be
\ninitiated, then the regional order desired by the ARF founders
\ncan be realized. The forum's bid for a more secure region should
\nnot be constrained by the fact that it has little history of
\nregion-wide good will or cooperation on security issues.<\/p>\n
In other words, practical results are essential if regional
\nsecurity cooperation is to progress and the region's stability
\nenhanced.<\/p>\n
The writer is with the Department of International Affairs,
\nCSIS, Jakarta.<\/p>\n
Window A:<\/p>\n
Indonesia, through the ARF meeting, should scatter seeds that
\nenable the ARF to move faster toward becoming a mechanism or
\nprocess for conflict resolution.<\/p>\n
Window B:<\/p>\n
Indonesia must table norms of inter-state behavior applicable
\nto all Asia-Pacific countries.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/arf-bid-for-a-more-secure-and-stable-region-1447893297",
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"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
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