Analysts less upbeat on 2001 car sales<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): Automotive market analysts are less than upbeat
\nabout 2001 domestic car sales, challenging the optimistic
\nforecast by the Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries
\n(Gaikindo).<\/p>\n
Ferry Hartoyo of securities firm PT Vickers Ballas Tamara said
\non Friday this year's car sales would fall by about 15 percent to
\nabout 255,000 units from last year's 300,000 units.<\/p>\n
\"All macroeconomic indicators this year will tend to pressure
\ncar sales to a lower level than last year's,\" Ferry told The
\nJakarta Post.<\/p>\n
He said the decline of the rupiah against the US dollar and
\ndomestic political uncertainty were among the negative factors
\naffecting car sales this year.<\/p>\n
Gaikindo revised upward on Thursday its 2001 sale forecast to
\n280,000 units, from the initial forecast of 250,000 units it made
\nin January.<\/p>\n
Association chairman Bambang Trisulo said the more optimistic
\nforecast was based on better-than-expected sales in April and
\nMay.<\/p>\n
But Ferry said the weaker rupiah had pushed automobile prices
\nup, which would in turn cut demand. \"The local currency has
\ndropped by 11 percent to about Rp 11,300 per dollar from Rp 9,525
\nearlier this year,\" he said.<\/p>\n
He added that the ongoing political uncertainty would
\ndiscourage people from buying cars.<\/p>\n
Another analyst at a foreign brokerage firm also expressed
\npessimism about domestic car sales this year, voicing similar
\narguments.<\/p>\n
\"There will be a slight technical rebound (in sales) after the
\nMPR's special session. But it will only be temporary, as
\npolitical uncertainty may still prevail,\" he said, referring to
\nthe People's Consultative Assembly, the country's highest
\nlegislative body, which will hold a special session on Aug. 1
\nthat could lead to the removal of embattled President Abdurrahman
\nWahid.<\/p>\n
Some fear that if the Assembly holds the special session, it
\nwill trigger wider conflicts between the President's supporters
\nand opponents.<\/p>\n
The analyst said car sales in the second half of the year
\nwould be below the first half figure of about 148,000 units.<\/p>\n
Gaikindo said car sales in the first half of the year were
\nbetter than expected because of stronger sales in April and May,
\nat about 29,000 units per month compared to the initial forecast
\nof 22,000 units.<\/p>\n
Bambang said people rushed to buy cars during this two-month
\nperiod in anticipation of coming higher prices, as the government
\nearlier announced plans to introduce higher value added taxes
\n(VAT), luxury taxes and import taxes. The government later
\ndropped plans to increase the VAT.<\/p>\n
Sales in April and May led some Gaikindo members to forecast
\n2001 car sales would equal last year's figure.<\/p>\n
Automotive industry observer Soehari Sargo said the solid
\nsales in April and May could not last because consumers'
\npurchasing power had not yet recovered to precrisis levels.<\/p>\n
\"Sales will decline as soon as the market can no longer absorb
\nthe products,\" he said.(03)<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/analysts-less-upbeat-on-2001-car-sales-1447893297",
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