APEC's future direction largely depends on ASEAN<\/p>\n
By Edward Neilan<\/p>\n
Clinton 'victory lap' is sideshow to regional concerns;
\nJapan's role seen as crucial.<\/p>\n
TOKYO (JP): In the alphabet soup of Southeast Asian regional
\npolitics and economics, it is important to be aware of the subtle
\ndifferences between Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and
\nAssociation of Southeast Asia (ASEAN).<\/p>\n
Many will be attempting to employ this discernment while U.S.
\nPresident Bill Clinton takes his \"victory lap\" (based on domestic
\nevents) through Asia over the next few days, stopping at the
\nAPEC summit in Kuala Lumpur Nov. 15-17 and then briefly in Japan
\nand South Korea.<\/p>\n
ASEAN started with six members: Indonesia, Thailand,
\nSingapore, Malaysia, The Philippines and Brunei. Recently there
\nhave been added Myanmar (Burma), Vietnam and Laos.<\/p>\n
The next ASEAN summit will be held in Hanoi, Vietnam, on Dec.
\n15-16, one month after the annual APEC meeting. ASEAN was founded
\nwith high hopes--generally fulfilled--for a Third World alliance
\nor grouping that was based on common economic good, lack of
\nmilitary provocations and a pledge not to meddle in members'
\ndomestic political activities.<\/p>\n
Conspicuous by their absence in the grouping were nations
\nlike the United States, Britain, France, Australia and New
\nZealand. These old \"colonialists and imperialists\" had hoped the
\nsecurity grouping known as the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization
\n(SEATO) could be carried over as a regional security alliance.<\/p>\n
But the \"wisemen\" of ASEAN--among them former president
\nSoeharto of Indonesia, former president Marcos of The
\nPhilippines, Singapore's former prime minister Lee Kuan Yew, a
\nthen-young Malaysian politician named Mahathir Mohamad--preferred
\nnot to have a bunch of foreigners cluttering up the landscape in
\npositions of influence.<\/p>\n
Nor meddling in the \"Asian way of doing business,\" which
\nbarbarian Westerners persist in describing as \"corruption.\" This
\nparticular \"cultural pattern\" is ingrained, sometimes
\nungraciously called \"crony capitalism,\" and will be hard to
\nchange.<\/p>\n
But ASEAN never quite got around to realizing its potential
\nprosperity.<\/p>\n
Ultimately the leaders had to turn to the West again for the
\ncapital and big money management to help produce the \"Asian
\ntigers\" syndrome.<\/p>\n
Westerners were only too happy to oblige and seized the
\nopportunity to get back in the region in a big way, some looking
\nat security considerations and others pursuing the limits of
\navarice.<\/p>\n
Some give the idea for conception of APEC to onetime Australia
\nprime minister Robert Hawke or former U.S. secretary of state
\nJames Baker. Others spread the praise for inception around more
\nevenly.<\/p>\n
In November 1989 foreign ministers and economic ministers from
\n12 Asia-Pacific countries gathered in Canberra, Australia, for
\nthe inaugural ministerial meeting of APEC. The countries
\nrepresented were Australia, Canada, Japan, the Republic of Korea,
\nNew Zealand, United States, and the ASEAN members.<\/p>\n
The Tiananmen Square unpleasantries in China a few months
\nearlier had given space for formation of a grouping that did not
\nat first include China.<\/p>\n
After the November 1993 ministerial meeting in Seattle, U.S.
\nPresident Clinton hosted an economic leaders' meeting at which
\ntime the respective chiefs confirmed their shared understanding
\nof the regional economy and the issues facing it.<\/p>\n
It was a major victory for the United States; the West was
\nback in the game in Asia.<\/p>\n
Whether for good or bad, whether the West aggravated or
\neased the eventual crisis will be debated.<\/p>\n
APEC added Chile, China, Hong Kong, Mexico, Papua New Guinea,
\nTaiwan, and will welcome Peru, Russia and Vietnam next week.<\/p>\n
Only Laos and Myanmar from the region, both ASEAN members,
\nare excluded.<\/p>\n
ASEAN countries are the core problem because the confidence
\nfactor in them is so low.<\/p>\n
As World Bank President James D. Wolfensohn told me Tuesday,
\nbefore I introduced him as a breakfast speaker to the Foreign
\nCorrespondents' Club of Japan, \"At a time of crisis, everyone
\nwants to cooperate. What comes next is important.\"<\/p>\n
This week Asia is flooded with proposals from the West about
\nwhat to do to solve the Asian financial crisis. According to
\nWolfensohn, the headlines about \"a $50 billion infusion\" and \"a
\n$30 billion package\" aren't the answer. \"The answer lies in
\nimproving water supply and schools and roads and administrative
\nefficiency and transparency,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Two points: APEC will not go anywhere as a group unless its
\nASEAN core states first get on their feet.<\/p>\n
For the ASEAN-APEC recovery-growth cycle to commence, high-
\nvisibility America leadership is needed while Japan provides the
\ncash and on-the-ground know-how.<\/p>\n
Wolfensohn suggested that the Japan-bashers should take a
\nwalk. \"Read the facts not the headlines,\" the top international
\nbanker said. \"The Japanese government and people have responded
\nwonderfully. They should be complimented.\"<\/p>\n
The writer is a veteran Tokyo-based analyst of Northeast Asian
\naffairs and Media Fellow at Hoover Institution, Stanford
\nUniversity.<\/p>",
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"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
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