Analysts question pollsters' influence ahead of runoff<\/p>\n
Ridwan Max Sijabat, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta<\/p>\n
The credibility of Washington-based International Foundation for
\nElection Systems (IFES) and other independent pollsters have bee
\nquestioned ahead of the Sept. 20 election runoff, with analysts
\nsaying their opinion polls have been misleading.<\/p>\n
Eka Ginting, an information technology expert, said the IFES
\nand other pollsters should explain to the public the inaccurate
\nresults of their polls predicting the presidential candidates who
\nwould advance to the final round.<\/p>\n
\"Without any intention to restrict the pollsters' freedom of
\nexpression, it would not be ethical if the pollsters ...
\npublicized their survey results in the mass media, because this
\nwould certainly influence voters in the runoff,\" he told The
\nJakarta Post on Wednesday after a seminar on opinion polls and
\nthe presidential election.<\/p>\n
He said the results from polls conducted by the IFES and the
\nIndonesian Survey Institute (LSI) prior to the April 5
\nlegislative election and the July 5 presidential election had
\nraised confusion among the public, since they proved to be vastly
\ndifferent from the elections' official results.<\/p>\n
\"From the perspective of scientific methodology, the results
\nof the IFES' and LSI's opinion polls are not accountable, because
\nthe sampling of the population was not proportionate nor
\nrepresentative, while the margin of error was very high,\" he
\nsaid, but did not elaborate further.<\/p>\n
He said the IFES' 14th Survey gave the misleading prediction
\nthat Susilo-Kalla would win 43.5 percent of votes and Wiranto-
\nSolahuddin would place second, while Megawati-Hasyim would not
\nmake it to the runoff.<\/p>\n
He stressed that the IFES was too big an organization to be
\nswayed by any candidate to influence voters through its polls,
\n\"so it should explain to the public what was wrong with the
\nmethodology it employed in conducting its polls\".<\/p>\n
Mochtar Pabottingi, a political analyst at the Indonesian
\nInstitute of Sciences, concurred and said the two institutions'
\ncredibility were at stake.<\/p>\n
He said the IFES should explain to the public the
\ncontroversial results of its survey to maintain its credibility
\nand prove its strong commitment to the development of a true
\ndemocracy in Indonesia.<\/p>\n
He added the results of LSI's polls had been widely questioned
\nbecause a member of the Susilo-Kalla campaign team was at the
\ninstitute.<\/p>\n
\"But let the public be the judge. Independent pollsters that
\npublish subjective results of opinion polls will lose their
\ncredibility, and the public will not heed them any more,\" he
\nsaid.<\/p>\n
Mochtar also said the pollsters' controversial results would
\nnot be of much influence on voters in the upcoming runoff and
\nthus, the General Elections Commission should not bow to pressure
\nfrom the government to restrict their activities.<\/p>",
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