Analysts see little hope for Amien's bid<\/p>\n
Tiarma Siboro and M. Taufiqurrahman, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta<\/p>\n
While members of the alliance of parties initiated by
\npresidential hopeful Amien Rais are only at the stage of feeling
\nout each other's political stances, analysts say the coalition
\ncould increasing their bargaining position with the winners of
\nthe legislative election.<\/p>\n
It is, however, unlikely that Amien will be able to boost his
\nchances for the presidency through the "axis", they said, given
\nthat the July 5 presidential election will be the country's first
\never direct election in which people will vote for candidates,
\nnot parties.<\/p>\n
Moreover, Amien's National Mandate Party (PAN) did not enjoy a
\nparticularly strong showing in the legislative election,
\ncurrently standing in seventh place with 6.5 percent of the vote.<\/p>\n
In the "Save the Nation Axis", PAN is teaming up with parties
\nthat received more votes in the elections, such as the National
\nAwakening Party (PKB) with over 12 percent of the vote, and those
\nthat received fewer votes, including the Pioneers' Party which
\nhas earned the fewest votes in the general election with just
\n0.65 percent of the over 88 million votes already counted.<\/p>\n
Golkar and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P)
\nare still the two top vote getters with 20.96 percent and 19.72
\npercent of the vote respectively, with almost 60 percent of the
\nballots counted nationwide.<\/p>\n
Analyst Syamsudin Harris of the Indonesian Institute of
\nSciences (LIPI) said the formation of the axis was due in part to
\na lack of confidence among the leaders of the political parties,
\nincluding Amien, to run solo in the first round of the direct
\npresidential election on July 5.<\/p>\n
A runoff will take place in September if none of the
\npresidential candidates receives a clear majority of the vote.<\/p>\n
"I don't really understand his (Amien's) move, but he might
\nbelieve that his only chance (to become president) is to convince
\nthe public about his potential running mate, instead of coming up
\nwith an alternative political agenda. He could just as well go it
\nalone," he told The Jakarta Post.<\/p>\n
With over 5.7 million or 5 percent of the popular vote and
\nhaving gained well over the required 3 percent of seats in the
\n550-seat House of Representatives, PAN is eligible to nominate a
\npresidential candidate.<\/p>\n
Syamsudin also viewed the grouping as an attempt by the
\npolitical parties leader to block moves by their opponents and
\nincrease their bargaining position in the horse-trading that will
\ntake place in the House.<\/p>\n
He was quick to add that Amien was also playing a losing game
\nbecause his potential running mates were leaders of political
\nparties that won more votes than PAN.<\/p>\n
Analyst Bachtiar Effendy said if Amien's axis teamed up with
\nGolkar, and also the upstart political vehicle of former security
\nminister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, the Democratic Party, it "will
\nserve as an indispensable political machinery to mobilize support
\nfor Amien and his running mate in the direct presidential
\nelection". He added that a likely pairing would be Amien and
\nGolkar Party leader Akbar Tandjung.<\/p>\n
However, should Amien lose his presidential bid, Bachtiar said
\nhe and his coalition should shun the horse trading in the House
\nand begin building a credible opposition.<\/p>\n
Amien dismissed on Wednesday the possibility of having either
\nSusilo or Akbar as his running mate, noting that both men had
\npresidential ambitions of their own. In addition, their parties
\nhad much stronger showings in the elections than PAN, making it
\nunlikely they would accept an offer to serve as Amien's vice
\npresident.<\/p>",
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